The figure below illustrates monthly data over 10 years. What method would you expect would perform the best at forecasting the data series in period 121? Explain the (i) strengths of your selected method for this data and the (ii) weaknesses of alternative methods for this data. Consider the concepts of level, seasonality, trend, and noise in your answer.

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Author:Amos Gilat
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The figure below illustrates monthly data over 10 years.

What method would you expect would perform the best at forecasting the data series in period 121? Explain the (i) strengths of your selected method for this data and the (ii) weaknesses of alternative methods for this data. Consider the concepts of level, seasonality, trend, and noise in your answer.

 

1000
800
600
400
200
0
криминутнить
12
24
36
48
60
72
тими
84
96
108
120
Transcribed Image Text:1000 800 600 400 200 0 криминутнить 12 24 36 48 60 72 тими 84 96 108 120
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