BIO100 Mission Memo for Community Ecology Act 2
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Greetings Fellow Explorer:
The situation in the sanctuary has become dire. Not only are the frogcats still sick, the populations of
other species might have shrunk or grown unexpectedly.
To make matters worse, we witnessed a remarkable kill by an unidentified predator. I completed a
genetic analysis of blood cells recovered from the scene of attack, confirming the prey as a grabbins.
But a grabbins is an apex predator, which should have no predators of its own. Unless we can
discover the cause of these events, the entire community may soon be at risk.
Do not despair my human colleagues. We have much data to help us unravel this mystery. For
starters, we know that frogcats have been poisoned by boreblasters, which normally do not occupy
the same habitat as do frogcats. We also know that boreblasters are virtually absent in their normal
habitat. Finally, we collected information needed to evaluate the potential for bottom-up or top-down
effects on boreblasters. I am relying on your knowledge and skills to analyze these data and
discover the disturbance that caused the boreblasters to disperse.
Use the following questions to guide your work:
●
Could a change in the abundance of umbrella trees have caused the dispersal of
bore-blasters as a bottom-up effect?
●
Could a change in the abundance of spotted gliders have caused the dispersal of
bore-blasters as a top-down effect?
●
Could a change in the diet of a predator explain all of the events observed in the Allurian
forest? And if so, which predator do you think has started eating grabbins?
The appendices to this mission memo will guide you in answering these questions.
Once you have completed your analyses, report your conclusions to me before returning to the
sanctuary. You can access the reporting form in Canvas.
Do not underestimate the urgency of your work. For the greatest chance of success, upload your
report by the due date in your Canvas calendar, 11:59pm, in Tempe, Arizona, United States, Earth.
Universally in your debt,
The AI
1
Appendix 1
Could a change in the density of umbrella trees have caused the
dispersal of boreblasters as a bottom-up effect?
We reasoned that a recent change in food supply might have triggered the dispersal of boreblasters.
These creatures feed primarily on the woody tissue of umbrella trees; therefore, we need to know
whether the density of umbrella trees has either increased or decreased, causing a bottom-up effect
on boreblasters (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Left)
A food chain for the Allurian Forest depicting the flow of energy and matter.
Center)
A decrease in the density of umbrella trees should directly cause a decrease in the
density of boreblasters and indirectly cause a decrease in the density of spotted gliders.
Right)
An
increase in the density of umbrella trees should directly cause an increase in the density of
boreblasters and indirectly cause an increase in the density of spotted gliders. Both scenarios are
referred to as a bottom-up effect.
Using LiDAR, you constructed a map of the forest and estimated the density of umbrella trees to be
27,000 m
2
of tree tissue per km
2
of land. Now, you must see whether the current density is unusual
relative to historical values. Remember, no boreblasters in the sanctuary had never developed into
the purple, long-winged form until now; therefore, the density of umbrella trees must be extremely
unusual to support our hypothesis.
2
I have provided you with the densities of umbrella trees estimated during previous growing seasons
in the sanctuary, all of which occurred before the boreblasters dispersed.
Step 1:
Make predictions.
1.
A
ssume that
a bottom-up effect
caused the dispersal of boreblasters; specifically, a change
in the abundance of umbrella trees caused a corresponding change in the abundance of
boreblasters. What would you expect to observe when comparing the current density of
umbrella trees to the mean historical density?
a.
We would expect to observe that the current density of umbrella trees is higher than
the mean historical density.
b.
We would expect to observe that the current density of umbrella trees is lower than
the mean historical density.
c.
We would expect to see that there is no difference in current density of umbrella
trees than the mean historical density.
d.
All of the above observations would indicate a bottom-up effect
2.
There are two possible claims as to whether a bottom-up effect caused the dispersal of
boreblasters, 1) yes, a bottom-up effect caused the dispersal of boreblasters, or 1) no, a
bottom-up effect DID NOT cause the dispersal of boreblasters. Two of the bar plots below
illustrate what you would expect to observe if a bottom-up effect caused the dispersal of
boreblasters. The third illustrates what you would expect to observe if a bottom-up effect did
NOT cause the dispersal of boreblasters. Which one would you expect to see if there is no
bottom-up effect?
a.
3
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b.
c.
3.
If a change in the density of umbrella trees caused the boreblasters to disperse, would you
expect the current umbrella tree density to be greater than, less than, or equal to the mean
historical density? Pick one of the answers below:
a.
equal to or less than
b.
equal to or greater than
c.
greater than
d.
less than
e.
greater than or less than
4
Step 2:
Determine whether observed density differs
greatly from the expected density.
