Project-2-Spring-2021-v1.1

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The University of Tennessee, Knoxville *

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Apr 3, 2024

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Stat 201 – Project 2 – Spring 2021 Due Friday April 16, 2021 (By 11:59pm EDT, submitted to Canvas) 100 TOTAL POINTS Assignments submitted by 11:59pm EDT on Wednesday April 14 th 2021 will receive +7 bonus points Background: The data set for this project comes from an actual dataset on Bike Sharing! This version of the data has been modified only slightly. Make sure you are knowledgeable about the variables by reading the variable descriptions on page 6 . Getting Started: The data are found in the file “ Spring2021Project2.jmp ”, which is located in the Canvas Assignment. In real life situations, researchers would use all the data they have available. For this project, however, you will create a random sample from the data set so that each student will have different results, and therefore will be turning in a UNIQUE project. When you create a random sample from the original JMP file, JMP creates a new file that will be named “Subset of”. You should IMMEDIATELY save a copy of this file by clicking the “File” menu and choosing “Save As…”. Make sure you do not confuse your sample with the original file! Taking Screenshots: Please see the video at http://tinyurl.com/utk-screenshots for instructions on how to take selective screen shots on a PC or a Mac. Make sure your screenshots are cropped appropriately and are easy to read, poorly cropped/blurry screenshots will lose points. Tutorials: See the JMP tutorials on page 4 of this project for guidance with certain JMP tasks. Write-up: Include only the output necessary to answer the project questions . Any analysis which requires technology to answer a question must be provided as a screenshot. You have some creative liberties on the write up, but make sure you are consistent and the format is easy to read. You should put this output immediately before or after (but be consistent throughout your report) your comments regarding that specific part of the assignment (i.e., not just a series of printouts from JMP at the back of your write-up). The flow of the report must not include the question prompts as they are worded in this document but instead flow in the context of the report. You may use section headers as shown on page 5. Context of the write up: You are an intern for a bike sharing company and you have been asked by your supervisor to analyze and report on the data. Your department is responsible for making 1

data-driven decisions to improve the customer experience as well as expand and improve the company’s infrastructure. 2

Executive Summary Craft an executive summary of the analyses. An executive summary is a short section that summarizes the longer report in such a way that readers can rapidly become acquainted with the report . The executive summary should contain a brief statement of the problem covered in the major document, summarize key findings, and provide a solution to the problem based on the research. Section One Using the full JMP data file, get JMP to select a random sample of size of 100 plus the last 2 digits of your student ID number. For example, if your UT student ID number is 000314791, you will take a random sample of size 100 + 91 = 191. This will satisfy the Randomness Condition. Save this new data table as a JMP file and use it for the rest of the project. Do NOT include a screenshot. You only need to report the size of your sample. Note: Outside of this project, you would use different statistical methods outside of the scope of this class to analyze this time series data. For purposes of this assignment, assume that your sample does not violate the 10% Condition. Section Two a) Create a bar chart of the variable Weather . Your bar chart must be displayed in a horizontal layout and include the values (either count or percent) above the bars. Take a screenshot of the output (Bar chart and Frequencies). Include a short write-up of the different levels of the variable. b) Create a histogram of the variable AvgTemp . Your histogram must be displayed in a horizontal layout and have a count axis. Take a screenshot of the output. Interpret your graphic. Make sure you describe the shape and the appropriate center and spread of the distribution. c) Create Side by Side Box plots using Analyze>Fit Y by X for the variables Total Demand and Working Day . Add the “Quantiles” from the red triangle menu before taking a screenshot of the Side-by-Side boxplots with the quantile information. Write a short comparison of the two medians using numerical information. d) Create a contingency table and mosaic plot using Analyze>Fit Y by X with High Casual Demand as the Y variable and Weather as the X variable. In the Contingency Table, remove "Total %" and "Col %". Take a screenshot of the Mosaic plot and contingency table. Write a short conclusion about whether you think high casual demand is or is not affected by weather. Use only the comparison of Row% values to support your decision. 3

