.A.3 Andrea Dawson, a sandwich vendor at her town's an- nual Hard Rock Festival, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 BIG $22,000 $14,000 $9,000 SMALL -$2,000 $6,000 $4,000 The probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.3 for a big demand, 0.5 for an average demand, and 0.2 for a small demand. a) Determine the alternative that provides Andrea the greatest ex- pected monetary value (EMV). b) Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

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Answer A.3 a-b

an-
.A.3
Andrea Dawson, a sandwich vendor at her town's a
nual Hard Rock Festival, created a table of conditional values for
the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature
(size of crowd):
ALTERNATIVES
Large stock
Average stock
Small stock
STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND)
AVERAGE
$12,000
BIG
$22,000
$14,000
$9,000
$10,000
$8,000
SMALL
-$2,000
$6,000
$4,000
The probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.3 for
a big demand, 0.5 for an average demand, and 0.2 for a small
demand.
a) Determine the alternative that provides Andrea the greatest ex-
pected monetary value (EMV).
b) Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
Transcribed Image Text:an- .A.3 Andrea Dawson, a sandwich vendor at her town's a nual Hard Rock Festival, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) AVERAGE $12,000 BIG $22,000 $14,000 $9,000 $10,000 $8,000 SMALL -$2,000 $6,000 $4,000 The probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.3 for a big demand, 0.5 for an average demand, and 0.2 for a small demand. a) Determine the alternative that provides Andrea the greatest ex- pected monetary value (EMV). b) Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
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