Directions:
Our processors have produced the following frequency distribution for the historical
density of umbrella trees showing a steady increase with the highest peak at a density between
26624 and 27625 m2/km2 followed by a small decrease in density. The mean historical density is
26994 m
2
/km
2
. Use this to answer questions below.
4.
You must determine whether the current tree density is extremely low or high, relative to the
historical tree density. Either conclusion would support the hypothesis of a bottom-up effect
of umbrella trees on boreblasters. The LiDAR map you created during your recent expedition
revealed the current density of umbrella trees to be 27000
m
2
/km
2
.
When you compare this to
the mean of the historical tree density, you can safely state that:
a.
the current density is much less than the mean
b.
the current density is much greater than the mean
c.
the current density is not much different than the mean
5.
You therefore conclude that there is no evidence to suggest that a bottom-up effect triggered
the boreblaster surge.
a.
True
b.
False
Continue to the next section.
5
Appendix 2
Could a change in the density of spotted gliders have caused the
dispersal of boreblasters as a top-down effect?
We reasoned that a change in predation risk might have triggered the dispersal of boreblasters.
Spotted gliders hunt along the trunks of umbrella trees, eating larval boreblasters. Therefore, we
need to know whether the density of spotted gliders has either increased or decreased, causing a
top-down effect on boreblasters (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Left)
A food chain for the Allurian Forest depicting the flow of energy and matter.
Center)
A
decrease in the density of spotted gliders should directly cause an increase in the density of
boreblasters and indirectly cause a decrease in the density of umbrella trees.
Right)
An increase in the
density of spotted gliders should directly cause a decrease in the density of boreblasters and indirectly
cause an increase in the density of umbrella trees. Both scenarios are referred to as a top-down effect.
Using the method of mark and recapture, you can estimate the current density of spotted gliders and
compare this density to the density expected from past censuses.
I have provided you with the densities of spotted gliders estimated during previous growing seasons
in the sanctuary.
6
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6.
Assume that a top-down effect caused the dispersal of boreblasters; specifically, a change in
the abundance of spotted gliders caused a corresponding change in the abundance of
boreblasters. What would you expect to observe when comparing the current density of
spotted gliders to the mean historical density?
a.
The current density of spotted gliders is equal to the mean historical density
b.
The current density of spotted gliders is higher than the mean historical density
c.
The current density of spotted gliders is lower than the mean historical density
d.
Both b and c are observations that would suggest a top-down effect
7.
Assuming that a top-down effect
did not
cause the dispersal of boreblasters, you would
expect to observe that the current density of spotted gliders is not much different or equal to
the mean historical density.
a.
True
b.
False
8.
There are two possible claims as to whether a top-down effect caused the dispersal of
boreblasters: 1) yes, a top-down effect caused the dispersal of boreblasters, or 1) no, a
top-down effect DID NOT cause the dispersal of boreblasters. Two of the bar plots below
illustrate what you would expect to observe with respect to spotted glider abundances if a
top-down effect caused the dispersal of boreblasters. The other illustrates what you would
expect to observe with respect to spotted glider abundances if a top-down effect did NOT
cause the dispersal of boreblasters. Which one is which?
7
a.
Figure A1 shows a top-down effect, Figure B shows no effect, Figure C shows a
bottom-up effect
b.
Figure A shows no effect, Figure B shows a top-down effect, Figure C shows no
effect
c.
Figure A shows a top-down effect, Figure B shows no effect, Figure C shows a
top-down effect
d.
Figure A shows a bottom-up effect, Figure B shows no effect, Figure C shows a
top-down effect
Step 3:
Estimate the current density of spotted gliders.
Throughout the galaxy, the method of mark and recapture has been used to estimate the size of a
population. This method relies on a simple assumption: if we mark some proportion of creatures in a
population today (time 1), we should recapture that same proportion of marked creatures in a future
census (time 2).
This assumption leads to the following relationship:
8
We can re-arrange this equation as follows:
Fortunately, research drones routinely “mark” spotted gliders in the sanctuary with a GPS tag. Thus,
for this analysis, a GPS-tagged glider is equivalent to a marked glider.
My monitoring system shows a mean density of 270 GPS-tagged gliders per km2 (or 270 km-2).
Also, you and fellow explorers counted the number of tagged gliders and untagged gliders in a
sample of the population. Collectively, you observed 59 untagged gliders and 42 tagged gliders.
