Poli 2325 ass. 3
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2325F
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Philosophy
Date
Dec 6, 2023
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docx
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3
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Exercise 9.1
A.
Explain why a single case study can disconfirm an argument that specifies the
following:
Disconfirm Necessary Conditions:
Single case studies can disconfirm arguments that specify
necessary conditions when an outcome occurs in the absence of the necessary conditions.
Moreover, if the outcome comes to be without the necessary condition, the argument that
something is a necessary condition can be disproved.
Disconfirm Sufficient Conditions:
Single case studies can disconfirm arguments that specify
sufficient conditions when the outcome does not occur in the presence of sufficient conditions.
Disconfirm NC and SC
: A necessary and sufficient condition argument can be disproved if the
outcome does not occur when the necessary and sufficient criteria are present. When
necessary and sufficient circumstances are provided, it can also be used to disprove arguments
in which the necessary and sufficient conditions are not present yet the outcome occurs
nonetheless.
B.
Explain why a single case study cannot confirm an argument that specifies the
following andexplain why:
a necessary condition:
A necessary condition defines a general condition that is required for the
production of an outcome, a state of affairs that must exist in order for another to occur. A
single case study cannot confirm an argument that specifies a necessary condition because
additional factors may also be required to achieve the desired outcome. Other factors may be
required for the result to be the desired outcome; consequently, the presence of necessary
conditions does not guarantee a result.
a sufficient condition:
Despite the absence of sufficient conditions, outcomes are still possible.
This indicates that a sufficient condition is not required to produce an outcome. Because the
outcome can occur without the sufficient condition, a single case study cannot confirm an
argument that specifies a sufficient condition.
Exercise 9.2
A.
Identify the potential sources of selection bias in each of the following research
studies analyzing:
1. The psychological effects of exposure to warfare for non-combatants based on survivors
accounts after the war
- Non-combatants are a specific category that may have been exposed to battle. However, by
selecting study participants using a non-random method, the researchers are neglecting many
possibly affected persons in favour of a smaller isolated group. Additionally, non-combatants'
memories may be influenced by their politics. Moreover, including war veterans would
encompass a greater consensus on the general population.
2. satisfaction with a company's products and services based on customer surveys.
- This depends on the technique used to distribute the survey. If convenience sampling is used,
such as handing out surveys, reviews may not be accurate in reflecting the opinions of
customers who have just purchased something for the first time. If the surveys are outsourced
using volunteer sampling, and the participant group has self-selected into this survey, they are
likely to produce an overestimated number of positive reviews because they have already
purchased a product, are re-purchasing, or are purchasing for the first time and are satisfied
enough to take the time to complete the survey. Those dissatisfied are unlikely to take the time
to read the entire review. As a result, an unbalanced number of satisfied to dissatisfied
individuals could be a cause of selection bias in this study. If the participants had been chosen at
random, the survey would have provided a more accurate picture of customer satisfaction.
3. the effectiveness of UN peacekeepers, which only intervene in states in which they are
invited by governments, in preventing a return to civil war.
- The political affiliations and location of participants are potential sources of selection bias in
this context. Individuals who support the government that invited the UN forces are inclined to
believe they had a bigger impact. Those who oppose the current government are more inclined
to conclude that the intervention was ineffective. The study's specifications are also imprecise,
making it difficult to predict who will take part. If the survey is distributed throughout the
country, people who live in areas largely free of civil issues will lack the necessary first-hand
knowledge to form an informed view of the efficiency of UN forces. This could lead to an
exaggerated review of the effectiveness of the peacekeepers, since people who are not directly
affected may not believe the peacekeepers are effective.
4. the effectiveness of a program designed to change gender norms regarding the role of
women in the workplace based on a survey of women who completed the program.
- If we assume that men, in addition to women, completed the program and survey, there is
selection bias because the results would be based on a smaller portion of the total population
that finished the program or survey. One cannot adequately report on the program's
effectiveness until the complete population of participants is considered. If the survey was
designed to be completed solely by women, the researchers may be losing out on vital
information from other members of the workplace. The same is true for the program; if males
are rejected from participating, we won’t know if the program is helpful in changing gender
norms in the workplace.
5. the motivation for terrorist attacks through interviews with terrorists apprehended after
they committed an attack.
- Terrorists who have been apprehended may have different reasons than terrorists who are still
free. They may be deceptive in their response out of fear of prosecution or to avoid providing
genuine knowledge. The study's findings might be improved if people who desire to be
terrorists and are later detected and jailed were questioned to determine if their reasons
coincided with those who have been captured performing terrorist activities. It would be
impossible to adequately conclude an answer of the motives underlying terrorist attacks
without people who had motivations for a terrorist attack but have not conducted them. Thus, a
potential source of selection bias is from the removal of extremists who aspire to perform
terrorist actions but have not yet done so, preventing researchers from getting the whole
picture of the motive for terrorist activities.
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