EXP6404

Decision Making Reasoning Process of drawing conclusions Deductive Reasoning Drawing conclusions based on certainty and premises Inductive Reasoning drawing conclusions that are probably based on premises Framing effects : The way a decision Is framed affects the Choices Deductive Reasoning 3 Decision Making : people make syllogism 1 premises + / conclusion TWO or more explicity just choose one Hindsight Bias : Making that choice premises -f at care an mora How did you arrive to that decision udgements of events that have already happened Conclusion -> All Birds eat food "known It all along effect" valid True ? Yes · conditional syllogism: "if then Availibility Heuristics Anchoring and Adjustment If p(antecedent) , then q(consequent ( mmm HUVISTIC mem meane - All birds are animals Flust , estimate the anchor , It something is a bird , then It is an animal things that are more easily then adjust your response up remembered are judged as or down according to later info being more probable than Minds propositional calculus that don't come to mind easily system for categorizing four kinds of reasoning used to analyze propositions Antich Heuristic compare the relative frequency of two items Dual process-theory - System 1 (intuition) system 2 (Reasoning) Representative Heuristics Fast Slow -judging the livelihood (or probability) conjunction rule : parallel serial of something based on now the probability similar it is to something else AUTOMATIC controlled Effortless E> ffortful sample size fallacy misunderstanding that Associative Rule-Governed smaller samples are more representative Slow-learning Flexible of the population * Move top-down Base rate fallacy failing to take into * Move Dottom Up account how Often the Hem occurs in the population overdll Wason's card problem (vowels) Factors that make Reasoning Difficul : ⑦ & t Da e t n ⑭ - yeggi g Belief Bias Effect making judgements confirmation Bias : Heur · stics : D based on prior bellets and general knowledge Instead of rules The tendency to seek rules that Usually of logic out evidence that Work to make decisions confirms pre-existing beliefs main ones : e g If you eat 3 bananas , you'll turn into Instead of truing to Representative Heuristics a supernevo disconfirm those beiefs -Audilability Heuristic I ate three Dananas Therefore , I am now a supernevo