Therefore, you should be able to calculate the population size from the following information:
1)
The number of tagged gliders in the population (# Marked at time 1)
2)
The number of tagged gliders in your sample of the population (# Marked at time 2)
3)
The sum of tagged gliders and untagged gliders in your sample of the population (Total
captured at time 2)
9.
Use the information and the formula above to calculate the population size for an area of 1
km
2
. This population size for a given area represents the current density of spotted gliders.
With this method you estimate that the current density of spotted gliders is
a.
192.2 gliders per km
2
b.
212.1 gliders per km
2
c.
379.3 gliders per km
2
d.
649.3 gliders per km
2
10. If a change in the density of spotted gliders caused the boreblasters to disperse, would you
expect the current density of spotted gliders to be greater than, less than, or equal to the
mean historical density?
a.
equal to
b.
greater than
c.
less than
d.
greater than OR less than
9
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We need to answer the question, “What density of spotted gliders should one expect to observe in
the Allurian forest?” I have provided you with the frequency distribution of historical glider densities
ranging from 268.9 to 541.9. The nearly symmetrical distribution shows a steady increase in
frequency with a peak between 385.9 and 424.9 individuals/km2 followed by a decrease in
frequency. The mean value is 399.2 individuals/km2.
If all conditions are unchanged, it would be reasonable to expect to observe a similar density.
However, we know that something has changed in the Allurian forest...
11. Based on the data that you analyzed for umbrella trees and spotted gliders, select the claim
that is best supported by the evidence. Boreblasters likely dispersed because of a...
a.
top-down effect caused by an increase in spotted gliders
b.
top-down effect caused by a decrease in spotted gliders
c.
bottom-up effect caused by an increase in umbrella trees
d.
bottom-up effect caused by an increase in umbrella trees
Continue to the next section.
10
Appendix 3
Could a change in the diet of a predator explain all of the events
observed in the Allurian forest? If so, which predator do you think has
started eating grabbins?
If we are going to discover the source of disruption in the Allurian Forest, we need to develop a
model that accounts for all of your observations.
Let’s begin by summarizing the conclusions you have drawn so far. Discuss with your group
members and write down the conclusions:
●
Were the frogcats infected or poisoned?
Conclusion
:
●
Did the boreblasters disperse because their density increased or decreased?
Conclusion
:
●
Did the density of umbrella trees increase or decrease?
Conclusion
:
●
Did the density of spotted gliders increase or decrease?
Conclusion
:
Each of these conclusions becomes an observation that must be explained by our model. But what
should our model look like?
Since we observed changes in the densities of several species, we need to consider a model that
accounts for this process. Recall that density is defined as the abundance in a given area (e.g., the
number of organisms per km
2
). Therefore, density changes as a population grows or shrinks. This
change in abundance, called population growth, depends on the birth rate and the death rate of
organisms in the population. A population grows when the birth rate exceeds the death rate (and
shrinks when the death rate exceeds the birth rate).
The birth rate and death rate of a species depend on interactions with other species. Predators eat
prey, contributing to the death rate of prey populations. Prey nourish predators, contributing to the
birth rate of the predator population. In this way, the interactions between predators and prey affect
the population growth (and hence the density) of the predatory species and the prey species.
Therefore, we need a model that captures these predator-prey interactions. This type of model has
many names throughout the universe, but your biologists on Earth call it a food web.
We’re going to need a food web for the Allurian Forest to solve this mystery of the sick frogcats, and
everything else we have observed.
11
Step 1:
Construct a food web for Allurian Forest.
As shown in Figure 3, a food web illustrates the flow of energy and matter among species in a
community. Use the
Field Guide to Alluria
to study the diet of each species. Then use this
information to construct a food web.
As your intergalactic mentor, let me suggest a tip to make the job easier. Start by making a
matrix that lists the prey of each species (see below). Once your matrix is complete, create
vertical food chains that extend from a species of autotroph to a top species of predator. Finally,
connect these food chains horizontally by species that consume more than one species of prey.
This systematic approach should help you model all of the interactions among species in the
food web.
Figure 3.
In this food web, arrows illustrate the flow of energy and matter from one species to
another. Therefore, energy and matter flow directly from species A to species B and species C,
and indirectly from species A to species D and species E. Species A is an autotroph that acquires
its energy from sunlight.
Continue to the next section.
