Actual Problem: Sherlock Holmes is called in to investigate a missing document from themayor's office. A look at her meeting calendar suggests that she meets with a local politician15% of the time, her business partner 30% of the time, her assistant 50% of the time, and alocal citizen 5% of the time. Sherlock Holmes conducts some interviews and estimates thatwhenever they meet:• there is a 5% chance the politician steals the document;• there is a 3% chance the business partner wants the document;• there is a 1% chance that the assistant misplaces the document;• there is a 5% chance that the local citizen accidentally takes the document.Who is most likely to have caused the missing document? Hint: define the events S{document is missing}, E;each person i and then we need to find the person who has the largest conditional probability.Hint: you'll need to use Baye's rule.%3D{meeting was with person i}. We are looking for P(E;|S) for||

Answered: Actual Problem: Sherlock Holmes is…

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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2. A venture capitalist, willing to invest $1,000,000, has three investments to choose from. The first investment, a software company, has a 11% chance of returning $5,000,000 profit, a 44% chance of returning $1,000,000 profit, and a 45% chance of losing the million dollars. The second company, a hardware company, has a 12% chance of returning $6,000,000 profit, a 24% chance of returning $2,500,000 profit, and a 64% chance of losing the million dollars. The third company, a biotech firm, has a 8% chance of returning $7,000,000 profit, a 37% of no profit or loss, and a 55% chance of losing the million dollars.Order the expected values from smallest to largest. first, third, second third, second, first second, first, third first, second, third second, third, first third, first, second
QUESTION 8 A hotel employs 100 managers and staff. To ascertain their employees' opinions of a proposed health insurance plan, 30 employees are surveyed at random. The proportion of the sampled 30 employees who favor the health insurance plan represents a statistic in this scenario. O True O False
A particular gambling game pays 4 to 1 and has a 20% chance to win. Someone will bet $10, 125 times, and keep track of the total amount won or lost. Which of the following boxes will produce the right answers? Check ALL answers that apply. a. 1 ticket labeled $10 and 4 tickets labeled -$10 b. 20 tickets labeled $10 and 80 tickets labeled -$10 c. 20 tickets labeled 1 and 80 tickets labeled 0 d. 1 ticket labeled $40 and 4 tickets labeled -$10 e. 20 tickets labeled $40 and 80 tickets labeled -$10 f. 1 ticket labeled 1 and 4 tickets labeled 0
Cable TV choices: A telecommunications company provided its cable TV subscribers with free access to a new sports channel for a period of one month. It then chose a sample of 415 television viewers and asked them whether they would be willing to pay an extra $10 per month to continue to access the channel. A total of 25 of the 415 replied that they would be willing to pay. The marketing director of the company claims that less than 10% of all its subscribers would continue subscribing. Can you conclude that the director's claim is true? Use the α = 0.01 level of significance with the P-value method and Excel.
Democratic and Republican presidential state primary elections differ in the way winning candidates are awarded delegates. In Republican states, the winner is awarded all the state's delegates; conversely, the Democratic state winner is awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes. This difference led to an article on making your vote count. Consider scenario where you are one of five county commissioners voting on an issue, where each commissioner is equally likely to vote for or against. Complete parts and b below. a. Your vote (the decisive vote) counts only if the other four voters split, 2 in favor and 2 against. Use the binomial distribution to find the probability that your vote counts. The probability that your vote counts is 0.375. (Type an integer or a decimal. Do not round.) b. If you convince two other commissioners to "vote in bloc" (all agree to vote among yourselves first, and whatever the majority decides is the way all three will vote, guaranteeing that…
A certain bank issues customers with two types of credit card: V or M. A survey of customers at the bank showed that 50% of customers have a credit card of type V, 40% have a card of type M and 35% do not have a credit card at all. What is the percentage of customers who have both V and M credit cards? O a. 25% b.15% O C. 10%% O d. 209%
Can you please help me on 19 and 20?
Democratic and Republican presidential state primary elections differ in the way winning candidates are awarded delegates. In Republican states, the winner is awarded all the state's delegates; conversely, the Democratic state winner is awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes. This difference led to an article on making your vote count. Consider a scenario where you are one of five county commissioners voting on an issue, where each commissioner is equally likely to vote for or against. Complete parts a and b below. G a. Your vote (the decisive vote) counts only if the other four voters split, 2 in favor and 2 against. Use the binomial distribution to find the probability that your vote counts. The probability that your vote counts is (Type an integer or a decimal. Do not round.)
2) Suppose you are a judge hearing a criminal appeal. Before looking into the facts of the case, you would like to get a sense of how likely it is that a given defendant was wrongfully convicted at trial. You know that trial juries are not perfect. They only convict guilty defendants 90% of the time, and wrongly convict innocent defendants 10% of the time. You also assess that 75% of the defendants who are brought to trial are actually guilty of their crimes. Using Bayes' rule, determine the probability that a particular defendant is really innocent, given that he or she was convicted by a jury
A market research group is interested in estimating the market share of three airline companies, A, B and C, operating on a particular flight path. These three airlines are the only companies operating on this route. Airline B claim that they have 50% of the business with the remaining percentage shared equally amongst airlines A and C, i.e. 25% each. The market research group decide to carry out an independent study and question a random sample of 97 people visiting an airport on a particular day. Each person was given price, timetables and service details of flights on this route for each of the three airlines. Provided with this information they were asked to select their airline of choice.The survey revealed the following observed frequencies Airline A - 26 Aurline B - 49 Airline C - 22 Test if there is any evidence to suggest that the airline's claim is incorrect, at significance level α = 0.05. Complete the test by answering the following questions : Which of the following is the…
Can someone please explain it to me ASAP??!!
okson. Question #5 For students with last names beginning with U-Z: There is some evidence suggesting that you are likely to improve your test score if you rethink and change answers on a multiple-choice exam (Johnston, 1975). To examine this phenomenon, a teacher gave the same final exam to two sections of a psychology course. The students in one section were told to turn in their exams immediately after finishing, without changing any of their answers. In the other section, students were encouraged to reconsider each question and to change answers whenever they felt it was appropriate. Before the final exam, the teacher had matched 9 students in the first section with 9 students in the second section based on their midterm grades. For example, a student in the no- change section with an 89 on the midterm exam was matched with student in the change section who also had an 89 on the midterm. The difference between the two final exam grades for each matched pair was computed and the…

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