POLI110 Midterm fall 2020
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THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
Midterm Examination
Fall 2020
POLI 110
INVESTIGATING POLITICS
Instructor: Professor Matthew Wright
Time: 80 Minutes
You have 80 minutes to complete this exam.
The point value for each question is indicated, and they total to 80. You therefore have 1
minute per point. Please budget your time accordingly. WHEN ANSWERING QUESTIONS, DO NOT TYPE DIRECTLY INTO THIS
DOCUMENT. START A NEW DOCUMENT, AND EXPLICITLY LABEL ALL OF
YOUR ANSWERS WITH SECTION AND QUESTION NUMBERS.
WHEN MAKING YOUR ANSWER DOC, TURN OFF AUTOFORMATTING SINCE
THIS WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS WHEN YOU TRY TO COPY OVER YOUR
ANSWERS TO CANVAS. BEST STRATEGY TO AVOID THIS PROBLEM WOULD BE
TO USE TEXT EDITOR INSTEAD OF MS WORD OR SIMILAR. Answer questions as precisely as possible.
When your exam is completely, submit it through Canvas just as you did with the
homework assignments.
The exam is due at 2:00pm. Late exams will be penalized according to the following rule:
- 0-15 minutes, deduct 2/20
- 15-30 minutes, deduct 4/20
- 30-45 minutes, deduct 6/20
- 45-60 minutes, deduct 8/20
Barring something that effects the whole class, you are responsible for your own
technology. This means that I will not provide technical support during the exam, and no
accommodations will be made for late submissions due to technological problems.
1
SECTION A. Types of claims
First, choose ONE of the following prescriptive questions.
Should the U.S. remove protections currently established in the Affordable Care Act
that prevent insurance companies from raising rates or denying coverage to those with pre-existing medical conditions?
Should the U.B.C. campus commit to all (or mostly) online instruction next semester
(ie Winter Term 2)?
Should the Canadian government provide financial support for the oil industry, to protect it from economic contraction and associated drops in oil prices?
Copy and paste the prescriptive question you have chosen into your answer doc. Now, answer the following items. Be sure to provide an answer for every part of the items below. You do not have to have any factual knowledge about the specific topic in order to answer these items well
.
1. Write a Descriptive Question.
Your Descriptive Question should be one that would help answer the Prescriptive Question you have chosen
. [
3 points
]
2. (a) Write a Causal Question
. Your Causal Question should be one that would help answer the
Prescriptive Question you have chosen
. [
3 points
]
(b) Write a Causal Claim
that could be an answer to your Causal Question from question 2a. To make it simple, choose a claim that has a single cause and a single effect. Note that no knowledge of the topic of the claim is assumed here, and you will not be marked on the basis of how true or accurate the claim is. [
3 points
]
3. (a) Explain in no more than 3 sentences how answering the Causal Question you have identified would help you to address the Prescriptive Question. [
3 points
]
(b) Why is causal knowledge not sufficient to answer the prescriptive question? Explain in no more than 3 sentences. [
3 points
]
-------- 4. (a) Please write a specific claim based on the following general claim: Global pandemics reduce immigration.
[
3 points
]
(b) Please write a general claim based on the following specific claim: Donald Trump’s boorish behaviour during the first Presidential debate disgusted most a group of undecided participants in a focus group held immediately afterwards.
[
3 points
]
2
Section B. Types of causal claims.
1. In August 2020, wildfires swept across the Pacific Northwest. One of these fires, the El Dorado Fire, started east of Los Angeles in early September and has burned over 20,000 acres, cost over $8 million to fight, and has resulted in the death of one firefighter. Consider the two statements below: (i) Over the years, California and other states have adopted an aggressive fire suppression policy, fighting fires as soon as they break out and limiting their extent. This has allowed a long-term accumulation of flammable material to build up on forest floors.
(ii)
On September 5
th
, 2020, a malfunctioning smoke-generating pyrotechnic device at a gender reveal party ignited the fire [it was blue smoke, so a boy]. (a) In a causal explanation of the profusion of wildfires in the Pacific Northwest that included both
of these statements, Statement (i) would be identifying a(n): ______________________________________________________ [
3 points
].