12
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Directions:
Construct a matrix showing the connections between predators and prey in the Allurian
Forest community. In the matrix shown below, potential predators are listed in rows and potential
prey are listed in columns. For each potential predator, place an “X” in the columns that reflect
known species of prey (based on the Field Guide). Leave a cell blank if no evidence of predation
exists in the Field Guide to Alluria.
Potential prey
boreblaster
daggerjaw
flamster
frogcat
grabbins
legs
lyrac
ridgehead
sonar
spotted
gliders
torch
umbrella
tree
Potential
predators
boreblaster
x
daggerjaw
x
x
x
flamster
x
frogcat
x
grabbins
x
legs
x
lyrac
ridgehead
x
sonar
x
x
spotted
gliders
x
x
torch
umbrella
tree
12. Construct a food web illustrating the flow of energy between each of the species in the matrix
that you constructed above (you may use drawing software such as Powerpoint or a sketch
on paper). Use boxes to represent each species in the community. Use arrows to indicate
the direction that energy flows, from species of prey to species of predators. Save this and
submit in Canvas.
1)
Frogcat
2) Boreblaster
3) Grabins
13
4)Daggerjaw
Step 2:
Identify the most likely predator of grabbins
.
Even with my enormous computational power, one observation still perplexes me. How did a
grabbins---a predator at the top of the food chain in the Allurian Forest---become prey? The most
likely hypothesis is that one of the predators in the food web has shifted or even expanded its diet to
include grabbins. But which species is the predator?
Once you have a food web for the Allurian Forest, you must identify the most likely predator of the
grabbins. At first glance, one might argue that any predator could eat grabbins. But use these criteria
to narrow your list:
●
The species must be a carnivore that has evolved to capture and digest prey.
●
The species must have the size and power needed to subdue a grabbins.
Once you have a list of species that meet these criteria, use the following strategy to evaluate each
species on the list. First, modify the food web by drawing an arrow pointing from grabbins to the
hypothetical predator of grabbins. Then, trace the indirect effects of adding this predator-prey
interaction to the food web.
The indirect effects should account for all of the observations we have made, including the sick
frogcats, the dispersing boreblasters, and the change in densities of umbrella trees, boreblasters,
and spotted gliders. If you can identify a predator that could have caused all of these disruptions to
the food web, we will have a hypothesis worth testing.
Directions:
Use the food web that you constructed above and the Field Guide of Alluria to answer
the following questions.
13. What is the most likely predator of grabbins? Select all that apply:
a.
Sonar
b.
Ridgehead
c.
Daggerjaw
d.
None of them are likely predators of grabbins
14. Now, modify the food web that you previously constructed (you may use drawing software
such as Powerpoint or a sketch on paper). Draw an arrow pointing from the grabbins to one
of the species that you believe has started preying on grabbins. This arrow should differ in
color from the other arrows.
Once you have done that, indicate the direct and indirect effects of this new predator-prey
relationship by adding a “+” or “-” symbol next to the box representing each species. Place a
14
“+” next to a species whose abundance should increase because of the new predator of
grabbins. Place a “-” next to a species whose abundance should decrease because of the
new predator of grabbins. If you think a species’ abundance will remain the same, place a “0”
next to that box. It’s recommended that you make the “+”, “-”, and “0” symbols different colors
so they stand out in the food web. Upload an image of this new, annotated food web as a
JPG or PDF file.
●
Sonar (+), Grabbins (-), flamster (+), Umbrella trees (-)
15. What evidence would you need to collect to support your hypothesis that the creature you
indicated is preying on grabbins? Rank the following types of evidence in how strongly they
would support the hypothesis:
a.
Stomach content or fecal contents of the predator contain grabbins tissue/remains
b.
Observing the creature preying on the grabbins
c.
Observing the creature killing the grabbins
d.
Carcasses of grabbins have bite marks or claw marks that match the predator
e.
Observing the creature stalking and chasing the grabbins
5,4,3,2,1
Prepare for one final excursion to the Allurian forest to see if you can find any evidence to support
your fantastic work. The Intergalactic Wildlife Sanctuary is forever grateful for your contribution to our
intergalactic society.
15
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ISBN:9780395977224
Author:Richard G. Brown, Mary P. Dolciani, Robert H. Sorgenfrey, William L. Cole
Publisher:McDougal Littell
Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition...
Algebra
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Big Ideas Math A Bridge To Success Algebra 1: Stu...
Algebra
ISBN:9781680331141
Author:HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT
Publisher:Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Elementary Geometry for College Students
Geometry
ISBN:9781285195698
Author:Daniel C. Alexander, Geralyn M. Koeberlein
Publisher:Cengage Learning