C. -250 low (0.6) еxpand 2 - 230 small high (0.45 don't expand 183 modest (0.4) 1 40 advertise sizable 220 (0.6) large „low (0.6) 3 don't advertise 45 high (0.4) 300

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
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Question
Oc.
250 Q
250 Q
low (0.6)
low (0.6)
expand
expand
2
230
2
230
small
small
Thigh (0.4)
high (0.4)
don't expand
183
don't expand
183
modest (0.4)
40
modest (0.4)
40
1
1
sizab
sizable
220
(0.6)
advertise
advertise
220
(0.6)
large
low (0.6)
large
low (0.6)
45
45
don't advertise
don't advertise
high (0.4)
high (0.4)
300
300
Transcribed Image Text:Oc. 250 Q 250 Q low (0.6) low (0.6) expand expand 2 230 2 230 small small Thigh (0.4) high (0.4) don't expand 183 don't expand 183 modest (0.4) 40 modest (0.4) 40 1 1 sizab sizable 220 (0.6) advertise advertise 220 (0.6) large low (0.6) large low (0.6) 45 45 don't advertise don't advertise high (0.4) high (0.4) 300 300
Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and
demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to
be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $183,000.
If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local
advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $45,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will either be modest or sizable, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If the response
is modest, the payoff is $40,000. If it is sizable, the payoff is $220,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000.
a) What should Cheryl do to maximize her expected payoff?
Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that all payoffs are in $1,000s.
O A.
В.
250
250 Q
low (0.4)
low (0.6)
expand
expand
2
230
2
230
small
high (0.6)
large
high (0.4)
don't expand
183
don't expand
183
modest (0.6)
40
modest (0.4)
40
1
sizable
220
(0.4)
sizable
advertise
advertise
220
(0.6)
large
low (0.6)
small
low (0.6)
45
3
don't advertise
45
don't advertise
high (0.4)
high (0.4)
300
300
Transcribed Image Text:Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $183,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $45,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will either be modest or sizable, with probabilities of 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If the response is modest, the payoff is $40,000. If it is sizable, the payoff is $220,000. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand proves to be high, then no advertising is needed and the payoff is $300,000. a) What should Cheryl do to maximize her expected payoff? Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that all payoffs are in $1,000s. O A. В. 250 250 Q low (0.4) low (0.6) expand expand 2 230 2 230 small high (0.6) large high (0.4) don't expand 183 don't expand 183 modest (0.6) 40 modest (0.4) 40 1 sizable 220 (0.4) sizable advertise advertise 220 (0.6) large low (0.6) small low (0.6) 45 3 don't advertise 45 don't advertise high (0.4) high (0.4) 300 300
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