2. Moderna's November 16, 2020 press release reported interim results of its phase 3 vaccine trial. The report indicated that there were 95 total cases of COVID-19 il their study participants, of which 5 cases were in the treatment group, and con the vaccine is estimated to be 94.5% effective at preventing infection. Approxim numbers of participants were in each group. Let Y; = 1{case i was in the treatment group} be a random variable representing of the ith case, and let y; denote the observed value of Y;. Then:

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
icon
Related questions
Question
2. Moderna's November 16, 2020 press release reported interim results of its phase 3 COVID-19
vaccine trial. The report indicated that there were 95 total cases of COVID-19 illness among
their study participants, of which 5 cases were in the treatment group, and concluded that
the vaccine is estimated to be 94.5% effective at preventing infection. Approximately equal
numbers of participants were in each group.
Let Y;
1{case i was in the treatment group} be a random variable representing the outcome
of the ith case, and let yi denote the observed value of Y;. Then:
iid
Bernoulli(p), where p represents the conditional probability that a study
• Y1,..., Yn
participant received the vaccine, given that they contracted the virus;
• for the interim data, n =
95 and j = 5/95 2 0.0526.
(a) Compute an approximate 95% confidence interval for p.
(b) The press release reports a point estimate for efficacy. Efficacy is the relative reduction
in case rates, which can be approximated by 1-2, because the participant group sizes
are close. Find an approximate 95% confidence interval for efficacy by applying this
same transformation to the endpoints of your interval in the previous part.
(In other words, if your interval was (PL, PU), compute
valid because efficacy is a monotone function of p on (0, 1).)
PL 1-
1-PL
This is
1-pU
(c) Suppose the local paper summarizes the trial results by concluding that "94.5% of vac-
cinated adults develop immunity". Is this interpretation correct?
Transcribed Image Text:2. Moderna's November 16, 2020 press release reported interim results of its phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial. The report indicated that there were 95 total cases of COVID-19 illness among their study participants, of which 5 cases were in the treatment group, and concluded that the vaccine is estimated to be 94.5% effective at preventing infection. Approximately equal numbers of participants were in each group. Let Y; 1{case i was in the treatment group} be a random variable representing the outcome of the ith case, and let yi denote the observed value of Y;. Then: iid Bernoulli(p), where p represents the conditional probability that a study • Y1,..., Yn participant received the vaccine, given that they contracted the virus; • for the interim data, n = 95 and j = 5/95 2 0.0526. (a) Compute an approximate 95% confidence interval for p. (b) The press release reports a point estimate for efficacy. Efficacy is the relative reduction in case rates, which can be approximated by 1-2, because the participant group sizes are close. Find an approximate 95% confidence interval for efficacy by applying this same transformation to the endpoints of your interval in the previous part. (In other words, if your interval was (PL, PU), compute valid because efficacy is a monotone function of p on (0, 1).) PL 1- 1-PL This is 1-pU (c) Suppose the local paper summarizes the trial results by concluding that "94.5% of vac- cinated adults develop immunity". Is this interpretation correct?
Expert Solution
trending now

Trending now

This is a popular solution!

steps

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps

Blurred answer
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:
9781119256830
Author:
Amos Gilat
Publisher:
John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305251809
Author:
Jay L. Devore
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305504912
Author:
Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E…
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E…
Statistics
ISBN:
9780134683416
Author:
Ron Larson, Betsy Farber
Publisher:
PEARSON
The Basic Practice of Statistics
The Basic Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319042578
Author:
David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. Fligner
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319013387
Author:
David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. Craig
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman