MGCR 423 - Project Lightspeed
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McGill University *
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Course
423
Subject
Management
Date
Feb 20, 2024
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68
Uploaded by ChancellorEnergyKudu24
Desautels Faculty of Management
The Five Competitive Forces that Shape Strategy
By Michael Porter
Team #101
Anthony Ladal
Leo Tousignant
September 16
th
, 2021
NTD:
- Make a nicer design
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSX:LSPD)
Anthony Ladal, Benjamin Soucy, Idir Hamrioui, Jeff Behar, Jeremy Chalifoux, Leo Tousignant, Sayeed Yousuf Ahmed MGCR 423 –
Strategic Management Group Project (Team 101)
2
Agenda
Shedding light on Lightspeed
I.
Motivation
a.
Business Overview
b.
General Environment Analysis
c.
Problem Identification
II.
Analysis
a.
Competitive Advantage Identification
b.
Industry Analysis
c.
Competitive Dynamics
d.
SWOT Analysis
III.
Strategic Recommendations
a.
Recommendation Overview
b.
Recommendation #1 (Lightspeed Cash)
c.
Recommendation #2 (Lightspeed Shipping) and #3 (LightMarket Pace)
IV. Appendix
MOTIVATION
SECTION I
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4
Comprehensive Back-Office Suite
Inventory, Product, and Menu Management Reporting & Analytics
Loyalty Program
Suppliers Integrations
Payments & Financing
Lightspeed Payments
Lightspeed Capital
Omnichannel Customer Engagement
In-store Cloud POS
eCommerce
Mobile
Curbside Delivery & Pickup
Company Overview
Processing payments at the speed of light
Source: Capital IQ, Company Filings, RBC
Company Description
Key Strategic Positioning in the Productivity Frontier
▪
Lightspeed
(TSX:LSPD) is a point-of-
sale (“POS”) and e-commerce software provider
that was founded in 2005 and based in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Vision
“Build smart technology that makes life easier for business owners, and to help them deliver unforgettable customer experiences”
Mission
Offering end-to-end and cloud-based POS solutions to SMBs with complex needs
Business Model
Software as a Service (“SaaS”), where SMBs (“merchants”) pay a monthly licensing fee to use the LSPD platform and solutions
Business-Level Strategy
Integrated Strategy
Blends value (omni-channel and complex merchants offering) and cost-leadership (priced lower than Shopify, etc.)
Relative Cost Position
Nonprice Buyer Value Delivered
High
High
Low
Low
Business Segments
5
Key General Environment Trends
Trends in the general environment will act as tailwinds fuelling Lightspeed’s growth
Overall, these general environment trends position Lightspeed favorably to implement their growth strategy
Source: Barclays Equity Research, Harvard Business Review, IBIS World, McKinsey
Demographic
Technological
Global
E-Commerce Growth
Retail spending is gradually shifting towards online, which was further catalyzed by COVID-19
1
2
Increased Demand for Omni-Channel Consumers are shopping online and in stores, increasing demand for an omni-channel experience
Legacy information systems becoming obsolete This is resulting in SMB’s modernizing their POS systems and upgrading to cloud-based systems
1
2
Increased Demand for Cloud-Based POS
Cloud-based systems are more cost-efficient and offer other perks, with plenty of room for penetration
3
4
Need for End-to-End Solutions
SMB’s are looking for POS systems that can serve both back-office and front-office needs
Consumers are looking for tech enabled shopping
SMBs want meet the increasing consumer demand for various touchpoints across different platforms
Spike in E-Commerce Growth Due to COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend of e-commerce adoption. Traditional vendors are having to digitize to continue selling goods as customers increasingly move to online purchasing.
6
Problem Identification and Research Question Formulation
How can LSPD use strategy to thrive?
The company now sits at one of the most important cross-road of its 15-years history: How can LSPD maintain their competitive advantage in the POS market to reinvigorate their customer locations growth rate?
Above-Average Returns
20,000
27,600
34,900
41,300
49,000
76,500
?
38%
26%
18%
19%
13%
?
