A bank classifies its customer as either good or bad credit risks. Based on historical data, the bank observed that 1% of good credit risks and 10% of bad credit risks are late in paying their loan in any given month. A new customer was approved for a loan at this bank. From the credit agency checking, the bank believes that there is a 70% chance the customer will turn out to be a good credit risk. (a) Suppose that this customer's account is overdue in the first month. Calculate the probability of this customer's creditworthiness. (b) If the customer's account is also overdue in the second month, calculate the probability of this customer's creditworthiness. (c) Comment on the bank's opinion of this customer's creditworthiness.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A bank classifies its customer as either good or bad credit risks. Based on
historical data, the bank observed that 1% of good credit risks and 10% of bad
credit risks are late in paying their loan in any given month. A new customer was
approved for a loan at this bank. From the credit agency checking, the bank
believes that there is a 70% chance the customer will turn out to be a good credit
risk.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Suppose that this customer's account is overdue in the first month.
Calculate the probability of this customer's creditworthiness.
If the customer's account is also overdue in the second month, calculate
the probability of this customer's creditworthiness.
Comment on the bank's opinion of this customer's creditworthiness.
Transcribed Image Text:A bank classifies its customer as either good or bad credit risks. Based on historical data, the bank observed that 1% of good credit risks and 10% of bad credit risks are late in paying their loan in any given month. A new customer was approved for a loan at this bank. From the credit agency checking, the bank believes that there is a 70% chance the customer will turn out to be a good credit risk. (a) (b) (c) Suppose that this customer's account is overdue in the first month. Calculate the probability of this customer's creditworthiness. If the customer's account is also overdue in the second month, calculate the probability of this customer's creditworthiness. Comment on the bank's opinion of this customer's creditworthiness.
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