5-37 Trevor Harty, an avid mountain biker, always wanted to start a business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor supplies. A little over 6 years ago, he and a silent partner opened a store called Hale and Harty Trail Bikes and Supplies. Growth was rapid in the first 2 years, but since that time, growth in sales has slowed a bit, as expected. The quarterly sales (in $1,000s) for the past 4 years are shown in the table below: QUARTER YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 1 274 282 282 296 2 172 178 182 210 130 136 134 158 162 168 170 182 3. 4-
5-37 Trevor Harty, an avid mountain biker, always wanted to start a business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor supplies. A little over 6 years ago, he and a silent partner opened a store called Hale and Harty Trail Bikes and Supplies. Growth was rapid in the first 2 years, but since that time, growth in sales has slowed a bit, as expected. The quarterly sales (in $1,000s) for the past 4 years are shown in the table below: QUARTER YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 1 274 282 282 296 2 172 178 182 210 130 136 134 158 162 168 170 182 3. 4-
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Transcribed Image Text:5-37 Trevor Harty, an avid mountain biker, always wanted to start a
business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor
supplies. A little over 6 years ago, he and a silent partner opened a
store called Hale and Harty Trail Bikes and Supplies. Growth was
rapid in the first 2 years, but since that time, growth in sales has
slowed a bit, as expected. The quarterly sales (in $1,000s) for the
past 4 years are shown in the table below:
QUARTER
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
1
274
282
282
296
2
172
178
182
210
3
130
136
134
158
4
162
168
170
182

Transcribed Image Text:a. Develop a trend line using the data in the table. Use this to
forecast sales for each quarter of year 5. What does the
slope of this line indicate?
b. Use the multiplicative decomposition model to incorporate
both trend and seasonal components into the forecast.
What does the slope of this line indicate?
c. Compare the slope of the trend line in part (a) to the slope
in the trend line for the decomposition model that was
based on the deseasonalized sales figures. Discuss why
these are so different and explain which is the better one to
use.
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