28. Suppose that whether it rains in Charlotte tomorrow depends on the weather conditions for today and yesterday. Climate data from 2003 show that • If it rained yesterday and today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 58. • If it rained yesterday but not today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 29. • If it rained today but not yesterday, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 47. • If it did not rain yesterday or today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 31. Even though the weather depends on the last two days in this case, we can create a Markov chain model using the states I it rained yesterday and today 2 it rained yesterday but not today 3 it rained today but not yesterday 4 it did not rain yesterday or today So, for example, the probability of a transition from state I to state 1 is .58, and the transition from state 1 to state 3 is 0. a. Complete the creation of the transition matrix for this Markov chain. b. If it rains on Tuesday and is clear on Wednesday, what is the probability of no rain on the next weekend?

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Suppose that the weather in Charlotte is modeled using the
Markov chain in the attached picture. About how many
days elapse in Charlotte between consecutive rainy days?

28. Suppose that whether it rains in Charlotte tomorrow depends
on the weather conditions for today and yesterday. Climate
data from 2003 show that
• If it rained yesterday and today, then it will rain
tomorrow with probability 58.
• If it rained yesterday but not today, then it will rain
tomorrow with probability 29.
• If it rained today but not yesterday, then it will rain
tomorrow with probability 47.
• If it did not rain yesterday or today, then it will rain
tomorrow with probability 31.
Even though the weather depends on the last two days in this
case, we can create a Markov chain model using the states
I it rained yesterday and today
2 it rained yesterday but not today
3 it rained today but not yesterday
4 it did not rain yesterday or today
So, for example, the probability of a transition from state I to
state 1 is .58, and the transition from state 1 to state 3 is 0.
a. Complete the creation of the transition matrix for this
Markov chain.
b. If it rains on Tuesday and is clear on Wednesday, what is
the probability of no rain on the next weekend?
Transcribed Image Text:28. Suppose that whether it rains in Charlotte tomorrow depends on the weather conditions for today and yesterday. Climate data from 2003 show that • If it rained yesterday and today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 58. • If it rained yesterday but not today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 29. • If it rained today but not yesterday, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 47. • If it did not rain yesterday or today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability 31. Even though the weather depends on the last two days in this case, we can create a Markov chain model using the states I it rained yesterday and today 2 it rained yesterday but not today 3 it rained today but not yesterday 4 it did not rain yesterday or today So, for example, the probability of a transition from state I to state 1 is .58, and the transition from state 1 to state 3 is 0. a. Complete the creation of the transition matrix for this Markov chain. b. If it rains on Tuesday and is clear on Wednesday, what is the probability of no rain on the next weekend?
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