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Section Three a) Create a bar chart of the variable bar chart of the variable High Casual Demand and include a screenshot. Your bar chart must be displayed in a horizontal layout and include the values (either count or percent) above the bars. b) As stated above in Section One, you can assume the Randomization and 10% Condition are met. Clearly state the 3 rd condition you need to check to construct a confidence interval of the population proportion. Explain how this condition is or is not met and provide numerical justification. Regardless of your conclusion about this condition, continue to analyze the subsequent parts below. c) Use JMP to calculate a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion of days with a high causal demand. Include the screenshot of the JMP output. d) Interpret your confidence interval in context of the problem. Section Four a) Create a histogram of the variable Total Demand and include a screenshot. Your histogram must be displayed in a horizontal layout and have a count axis. Interpret your graphic. Make sure you describe the shape and the appropriate center and spread of the distribution. Comment on any unusual features or outliers you see (if you don’t see any unusual features or outliers, mention that). You do not need to remove any data points, only comment on them. b) As stated above in Section One, you can assume the Randomization and 10% Condition are met. Clearly state the 3rd condition you need to check to construct a confidence interval of the population mean. Explain how this condition is or is not met and provide numerical justification. Regardless of your conclusion about this condition, continue to analyze the subsequent parts below. c) Use JMP to calculate a 90.3% confidence interval for the population mean of the total demand of bike rentals. Include the screenshot of the JMP output. d) Interpret your confidence interval in context of the problem. Wrap Up/Future Research Craft a closing paragraph that brings new ideas related to this data going forward. Think of your closing paragraph as a job interview at the end of your internship. As in, what could the company be doing beyond what they currently did in this project. This might be new ideas with variables that already exist or new variables. Leverage your education to tie in further analyses with concepts from your major (or field of interest if undecided/exploratory). 4

Stat201 YouTube JMP Tutorials Heading Tutorial Notes Executive Summary/Conclusion CLICK HERE – Executive Summary Miscellaneous Topics Taking a Simple Random Sample CLICK HERE – Taking a Random Sample Inference About a Population Proportion Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion CLICK HERE - Confidence Interval of Population Proportion Graphical Display of Quantitative Data Histogram and Box Plot CLICK HERE – Histograms and Box Plots T-Tests (Confidence Intervals & Hypothesis Testing) One-Sample T-Test CLICK HERE - Single Mean Confidence Intervals and Tests Helpful Symbols H 0 H A  μ σ y < ≤ ≠ ≥ > ^ p √ pq n √ ^ p ^ q n σ √ n s √ n z * t df ¿ Non-Video JMP Tutorials can be found here : http://volweb.utk.edu/~ccwiek/201Tutorials/ 5

EXAMPLE OF PROJECT FLOW & STYLE (VERY ABBREVIATED) THIS IS MY INFORMATIVE TITLE Submitted by Jane Q. Student EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Here’s where I put my awesome executive summary. This is like a mini-report where I include the characteristics of an Executive Summary. SECTION ONE My Student ID is 000314791, therefore I took a random sample of 191. SECTION TWO Here is my write up of the bar chart where I describe the different levels of the variable. [MORE SECTIONS WITH OUTPUT AND WRITE UPS] FUTURE RESEARCH Here is where I wrap up everything. Including where I make suggestions for where to take the analysis to the next level. 6

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FOR REFERENCE ONLY – SURVEY QUESTIONS ID – Identifier Variable for the database manager Working Day – If the day is not a weekend (Saturday or Sunday) or a holiday Holiday – Is the day a recognized holiday Total Demand – Overall bike rentals for a given day Casual Demand – Total casual bike rentals for a given day. No reservation prior to rental. Registered User Demand – Total registered users rentals for a given day. Made a reservation prior to rental. High Casual Demand – Indicates if the Casual Demand was 1000 or higher for a given day Weather – Indicates if there was rain or no rain for a given day AvgTemp – Average daily temperature in F for a given day EffectiveAvgTemp – Effective average daily temperature (“feels like”) in Fahrenheit for a given day AvgHumidity – The average percent humidity for a given day AvgWindspeed – The average windspeed 7

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