-
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
Organic Customer Acquisition
Inorganic Customer Acquisition
Organic Growth Rate
Industry Growth Rate
h
1
Number of LSPD Customer Locations
2
Problem Identification
3
Research Question
▪
For the years leading up to 2016, LSPD profited from its unique competitive positioning as the go-to POS player for SMBs with complex needs to sustain above-average (~20% vs. 8% for the industry) customer locations growth ▪
However, thorough the year as the competition became fiercer (Shopify, Square, etc.) LSPD experienced declining organic customer
acquisition growth rate and slow pullback towards the industry mean ▪
This decline in competitiveness was exacerbated by the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which lockdowns and restrictions put pressure on LSPD’s main customer base (SMBs) ▪
However, COVID-19 was also a catalyst for e-commerce software providers since surviving SMBs realized that e-commerce and the digitalization of their operations would be key to their livelihood post-pandemic
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ANALYSIS
SECTION lI
8
Back-office suite capabilities
•
Lightspeed has industry-leading
back-
office offerings, such as inventory management
•
Enables access to the complex SMBs market, which contains relatively little competition Positive Network Effects
•
Platform enables direct integration to suppliers, increasing stickiness
, lowering customer acquisition costs
, and increasing customer switching costs
•
Enables sustainable cross-selling Competitive Advantages
According to our VRIN analysis of LSPD Source: Statista, Company Filings, McKinsey & Company
Lightspeed competitive advantages
Main competitors facing headwinds to enter market
Economies of Scale
•
First-movers in complex SMBs omni-
channel solutions market
•
Integration of acquisitions in this niche is made easier through combination of their advanced product portfolio, leading to the upselling of software modules
Lack of omni-channel solutions for complex SMBs
•
73% of customers are omni-channel
, meaning there is a need for an omni-
channel solution
•
Competitors (e.g. Oracle, Salesforce) in the segment either focus on e-
commerce or physical channel, leading to loss of market share in the long run
Lack of module integration
•
Competitors are unable to match Lightspeed’s ability to sell an increasing
number of modules
to customers, reducing recurring revenue per customer in the long-term
•
M&A becomes much less effective as Lightspeed’s platform is tailor
-made to integrate new modules
9
Industry Analysis
POS Software Industry is relatively attractive, with moderate profitability potential
Threat of New Entrants
Low
▪
While product differentiation and economies of scale are high, other barriers to entry are relatively low, such as low capital requirements and switching costs, and government policy which isn’t too strict
▪
Expected retaliation is low as well, leading to an overall high threat for new entrants
Threat of Substitutes
Low
▪
Industry operators compete externally with in-house-developed POS software products, particularly those in the hospitality market, and other substitute business software products (ex: those developed by Business Analytics, Enterprise Software Publishing)
▪
Not many similar products exist outside the industry
Bargaining power of buyers
Medium
▪
Many similar solutions available for the clients
▪
However, LSPD offers a unique and comprehensive omni-channel platform well positioned for complex SMBs (only 1 system that integrates all applications)
Rivalry Intensity
High
▪
Many competitors offering similar solutions increase rivalry
▪
Fragmented market with many small competitors growing rapidly
▪
Fast-cycle market
▪
Rivalry mainly based on innovation
1
2
3
4
Note: 4 forces are applicable to Lightspeed’s industry (power of suppliers is non
-applicable)
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10
Competitive Dynamics
Lightspeed faces a very competitive market across its solution set given the number of fast-growing competitors
Note: *In addition to restaurant and retail, Lightspeed recently entered the golf market with the acquisition of Chronogolf (See Appendix for complete competitor analysis)
Key Competitors
Market Commonality*
Resources/Capabilities Similarity
Restaurant
Retail
eCommerce
Payments
POS
▪
Primarily operates down-market for brick-and-
mortar
▪
Strong brand name
▪
Simple product, easy to use for small businesses
▪
