Essay 1- Nour Almoala

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Time's Toll: Unraveling the Threat of Short-Termism on Civilization's Tapestry Submitted by: Nour Al-Moala 041062366 Bachelor of Commerce (Supply Chain Management), Algonquin College PHI1000: Logic and Critical Thinking Submitted to: Professor Joe William, Ph.D. February 21, 2024

The Australian Oxford academic philosopher Toby Ord introduces a thought-provoking perspective, contending that the world expends more financial resources annually on the indulgence of ice cream than on mitigating future risks. This assertion, although somewhat comical, prompts us to scrutinize society's priorities and question if short- termism is a real threat to our civilization. The intricate tapestry of decision-making presents the dichotomy between short-term thinking and its counterpart, long-term planning, which holds profound implications for the trajectory of our civilization. The phenomenon known as "short-termism” is a method of thinking that emphasizes immediate or near-future outcomes without adequately accounting for future implications. This is contrasted with long-term considerations, which entail a broad perspective and consideration of the future. My position in this essay is that short-termism poses a significant threat to civilization, while long-termism represents an elevated approach to thinking. To defend this position, my argument is as follows: (P1) The moral theory of rule-utilitarianism deems short-termism immoral. (P2) The nature of short-termism causes a lack of investment opportunities. (P3) Shortermism is an unsustainable way of living. (P4) A society of short-term thinkers leads to disunification. (C) Shortermism is a real threat to civilization and ought to be replaced with decision- making supported by a consideration of the long term. Let's delve into (P1). According to rule-utilitarianism, it is immoral and problematic to prioritize immediate gains without adequate consideration of the long-term impact. Utilitarianism holds that ethical courses of action are those that consider the long-term and maximize overall happiness and the well-being of society as a whole. Short- termism focuses solely on gains in the present moment for a specific entity that may lead to negative consequences in the long run. Take climate change for instance. The dependency on fossil fuels for energy due to their being readily available is a short-term decision made by society for immediate gains while ignoring their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions that is detrimental to the environment. On this line of reasoning, the first premise is reasonable and supports the conclusion. Considering (P2) we understand how the concept of short-termism is inconsistent with investment opportunities due to the nature of investments being associated with long payoff periods instead of immediate gains. Due to this, short-term decisions that allow entities to get by on a day-to-day basis reduce valuable advancement projects within civilization. This perspective leads to the question: how much better could the future be if we make efforts towards advancement in technology, medicine, energy consumption, etc., today than if we take on short-term tasks to fulfil only our present-day problems? A crucial part of the advancement of civilization is the occurrence of breakthroughs. For example, this is evident in government investments that generate substantial returns for future generations, such as the breakthrough in transportation infrastructure with the creation of the Trans-Canada highway system. This line of reasoning shows how short-termism can stunt growth in society while actions of long- term investment act contrarily, once again supporting the conclusion.

Moving on to (P3) society has strong reasons to consider the welfare of the future as it promotes a sustainable way of living. Let's look at the corporate world, in which we are introduced to the term corporate syndrome. This term refers to business activities that fulfil monthly or, at best, quarterly targets while overlooking business sustainability. Many businesses are led to failure when using this model. Sustainability is the ability to maintain a process over time while considering economic, environmental, and social health in efforts to safeguard the well-being of society in the long run. With this in mind, short-termism is concerned with immediate gains without considering the impacts on what the gain means for the economy, environment and social health. Thus, short-termism can be deemed to be an unsustainable way of execution. In addition, another concept that plays a part in this premise is the game theory. There are two kinds of games: finite and infinite. Finite games have set rules, a time limit and clear win conditions, while an infinite game does not. The real world in this context can be considered an infinite game, or potentially one that has an unforeseeable end. Short-termism would align with a finite game that requires individuals to carry out the necessary actions to get instant benefits and lead in the game without the need for other considerations. In an infinite game, to align with its enduring nature, individuals must make sustainable decisions and consider the long run to continue to survive. This line of reasoning emphasizes the need for sustainable decision-making for civilization to continue surviving, thus supporting the conclusion. Next, we can discuss (P4). Should a society function based on short-termism, this will lead to a pervasive pursuit of immediate gains among individuals, creating an intense culture of competition and self-centeredness. This hinders the desire for an enduring society that can withstand challenges, maintain stability, and promote the well- being of all its members collectively over the long term. To compete in a society of short-termists, individuals would become impatient, expedient and selfish due to the desire for a certain outcome immediately without considering other relevant factors. Individuals would be reactive rather than proactive, dealing with whatever issues they face now rather than putting effort into mitigating long-term problems. Recalling the moral theory of utilitarianism, we know that it promotes the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people; however, a society of short-termists does not regard broader moral duties, which may undermine societal cohesion. Short-termism contravenes the principle of social cooperation. Thus, without moral soundness, individuals in society will be unable to attain social harmony and overall impair civilization's well-being. On this line of reasoning, the fourth premise is reasonable and supports the conclusion. Lastly, we must consider (C), the conclusion that even though short-termism provides instant benefits, it is certainly not the ideal option and is a real threat to civilization. Long-term mindsets ought to be its replacement to support societal decision- making. Thus, the conclusion is reasonable. In summary, short-termism emerges as a real threat to civilization, and its replacement with decision-making supported by a consideration of the long term is advocated for the well-being and sustainability of our collective future. While short-term gains may offer instant benefits, the broader implications regarding morality, advancement,

