Prepare a time-series plot of the data, and visually inspect that plot to determine the characteristics you see in this series. Use an exponential smoothing model to develop a forecast of sales for the next 12 months, and explain why you selected that model. Plot the actual and forecast values. Determine the MAPE for your model during the historical period.
Prepare a time-series plot of the data, and visually inspect that plot to determine the characteristics you see in this series. Use an exponential smoothing model to develop a forecast of sales for the next 12 months, and explain why you selected that model. Plot the actual and forecast values. Determine the MAPE for your model during the historical period.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
Related questions
Question
Prepare a time-series plot of the data, and visually inspect that plot to determine the characteristics you see in this series.
Use an exponential smoothing model to develop a forecast of sales for the next 12 months, and explain why you selected that model. Plot the actual and forecast values. Determine the MAPE for your model during the historical period.
Transcribed Image Text:Date
2-Jan
2-Feb
2-Mar
2-Apr
2-May
2-Jun
2-Jul
2-Aug
2-Sep
2-Oct
2-Nov
2-Dec
3-Jan
3-Feb
3-Mar
3-Apr
3-May
3-Jun
3-Jul
3-Aug
3-Sep
3-Oct
3-Nov
3-Dec
4-Jan
4-Feb
Sales
2,580
2,616
2,838
2,985
3,258
3,107
3,097
3,288
3,077
3,429
4,011
5,739
2,877
2,885
3,259
3,454
3,771
3,667
3,743
3,792
3,699
4,082
4,727
6,672
3,560
3,575
4-Mar
4-Apr
4-May
4-Jun
4-Jul
4-Aug
4-Sep
4-Oct
4-Nov
4-Dec
5-Jan
5-Feb
5-Mar
5-Apr
5-May
5-Jun
5-Jul
5-Aug
5-Sep
5-Oct
5-Nov
5-Dec
6-Jan
6-Feb
6-Mar
6-Apr
4,220
4,282
4,594
4,691
4,629
4,795
4,632
5,067
5,746
7,965
4,317
4,118
4,855
4,999
5,343
5,392
5,274
5,435
5,217
5,460
6,288
8,403
4,758
4,914
5,431
5,474
6-May
6-Jun
6-Jul
6-Aug
6-Sep
6-Oct
6-Nov
6-Dec
7-Jan
7-Feb
7-Mar
7-Apr
7-May
7-Jun
7-Jul
7-Aug
7-Sep
7-Oct
7-Nov
7-Dec
8-Jan
8-Feb
8-Mar
8-Apr
8-May
8-Jun
6,124
6,027
5,914
6,244
5,808
6,373
6,994
9,018
5,694
5,431
6,240
6,101
6,849
6,694
6,815
6,948
6,450
7,190
7,738
9,769
6,665
6,400
7,277
7,584
8,169
8,179
8-Jul
8-Aug
8-Sep
8-Oct
8-Nov
8-Dec
9-Jan
9-Feb
9-Mar
9-Apr
9-May
9-Jun
9-Jul
9-Aug
9-Sep
9-Oct
9-Nov
9-Dec
10-Jan
10-Feb
10-Mar
10-Apr
10-May
10-Jun
10-Jul
10-Aug
8,118
8,284
7,962
8,636
9,433
11,786
8,082
7,761
8,994
8,803
9,712
9,843
9,769
9,944
9,582
10,209
11,115
14,995
9,183
9,478
10,751
10,518
11,349
11,728
11,590
11,871
10-Sep
10-Oct
10-Nov
10-Dec
11-Jan
11-Feb
11-Mar
11-Apr
11-May
11-Jun
11-Jul
11-Aug
11-Sep
11-Oct
11-Nov
11-Dec
12-Jan
12-Feb
12-Mar
12-Apr
12-May
12-Jun
12-Jul
12-Aug
12-Sep
12-Oct
11,336
11,986
