3. Problem 2.11 from the textbook An underground site is being considered for the storage of hazardous waste. Within the next 100 years, there is a 1% chance that the hazardous material could leak outside of the storage containment. Two adjacent towns, A and B, rely on groundwater for their water supply. The water to each town will be contaminated if there is a leakage in the waste storage and if there exists a continuous seam of sand between the storage containment and the given town. Observe that the presence of a continuous seam of sand would allow the contaminant to move freely and quickly access a region. waste storage site X L? A B Suppose there is a 2% chance of a continuous seam of sand from the storage site to A, and the probability of a continuous seam of sand to B is slightly higher and equals 3%. However, if a continuous seam of sand exists between X and A, the probability of a continuous seam of sand between X and B is increased to 20%. Assume that the event of leakage from the storage is independent of the presence of seams of sand. Consider the period over the next 100 years. (a) What is the probability that water in town A will be contaminated? (b) What is the probability that at least one of the two towns' water will be contaminated?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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is the attched question any of the following : 

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- law of total probability 

-bayes theorem

 

3. Problem 2.11 from the textbook
An underground site is being considered for the storage of hazardous waste.
Within the next 100 years, there is a 1% chance that the hazardous material could
leak outside of the storage containment. Two adjacent towns, A and B, rely on
groundwater for their water supply. The water to each town will be contaminated
if there is a leakage in the waste storage and if there exists a continuous seam of
sand between the storage containment and the given town. Observe that the
presence of a continuous seam of sand would allow the contaminant to move
freely and quickly access a region.
waste
storage
site X
L?
A
B
Suppose there is a 2% chance of a continuous seam of sand from the storage site
to A, and the probability of a continuous seam of sand to B is slightly higher and
equals 3%. However, if a continuous seam of sand exists between X and A, the
probability of a continuous seam of sand between X and B is increased to 20%.
Assume that the event of leakage from the storage is independent of the presence
of seams of sand. Consider the period over the next 100 years.
(a) What is the probability that water in town A will be contaminated?
(b) What is the probability that at least one of the two towns' water will be
contaminated?
Transcribed Image Text:3. Problem 2.11 from the textbook An underground site is being considered for the storage of hazardous waste. Within the next 100 years, there is a 1% chance that the hazardous material could leak outside of the storage containment. Two adjacent towns, A and B, rely on groundwater for their water supply. The water to each town will be contaminated if there is a leakage in the waste storage and if there exists a continuous seam of sand between the storage containment and the given town. Observe that the presence of a continuous seam of sand would allow the contaminant to move freely and quickly access a region. waste storage site X L? A B Suppose there is a 2% chance of a continuous seam of sand from the storage site to A, and the probability of a continuous seam of sand to B is slightly higher and equals 3%. However, if a continuous seam of sand exists between X and A, the probability of a continuous seam of sand between X and B is increased to 20%. Assume that the event of leakage from the storage is independent of the presence of seams of sand. Consider the period over the next 100 years. (a) What is the probability that water in town A will be contaminated? (b) What is the probability that at least one of the two towns' water will be contaminated?
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