. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013?
QUESTION 1
Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below.
1. Do the 2 month SMA
2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months
3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013?
4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors?
| Month | Actual Sales | Forecast |
| Jan 2012 | 438 | |
| Feb | 420 | |
| March | 414 | |
| Apr | 318 | |
| May | 306 | |
| June | 240 | |
| July | 240 | |
| Aug | 216 | |
| Sep | 198 | |
| Oct | 225 | |
| Nov | 270 | |
| Dec | 315 | |
| Jan 2013 | - |
QUESTION 2
Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below.
| Month | Demand (10s of bags) |
| 1 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 |
| 11 | 15 |
1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below:
a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA)
b. Weighted Moving Average WMA (4 months) , with latest month weight = 4, 2 months ago weight = 3, 3 months ago weight = 2, 4 months ago weight = 1
c. EMA with α=0.3, month 1 forecast = 4
2. Use MAD, MAPE and MSE to find out which forecast is the most accurate
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