13,130
16,694
11,195
10,919
12,389
12,619
13,489
13,620
13,438
14,084
13,172
14,040
15,759
19,992
13,162
13,394
15,285
14,467
16,086
16,027
15,622
16,360
14,714
15,894
12-Nov
12-Dec
13-Jan
13-Feb
13-Mar
13-Apr
13-May
13-Jun
13-Jul
13-Aug
13-Sep
13-Oct
13-Nov
13-Dec
14-Jan
14-Feb
14-Mar
14-Apr
14-May
14-Jun
14-Jul
14-Aug
14-Sep
14-Oct
14-Nov
14-Dec
18,152
22,089
15,161
15,342
16,997
16,623
18,064
17,605
17,746
18,907
16,735
18,146
20,336
24,665
17,686
17,908
18,691
19,030
20,623
19,596
20,122
20,029
18,669
20,518
21,967
27,584
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
16-Mar
16-Apr
16-May
16-Jun
16-Jul
16-Aug
16-Sep
16-Oct
16-Nov
16-Dec
17-Jan
17-Feb
17-Mar
17-Apr
17-May
17-Jun
17-Jul
19,315
19,186
21,211
20,985
22,385
22,223
22,602
22,456
21,418
23,092
24,598
30,706
21,692
21,699
23,402
24,046
24,881
24,602
24,631
24,831
23,603
24,608
26,705
34,023
23,837
23,438
26,305
25,429
27,152
27,218
26,722
Expert Solution
Step 1: Write the given information
Given the data as
| Date | Sales | Date | Sales | Date | Sales | Date | Sales |
| 2-Jan | 2580 | 6-May | 6124 | 10-Sep | 11336 | 15-Jan | 19315 |
| 2-Feb | 2616 | 6-Jun | 6027 | 10-Oct | 11986 | 15-Feb | 19186 |
| 2-Mar | 2838 | 6-Jul | 5914 | 10-Nov | 13130 | 15-Mar | 21211 |
| 2-Apr | 2985 | 6-Aug | 6244 | 10-Dec | 16694 | 15-Apr | 20985 |
| 2-May | 3258 | 6-Sep | 5808 | 11-Jan | 11195 | 15-May | 22385 |
| 2-Jun | 3107 | 6-Oct | 6373 | 11-Feb | 10919 | 15-Jun | 22223 |
| 2-Jul | 3097 | 6-Nov | 6994 | 11-Mar | 12389 | 15-Jul | 22602 |
| 2-Aug | 3288 | 6-Dec | 9018 | 11-Apr | 12619 | 15-Aug | 22456 |
| 2-Sep | 3077 | 7-Jan | 5694 | 11-May | 13489 | 15-Sep | 21418 |
| 2-Oct | 3429 | 7-Feb | 5431 | 11-Jun | 13620 | 15-Oct | 23092 |
| 2-Nov | 4011 | 7-Mar | 6240 | 11-Jul | 13438 | 15-Nov | 24598 |
| 2-Dec | 5739 | 7-Apr | 6101 | 11-Aug | 14084 | 15-Dec | 30706 |
| 3-Jan | 2877 | 7-May | 6849 | 11-Sep | 13172 | 16-Jan | 21692 |
| 3-Feb | 2885 | 7-Jun | 6694 | 11-Oct | 14040 | 16-Feb | 21699 |
| 3-Mar | 3259 | 7-Jul | 6815 | 11-Nov | 15759 | 16-Mar | 23402 |
| 3-Apr | 3454 | 7-Aug | 6948 | 11-Dec | 19992 | 16-Apr | 24046 |
| 3-May | 3771 | 7-Sep | 6450 | 12-Jan | 13162 | 16-May | 24881 |
| 3-Jun | 3667 | 7-Oct | 7190 | 12-Feb | 13394 | 16-Jun | 24602 |
| 3-Jul | 3743 | 7-Nov | 7738 | 12-Mar | 15285 | 16-Jul | 24631 |
| 3-Aug | 3792 | 7-Dec | 9769 | 12-Apr | 14467 | 16-Aug | 24831 |
| 3-Sep | 3699 | 8-Jan | 6665 | 12-May | 16086 | 16-Sep | 23603 |
| 3-Oct | 4082 | 8-Feb | 6400 | 12-Jun | 16027 | 16-Oct | 24608 |
| 3-Nov | 4727 | 8-Mar | 7277 | 12-Jul | 15622 | 16-Nov | 26705 |
| 3-Dec | 6672 | 8-Apr | 7584 | 12-Aug | 16360 | 16-Dec | 34023 |