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sustainability and societal cohesion underscore the need for a shift toward long-term thinking in our decision-making processes. Reference Page  Akaev, A., & Rudskoi, A. (2017). Economic potential of breakthrough technologies and its social consequences. In Studies on entrepreneurship, structural change and industrial dynamics (pp. 13–41). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_2  Blair, S. (2011, July 4). Lessons of the Financial Crisis: The Dangers of Short-Termism . The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2011/07/04/lessons-of-the-financial-crisis-the-dangers- of-short-termism/  Fenwick, C. (2024, January 26). Longtermism: a call to protect future generations - 80,000 Hours . 80,000 Hours. https://80000hours.org/articles/future-generations/  Gesang, B. (2017). Climate change- Do I make a difference? Environmental Ethics , 39 , 3–19. https://www.phil.uni-mannheim.de/media/Lehrstuehle/phil/philosophisches_seminar/ Lehrstuhl_Philosophie_II/Dokumente/Gesang/ Gesang_2017._Climate_Change_Do_I_make_a_Difference_manuscript.pdf  Government of Canada. (2023, December 20). Infrastructure Canada - Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program . https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/plan/icp-pic-INFC- eng.html  Koller, T., Manyika, J., & Ramaswamy, S. (2017, August 4). The case against corporate short termism . McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the- news/the-case-against-corporate-short-termism

 Krznaric, R. (2020). The Good Ancestor: How to think long term in a Short-Term world . WH Allen. https://books.google.ca/books? hl=en&lr=&id=IT2tDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT11&dq=humanity %E2%80%99s+collective+failure+to+tackle+long- term+risks&ots=Bo5eoMu4e4&sig=csuDpB3PuuLT3Xlx0RxXUKkY9_c#v=onepage&q &f=false  Nejati, M., Bin, A. S., Bin Amran, A., & Shahbudin, M. (2010). Sustainable development: a competitive advantage or a threat? Business Strategy Series , 11 (2), 84– 89. https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631011026407  Pecorino, P. (n.d.). Introduction to Philosophy: Chapter 10 : Political Philosophy Individual versus Group Interest . https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialSciences/ppecorino/INTRO_TEXT/Chapter %2010%20Political%20Philosophy/Group_vs_Individual_Interest.htm  Street, F. (2020, November 16). Finite and Infinite Games: two ways to play the game of life . Farnam Street. https://fs.blog/finite-and-infinite-games/  Van Druten, D. (2023, January 16). Why is Humanity so dependent on Fossil Fuels? Duurzame Student. https://www.duurzamestudent.nl/2023/01/16/why-is-humanity-so- dependent-on-fossil-fuels/  Zhang, J. (2014). Achieving a sustainable global civilization. World Futures Review , 6 (4), 468–476. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756715570485

Three-step research process Step 1: select an approved topic then begin your academic research The first step in the research process involves finding relevant academic material to support your position on the topic. For each document you find, write a concise sentence on an idea that is useful to you. Here is an example: Bayer, Ronald (1981). Homosexuality and American Psychiatry: The Politics of Diagnosis. (pp. 101-154). New Jersey: Princeton. This article helps to explain how homosexuality was wrongly listed as a mental disorder. - Akaev, A., & Rudskoi, A. (2017). Economic potential of breakthrough technologies and its social consequences. In Studies on entrepreneurship, structural change and industrial dynamics (pp. 13–41). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_2 This book provided me information regarding break throughs and its impact on society. (the importance of breakthrough technologies) - Blair, S. (2011, July 4). Lessons of the Financial Crisis: The Dangers of Short-Termism . The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2011/07/04/lessons-of-the-financial-crisis-the-dangers- of-short-termism/ This post based on chairman Sheila Blair’s remarks gave me a lot of information regarding investment, the challenges due to short termism, and why investments are long term activities. It also emphasizes the need for investments. - Fenwick, C. (2024, January 26). Longtermism: a call to protect future generations - 80,000 Hours . 80,000 Hours. https://80000hours.org/articles/future-generations/