(b) Why would scientists generally not consider Statement (ii) above to be a satisfying causal explanation of why the outcome occurred? (3 sentences max.) [
3 points
]
------
2. Read and choose ONE of the following causal claims for answering Question 2.
(i)
Regular press conferences on Covid-19 held by Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix have reduced British Columbians’ anxieties about the pandemic.
(ii)
Donald Trump’s reckless failure to maintain CDC-recommended protocols on masks and
social distancing caused him to get Covid-19.
For ONE of the causal claims above, state the Counterfactual Claim
that is implied by this Causal Claim. [
3 points
] -------
3. Consider the following causal claim: In order to gain admission to a prestigious law school, it is necessary to have: i) a cumulative grade point average of 3.70 or better; ii) an LSAT score in the 90
th
percentile or higher, and; iii) a compelling personal statement
.
(a) What kind of a causal claim is this? [
3 points
]
3
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(b) A student applies with a compelling personal statement and a cumulative GPA of 3.80, but a low LSAT score (54
th
percentile). Does this student gain admission to the law school? Explain your answer in one sentence. [
3 points
]
(c) A student applies with a compelling personal statement, a cumulative GPA of 3.80, and an LSAT score in the 94
th
percentile. Does this student gain admission to the law school? Explain your answer in one sentence. [
3 points
] (d) Please reframe the initial, deterministic causal claim as a probabilistic causal claim. [
3 points
]. ----------
3. Suppose I tell you: “Going ahead with in-person instruction in elementary schools will cause B.C. premier John Horgan to lose the upcoming provincial election” You then ask me why, and I
answer with this:
Going ahead with in-person instruction in elementary schools
Community spread of Covid-19
increases
People view profusion of Covid-19 cases as a sign of poor public health management
B.C. Premier John Horgan losing provincial election.
a. Write down one
assumption that one
step in this causal logic requires. [
3 points
]
b. Now indicate (in words, below) which “causal arrow” this assumption is relevant to. [
2 points
]
c. Finally, explain why
this assumption is important to that step in the causal logic. Be as specific
as possible in your answer. (3 sentences max.) [
4 points
]
Section C. Bases of Claims
1. (a) What is the basis of the following claim: Of course negative political ads work, if they didn’t people wouldn’t use them.
(2 sentences max.) [
2 points
]
(b) Why are such claims problematic as a basis for knowledge? Give at least two reasons. (2 sentences max). [
4 points
]
-----------
2. Why is the careful acknowledgment of uncertainty an important feature of science? Illustrate with at least one example discussed in class, in the readings, or from your own experience (3 sentences max.) [
3 points
]
-----------
4
3. Consider the following claim: As one becomes more wealthy, one becomes more likely to vote for a candidate and/or political party that supports cutting taxes and decreased spending on social services such as health care, welfare, etc. (a) How might a researcher have arrived at this claim deductively
? [
3 points
]
(b) How might a researcher have arrived at this claim inductively
? [
3 points
]
----------
4. (a) Please indicate whether the following statement is true
or false
and explain
your answer in two sentences or fewer: All predictive theories are causal theories
. [
3 points
]
(b) Please indicate whether the following statement is true
or false
and explain
your answer in two sentences or fewer: All causal theories make predications
. [
3 points
]
Section D. Measurement
1. Suppose that, as a researcher, I am interested in measuring racial animus, or how hostile Canadians are to those of races/ethnicities different from their own. To find out, I field a nationally-representative survey that asks them the following three questions (rows) and allows them to selecting one answer for each (columns).
How uncomfortable would you having an immigrant to Canada…
Very
Somewhat
A little
Not at all
1. … as your physician?
2. … living in you neighborhood?
3. … marry into your close family?
a. How effectively do you think that this set of questions, taken together, maps onto the broader concept of hostility to “those of races/ethnicities different from” one’s own? Be sure to consider at least one strength and at least one weakness of the measures (4 sentences max). [
4 points
]
b. For what kinds of people would you expect this measure to bias estimates of racial/ethnic animus downwards
(ie make it look like they are less “racist” – as defined in the prompt above - than they actually are)? List two subgroups, and be sure to explain your reasoning in each case (4
sentences max). [
4 points
].
5