5 Calanute Beach Resort, a fictional seaside luxury hotel | in Goa, India, had the following occupancy rates for 12 months in 2014 Occupancy Rate Month in % 1 65 68 3 72 4 75 78 83 7 92 8 88 76 10 65 11 64 12 69 Forecast the occupancy rate for January2015 using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.4. Assume a that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 65%. b Forecast the January 2015 occupancy rate using trend-adjusted simple exponential smoothing with a -0.4 and B-0.2. Assume that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 68% and the trend factor for Month 2 is T2 0.

5 Calanute Beach Resort, a fictional seaside luxury hotel | in Goa, India, had the following occupancy rates for 12 months in 2014 Occupancy Rate Month in % 1 65 68 3 72 4 75 78 83 7 92 8 88 76 10 65 11 64 12 69 Forecast the occupancy rate for January2015 using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.4. Assume a that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 65%. b Forecast the January 2015 occupancy rate using trend-adjusted simple exponential smoothing with a -0.4 and B-0.2. Assume that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 68% and the trend factor for Month 2 is T2 0.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

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Question

### Calanute Beach Resort Occupancy Analysis

**Calanute Beach Resort**, a fictional seaside luxury hotel located in Goa, India, recorded the following occupancy rates over a 12-month period in 2014:

#### Monthly Occupancy Rates

| **Month** | **Occupancy Rate (%)** |
|-----------|-------------------------|
| 1 | 65 |
| 2 | 68 |
| 3 | 72 |
| 4 | 75 |
| 5 | 78 |
| 6 | 83 |
| 7 | 92 |
| 8 | 88 |
| 9 | 76 |
| 10 | 65 |
| 11 | 64 |
| 12 | 69 |

### Exercise Questions

**a. Forecast the occupancy rate for January 2015 using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. Assume that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 65%.**

**b. Forecast the January 2015 occupancy rate using trend-adjusted simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 and β = 0.2. Assume that the forecast for Month 2 (F2) is 68% and the trend factor for Month 2 is T2 = 0.**

### Explanation of Graphs/Diagrams

There are no graphs or diagrams provided in the data. The data consists purely of numerical values representing the occupancy rates for each month in 2014. The forecasting questions require the use of specific formulas for exponential smoothing and trend-adjusted exponential smoothing.

### Forecasting Formulas

1. **Simple Exponential Smoothing:**
\[
F_{t+1} = \alpha \cdot A_t + (1 - \alpha) \cdot F_t
\]
Where:
- $ A_t $ = Actual value in period t
- $ F_t $ = Forecasted value for period t
- $ α $ = Smoothing constant

2. **Trend-Adjusted Simple Exponential Smoothing:**
\[
F_{t+1} = (S_t + T_t)
\]
\[
S_t = \alpha \cdot A_t + (1 - \alpha) \cdot (S_{t-

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