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This article provided many information on why long termismn is a good alternative and why we can rely on it. It also provided an interesting fact (ice cream) that I was able to directly use in my essay. - Gesang, B. (2017). Climate change- Do I make a difference? Environmental Ethics , 39 , 3–19. https://www.phil.uni-mannheim.de/media/Lehrstuehle/phil/philosophisches_seminar/ Lehrstuhl_Philosophie_II/Dokumente/Gesang/ Gesang_2017._Climate_Change_Do_I_make_a_Difference_manuscript.pdf This journal article provided me with evidence on climate change and ethics that are ignored. It also directly supports the idea of utilitarianism and related it to climate change - Government of Canada. (2023, December 20). Infrastructure Canada - Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program . https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/plan/icp-pic-INFC- eng.html This page provided me an example I was able to incorporate in my reasoning that investment activities are crucial. - Koller, T., Manyika, J., & Ramaswamy, S. (2017, August 4). The case against corporate short termism . McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the- news/the-case-against-corporate-short-termism This article provides information regarding corporate (business) short termism and also talks about the importance of sustainability when it comes to the corporate world. - Krznaric, R. (2020). The Good Ancestor: How to think long term in a Short-Term world . WH Allen. https://books.google.ca/books? hl=en&lr=&id=IT2tDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT11&dq=humanity

%E2%80%99s+collective+failure+to+tackle+long- term+risks&ots=Bo5eoMu4e4&sig=csuDpB3PuuLT3Xlx0RxXUKkY9_c#v=onepage&q &f=false Thus book establishes a good contrast between short termism and long term thinking and it also touches on information regarding collective action. - Nejati, M., Bin, A. S., Bin Amran, A., & Shahbudin, M. (2010). Sustainable development: a competitive advantage or a threat? Business Strategy Series , 11 (2), 84– 89. https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631011026407 This abstract of an article gave me detailed infroamtionregarding sustainable development and its importance especially in a business perspective. - Pecorino, P. (n.d.). Introduction to Philosophy: Chapter 10 : Political Philosophy Individual versus Group Interest . https://www.qcc.cuny.edu/socialSciences/ppecorino/INTRO_TEXT/Chapter %2010%20Political%20Philosophy/Group_vs_Individual_Interest.htm This online textbook chapter explained the differences between self- interest (thinking in short term) and collective interest/ thinking. It allowed me to conclude that collective interest is more important in the context of my essay. - Street, F. (2020, November 16). Finite and Infinite Games: two ways to play the game of life . Farnam Street. https://fs.blog/finite-and-infinite-games/ This blog post explained the game theory that backs up the importance of thinking sustainably and in the long run.

- Van Druten, D. (2023, January 16). Why is Humanity so dependent on Fossil Fuels? Duurzame Student. https://www.duurzamestudent.nl/2023/01/16/why-is-humanity-so- dependent-on-fossil-fuels/ This article informed me about fossil fuel dependency which played as a significant example. - Zhang, J. (2014). Achieving a sustainable global civilization. World Futures Review , 6 (4), 468–476. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756715570485 This abstract gives me information on what exactly sustainability is in civilization and the need for it/ long term development (investments). Step 2: develop your moral position on the topic My moral position is that it is immoral and problematic to prioritize immediate gains without adequate consideration of the long-term impact. My moral position rests on four key considerations … Moral theory or principles The moral theory im relying on is Utilitarianism, specifically rule- utilitarianism. Specific duty This theory suggests that individuals must prioritize actions that maximize overall happiness and well-being over the long term for society as a whole, rather than solely focusing on immediate gains for one’s self. Essentially people must act to provide the greatest good for the greatest number of people. People must consider broadness Relevant stakeholder tests for one, thinking about the long-term certainly passes the harm test. People may have a hard time adapting to this moral position but deep down they would know its acceptable, adhering to the public opinion test as well as the co-worker test. I personally try to think about all stakeholders with my decisions when reasonable so my position is also backed up by the self interest test. Some relevant facts on the topic We see my moral position play out when it comes to climate change and other negative environmental impacts that are mainly happening due to people only focusing on immediate gains Another relevant fact is that my moral position certainly does not prioritize the long term over the

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and the long-term present. It rather implies that we must consider the long term and this will go hand in hand with creating a better present. My moral position emphasizes the saying “greater good for greater number of people”. I stand that people should do what is best for as many people possible and for the better/ more important causes. which in turn influence and/or are influenced by … My beliefs on this topic I personally am also a religious person and believe that it is very important to avoid doing something that could benefit myself but harm others, especially when there’s a greater reward for society overall. My values on this topic I value many aspects related to this topic such as responsibility, sustainability, consideration as this all holds individuals accountable to do the right thing. My moral position only makes sense if we accept these assumptions … Some key assumptions One assumption is that the morality of an action is determined by its long- term consequences. If actions are solely based on their immediate gains without considering the broader and enduring impacts is morally problematic, if not it is morally sound. Additionally, my moral position assumes that individuals have a moral responsibility for all that is implicated with their actions thus people must not neglect their consideration of society as a whole.

Step 3: develop your formal argument Before you write the essay, you must develop a formal argument like the one shown in the example essay. You must have between four to six premises. List your premises below … (P1) The moral theory of rule- utilitarianism deems short-termism immoral. (P2) The nature of short-termism causes a lack of investment opportunities. (P3) Shortermism is an unsustainable way of living. (P4) A society of short-term thinkers leads to disunification. (C) Shortermism is a real threat to civilization and ought to be replaced with decision- making supported by a consideration of the long-term.

Essay 1- Nour Almoala

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