| 4-Jan | 3560 | 8-May | 8169 | 12-Sep | 14714 | 17-Jan | 23837 |
| 4-Feb | 3575 | 8-Jun | 8179 | 12-Oct | 15894 | 17-Feb | 23438 |
| 4-Mar | 4220 | 8-Jul | 8118 | 12-Nov | 18152 | 17-Mar | 26305 |
| 4-Apr | 4282 | 8-Aug | 8284 | 12-Dec | 22089 | 17-Apr | 25429 |
| 4-May | 4594 | 8-Sep | 7962 | 13-Jan | 15161 | 17-May | 27152 |
| 4-Jun | 4691 | 8-Oct | 8636 | 13-Feb | 15342 | 17-Jun | 27218 |
| 4-Jul | 4629 | 8-Nov | 9433 | 13-Mar | 16997 | 17-Jul | 26722 |
| 4-Aug | 4795 | 8-Dec | 11786 | 13-Apr | 16623 | ||
| 4-Sep | 4632 | 9-Jan | 8082 | 13-May | 18064 | ||
| 4-Oct | 5067 | 9-Feb | 7761 | 13-Jun | 17605 | ||
| 4-Nov | 5746 | 9-Mar | 8994 | 13-Jul | 17746 | ||
| 4-Dec | 7965 | 9-Apr | 8803 | 13-Aug | 18907 | ||
| 5-Jan | 4317 | 9-May | 9712 | 13-Sep | 16735 | ||
| 5-Feb | 4118 | 9-Jun | 9843 | 13-Oct | 18146 | ||
| 5-Mar | 4855 | 9-Jul | 9769 | 13-Nov | 20336 | ||
| 5-Apr | 4999 | 9-Aug | 9944 | 13-Dec | 24665 | ||
| 5-May | 5343 | 9-Sep | 9582 | 14-Jan | 17686 | ||
| 5-Jun | 5392 | 9-Oct | 10209 | 14-Feb | 17908 | ||
| 5-Jul | 5274 | 9-Nov | 11115 | 14-Mar | 18691 | ||
| 5-Aug | 5435 | 9-Dec | 14995 | 14-Apr | 19030 | ||
| 5-Sep | 5217 | 10-Jan | 9183 | 14-May | 20623 | ||
| 5-Oct | 5460 | 10-Feb | 9478 | 14-Jun | 19596 | ||
| 5-Nov | 6288 | 10-Mar | 10751 | 14-Jul | 20122 | ||
| 5-Dec | 8403 | 10-Apr | 10518 | 14-Aug | 20029 | ||
| 6-Jan | 4758 | 10-May | 11349 | 14-Sep | 18669 | ||
| 6-Feb | 4914 | 10-Jun | 11728 | 14-Oct | 20518 | ||
| 6-Mar | 5431 | 10-Jul | 11590 | 14-Nov | 21967 | ||
| 6-Apr | 5474 | 10-Aug | 11871 | 14-Dec | 27584 |
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps with 20 images
Recommended textbooks for you
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:
9781119256830
Author:
Amos Gilat
Publisher:
John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305251809
Author:
Jay L. Devore
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305504912
Author:
Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:
9781119256830
Author:
Amos Gilat
Publisher:
John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305251809
Author:
Jay L. Devore
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305504912
Author:
Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E…
Statistics
ISBN:
9780134683416
Author:
Ron Larson, Betsy Farber
Publisher:
PEARSON
The Basic Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319042578
Author:
David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. Fligner
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319013387
Author:
David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. Craig
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman