8 Selling electric power. Researchers for the University of Maryland Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering used stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal load estimates for electric power (Journal of Energy Engineering, Apr. 2004). One objective was to determine the probability that a supplier of electric power would reach or exceed a specific net profit goal for varied load estimates. All load estimates in the study yielded a probability of .95. Consider two different suppliers of electric power (Supplier A and Supplier B) acting independently. a. What is the probability that both suppliers reach their net profit goal? b. What is the probability that neither supplier reaches its net profit goal? c. What is the probability that either Supplier A or Supplier B reaches its net profit goal?
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
8 Selling electric power. Researchers for the University of
Maryland Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering used stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal load estimates for electric power (Journal of
Energy Engineering, Apr. 2004). One objective was to determine the
would reach or exceed a specific net profit goal for varied
load estimates. All load estimates in the study yielded a
probability of .95. Consider two different suppliers of electric power (Supplier A and Supplier B) acting independently.
a. What is the probability that both suppliers reach their
net profit goal?
b. What is the probability that neither supplier reaches its
net profit goal?
c. What is the probability that either Supplier A or Supplier
B reaches its net profit goal?
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