Less adapted for complex needs of SMBs
▪
Focuses more on eCommerce than brick-and-
mortar
▪
Strong brand name
▪
Products available for both small and large businesses
▪
Less adapted for complex needs of SMBs
▪
Targets restaurants, offers management, and online ordering solutions
▪
Comprehensive product offering for restaurants
▪
Easily replicable in other geographies
▪
Only present in the US
▪
Targets retail merchants with complex needs and/or multiple locations
▪
Strong product offering adapted for its niche market
▪
Lack of a full omni-channel offering (no proprietary eCommerce module)
Company
Current Strategy
Strengths
Weaknesses
11
▪
Fierce Competitors
▪
Because of their niche positioning, Lightspeed needs to compete against both large players (Shopify, Square, etc.) and small specialized players (Toast, Vend, etc.) ▪
Fast-Cycle Market
▪
The e-commerce and payment space is a multi-billion fast-cycle market opportunity that is still in its early innings; LSPD will have to aggressively compete on R&D and innovation if it wants to stay relevant ▪
Niche Positioning
▪
While Lightspeed is the uncontested leader in e-
commerce and POS for SMBs with complex needs, their nice positioning could hinder (1) total TAM (2) brand recognition outside of this segment. Competitors such as Square and Shopify have a more established brand relative to LSPD as seen in their size and user count
▪
Financial Resources
▪
LSPD is smaller than its main competitors, resulting in less resources to effectuate strategic actions. For example, Shopify has 14x more LTM revenue
▪
Expansion via Accretive Acquisitions
▪
Lightspeed could repeat its accretive roll-up strategy that allowed it to drive inorganic growth and diversify in multiple verticals
▪
Rise in Number of Resilient SMBs
▪
While the COVID-19 pandemic has stress-test many SMBs, their number has been trending upwards for multiple years prior and the resilient SMBs that survive the crisis will be investing in e-commerce and digital POS
▪
Full-Stack Software Offering with Modules and Omnichannel Approach
▪
No other competitors offer a service specialized for SMBs with complex needs that covers payments, front-
end, and back-need operations and collects data from the entire customer lifecycle
▪
Merchant Locations Network
▪
Lightspeed’s merchant network is global, diversified, and numerous which unlocks network effect and economies of scale
SWOT Analysis
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
Helpful
Harmful
External
Internal
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTION llI
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13
Recommendation Thought Process
How should we think about our recommendation generation?
We use these three factors as the pillar for thinking about our recommendations and making sure they are aligned with the compan
y’s goals.
To answer the research question: How can LSPD maintain their competitive advantage in the POS market to reinvigorate their customer locations growth rate?
Our strategy will need to respond to the three following factors.
Generate New Cash Flows
We
need
to
consider
new
markets
or
new
segments
to
help fuel the
company’s
growth
such
as
Africa,
an
untapped
opportunity.
To
better
penetrate
this market, we need to adapt to
the
consumer’s
use of
cash.
Think of the Future Market Needs
Consumers
preferences
are
ever-
changing
, pushing companies to try
to adapt and give them an enormous
number of options. Hence, creating
an
Amazon-like
marketplace
connecting consumers with SMBs
would
allow
customers
to
access
“new”
products and give SMBs low-
cost exposure.
Lightspeed Cash - Africa
LightMarket Pace
Preserving Current Market Position
Expanding
into
new
markets
is
worthless if LSPD
can’t
protect
its
current profitable position. Hence,
to
continue
in
the
direction
of
becoming
a
one-stop shop, we
recommend
offering
clients
to
ship their products
for them to
the end customer.
Lightspeed Shipping
14
High Level of Competition
▪
Developed markets (North America & Europe) are crowded & fragmented
Limited Growth Potential
▪
Customers stick
to their existing modern POS providers due to software integration and are hard to acquire
▪
The main driver for growth is capturing legacy users, who are starting to run out
Recommendation #1
Source: Statista, Company Filings, McKinsey & Company
Current Challenges –
Developed Markets
Opportunity –
African Market
Data Privacy
▪
Lightspeed is limited in the amount of data it can collect due to data privacy laws in Western countries.
▪
Data analytics is what enables advanced insights which clients value
An Untapped Potential in eCommerce
▪
Smooth data privacy laws
▪
Fear from largest ecommerce platforms to enter the market due to cash reliance (60% of transactions)
▪
World’s fastest growing eCommerce market is Africa
Only a few Small Players
Market Share: 42%
Market Cap: 1.83B Market Share: 25%
Market Cap: ~0.7B Market Share: 25%
Market Cap: ~0.9B Market Cap: 15B Introducing Lightspeed Cash
eCommerce & Physical Stores
Suppliers
Suppliers
Existing Offering
Recommendation 1 - Entry in Emerging Markets
15
Recommendation 2 & 3 - Transport Logistics Acquisition & New App
Recommendation #2 & #3
Before: SMBs would handle their shipping & fulfilling independently (time consuming and costly because lack of scale)
After: SMBs will outsource their shipping & fulfilling to LSPD (save time and gain economies of scale)
Recommendation 2 –
Forward Integration into Shipment & Fulfillment
Outpacing the competition:
Will this allow LSPD to increase customer stickiness and retain its competitive advantage? It will as being a fully integrated platform will bring increased convenience to customers all the while increasing their switching costs. LSPD will effectively become a “on
e-
stop shop” that will generate value across customers’ value stick
Recommendation 3 –
LightMarket Pace app
Changing the industry structure:
By allowing SMBs to connect with consumers through the LightMarket Pace app, LSPD would effectively give free advertising to businesses which historically could not afford to have enhanced visibility. LSPD would create a platform with centralized consumer and commerce data, allowing it to be on the forefront of the SMB market; giving LSPD an unmatched ability to monitor and predict. Consumers
Download the app, browse the marketplace, and get notifications about nearby opportunities according to their shopping habits
SMBs
Get increased visibility from consumers and higher access to quality audience
Lightspeed
Has a centralized platform for data collection, which allows it to scale through network effect and a variety of other enhanced core competencies
Merchant
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Q&A
APPENDIX
SECTION IV
18
Appendix Map
I.
Internal Analysis
a.
Primary Research w/ Insiders
b.
Leadership Overview
c.
Annotated Stock Price Chart
d.
Financial Overview
e.
Lightspeed Verticals
f.
Cloud-Based Platform Approach
g.
Legacy Systems vs. Lightspeed
h.
Unit Economics per Business Segment
i.
Subscriptions Offering j.
TAM Buildup
k.
Customer Acquisition Process
l.
Land and Expand Strategy
m.
M&A Strategy
n.
Stakeholders Analysis
o.
Vision & Mission
p.
Resources Analysis
q.
Mapping Resources and Capabilities
r.
Key Areas of Differentiation
s.
Value Chain Analysis
t.
SWOT Analysis
II.
External Analysis
a.
Competitive Landscape Overview
b.
Key Competitors
c.
Summary of Offerings from Peers
d.
Drivers of Competitive Behavior
e.
Competitive Rivalry
f.
GE: Demographic
g.
GE: Technological
h.
GE: Global
i.
GE: Economic
j.
GE: Sociocultural
k.
Porter’s 5 Forces: Threat of New Entrants
III.
Strategic Recommendations
a.
Developed Markets vs. Africa
b.
How to Penetrate the African Market
c.
Lightspeed Shipment Model Overview
d.
Shopify Case Study
e.
LightMarket
Pace
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APPENDIX –
INTERNAL ANALYSIS
SECTION IV –
I
20
Marie Josée Lamothe
Director of the Board
Primary Research
Key takeaways from our call with Gus Papageorgiou and Marie Josée Lamothe
Commentary
As discussed in class, different stakeholders have different biases and point of view on a company. Therefore, in order to obtain the most objective information about Lightspeed and examine its competitive positioning from multiple angles, we performed both primary and secondary research for this project. For our primary research, we contacted and had calls with Gus Papageorgiou (Head of Investor Relations) and Marie Josée Lamothe (Director of the Board). They both were extremely helpful in answering our questions and gave us great insights on the firm’s behind
-the-scenes.
Gus Papageorgiou
Head of Investor Relations
Takeaway #1 –
Competitive Advantage
▪
Lightspeed maintains its competitive advantage through the positive network effects created by the seamless integration of all SMB’s software needs across the supply chain
Takeaway #2 –
M&A Target Identification
▪
Lightspeed targets companies with cloud-based software that easily integrate with the current Lightspeed platform and with a similar go-to-market strategy
Takeaway #3 –
Lightspeed Payments Opportunity
▪
Lightspeed Payments is an important focus for the company and will be an important growth driver moving forward
Call #1 –
Investor Relations
Call #2 –
Board of Directors
Takeaway #1 –
Acquisition Integration
▪
Lightspeed built an adaptable software that can easily integrate new components which explains the company’s success with past acquisitions
Takeaway #2 –
Value Proposition to Retailers
▪
At its core, Lightspeed’s value proposition is to help retailers drive “qualified traffic” to their storefront and increase customer conversion rate
Takeaway #3 –
Management Team
▪
Lightspeed’s management team are the perfect balance between visionary high-achievers and down-to-earth doers
Home
21
Who are Lightspeed’s key executives?
Leadership Overview
Lightspeed executive team is formed of highly-experienced and committed professionals, and will be key to execute on the company
’s future plans
Source: Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ
Dax Dasilva
Founder, CEO & Director
▪
CEO of the company since its foundation in 2005
▪
Received many awards and recognitions through his entrepreneurial journey, including the E&Y Young Entrepreneur of the Year Award in 2012 and Startup Canada’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award in 2016 for both Quebec and Canada
Jean Paul Chauvet
President and Director
▪
Appointed as President in 2016
▪
Previously Chief Revenue Officer (2012-2016)
▪
Prior to Lightspeed, Mr. Chauvet held various leadership position at Atex Group, Nstein Technologies, and IXISOFT Technologies
Brandon Nussey
CFO and COO
▪
Appointed as CFO in 2018
▪
Previously CFO at D2L Inc. (2010-2018)
▪
Various leadership roles at The Descartes Systems Group, including CFO (2000-2007)
Michael DeSimone
CBO
▪
Appointed as Chief Business Officer after the acquisition of ShopKeep in 2020
▪
Leads the commercial strategy for Lightspeed’s Global Retail, Hospitality, and Financial Services businesses
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Commentary
Lightspeed has been generating above-average stock market returns since its IPO in 2019, on the back of strong revenue growth (main drivers being increased GTV and merchant locations), accretive acquisitions, and expansion of their offering into omnichannel solutions. Equity investors have been clement with the company, supporting its multiple follow-on equity offerings to fund its growth (that the company has been prioritizing at the expense of its profitability).
(100%)
-
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
S&P 500
Annotated Stock Price Chart
Since LSPD TSX IPO in 2019 (dual-listed on the NYSE in 2020)
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Stock Price Chart 541%
69%
678%
235%
/
: Earnings Beat/Miss
September 29, 2021
Publication of short report on LSPD by Spruce Point Mgmt.
February 27, 2020
Completion of a ~US$250MM follow-on equity offering
August 9, 2021
Filing of a ~US$715MM follow-
on equity offering
March 7, 2019
LSPD prices IPO at $16 / share, raising CAD$250MM on the TSX
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North America
59%
International
41%
Financial Overview
Over the years, LSPD has became a more international, recurring-revenue-based, and vertically diversified company
Source: Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ Financial Results Summary
(1)
Revenue Mix
(2)
Merchant Mix
(2)
Market Capitalization
(1)
CAD$MM, except per share data; FY ended 3/31/2021
Share Price
$121.05 52 Week High / Low
$43.29 / $126.60 FDSO
148.0 Equity Value
$17,911 (-) Cash & Equivalents
(749.3)
(+) Debt
74.3 Add: Preferred Shares
-
Add: Total Minority Interest
-
Enterprise Value
$17,236 AV / LTM REVENUE
44.9x
AV / NTM REVENUE
23.4x
CAD$MM, unless otherwise noted
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
Total Revenue
38
53
71
96
150
275
YoY Growth (%)
-
39%
34%
36%
56%
84%
Gross Profit
23
34
49
67
101
157
Margin %
59%
65%
69%
70%
67%
57%
EBITDA
(28)
(36)
(24)
(25)
(51)
(110)
Margin %
(74%)
(67%)
(34%)
(26%)
(34%)
(40%)
Net Income
(63)
(73)
(119)
(228)
(66)
(154)
Margin %
(166%)
(137%)
(169%)
(237%)
(44%)
(56%)
Diluted EPS
(2.27)
(2.50)
(4.10)
(6.86)
(0.77)
(1.47)
Notes:
1.
Market data as of November 2, 2021
2.
Financial data as of March 31, 2021 (~120 000 customer locations)
Subscription and Transaction-Based
91%
Hardware and Other
9%
By Vertical
By Geography
Retail
55%
Hospitality
45%
By Revenue Stream
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24
Retail
Restaurant
Golf
Apparel
Bar
Multi-Course
Bike
Café
Municipal
CBD
Full Service
Private Electronics
Hotel
Public
Gift Store
Quick Service
Resorts
Health
Other
Semi-Private
Home Décor
Other
Jewelry
Liquor
Pet
Sporting Goods
Toy
Vape
Other
Business Level Overview
What are the verticals in which Lightspeed operate?
Source: Company Website
Sample Customers
Commentary
Lightspeed has been extremely strategic in its diversification into other verticals. Having niche offerings allows the company to leverage the perks of the differentiation business-level strategy. It is interesting to note that the majority of the diversification has been performed inorganically through acquisitions (Chronogolf for Golf, Upserve for Restaurant)
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25
Lightspeed
Payments
POS
E-Commerce
Logistics
Inventory Management
Data & Analytics
Cloud-Based Platform Approach to Retail / E-Commerce
How Shopify and Lightspeed create value for merchants
Cloud-Based Platform approach to Retail / E-Commerce
Old way of Retail / E-Commerce
Merchants
Payments
POS
E-Commerce
Logistics
Inventory Management
Data & Analytics
Merchants
Commentary
Value can be defined by a product's performance characteristics and attributes for which customers are willing to pay. For Lightspeed, merchants pay for the convenience of using a platform instead of multiple individual software. This value proposition is particularly strong for SMBs, who don’t have the resources to afford / organize multiple software providers.
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26
Legacy Systems vs. Lightspeed’s Platform
Lightspeed's version of the cloud-based platform approach
Legacy Systems
Lightspeed Platform
Cashier POS Software
Accounting Software
Inventory Management Software
Payment Processor
Commentary
Legacy POS systems are disparate and lack integration with multiple applications (register, transaction terminal, points system, accounting, inventory management, etc.) whereas the Lightspeed platform offers a one-stop-shop for merchants to organize their payments, front-end, and back-end operations.
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27
Business Segment
Description
Pricing
Gross Margin
Merchant Services
▪
Sale of POS hardware
▪
Professional services in installation support and implementation
NA
~10%
Software Revenue
▪
Basic subscription includes 1 register, integrated payments, accounting, and e-commerce
▪
Additional front-end and back-
end modules sold to customers on a monthly basis
C$89 - 229 / month
For retailers
~75%
Lightspeed Payments
▪
Revenue generated on all Gross Transaction Value (“GTV”) processed through LSPD Payments
2.6% + 10c
Normal rate
2.6% + 30c
Card-not-present rate
~25%
Business Level Overview
How does Lightspeed make money?
For the three-
month period ended June 30, 2021, 92% of LSPD’s revenue were Software or Payments
-based
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28
Lean
Standard
Advanced
Price
C$89 / mo.
C$159 / mo.
C$229 / mo.
Products
Retail POS
✔️
✔️
✔️
Registers
(additional registers + CAD$39 / mo.)
1 Register
1 Register
1 Register
Integrated payment
✔️
✔️
✔️
Accounting
✔️
✔️
eCommerce
✔️
✔️
Omnichannel Loyalty
✔️
Analytics Core
✔️
Services
Card-present rate
2.6% + 10c
2.6% + 10c
2.6% + 10c
24/7 customer support
✔️
✔️
✔️
One on one onboarding
✔️
✔️
✔️
Additional free training
✔️
✔️
✔️
Dedicated account manager
✔️
✔️
✔️
Business Overview
How does Lightspeed price its offering for retailers?
Source: Company Website
Commentary
Lightspeed’s pricing strategy is based on product bundling and price discrimination. Merchants choose between the “Lean”, “Standard”, and “Advanced” subscription depending on their budget and needs. Furthermore, Lightspeed offers quotes to higher volume merchants and large businesses (“Enterprise”). Pricing for Restaurants and Golf is similar. Home
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▪
As of February 2021, ~39B in LTM GTV (pro forma for Upserve and ShopKeep)
▪
75% of transactions via credit cards
▪
80% fulfilled by Lightspeed Payments
▪
2.6% + 10c pricing scheme
▪
~4.9MM Customers Base
▪
Incremental $38B in TAM
▪
Scenario with better penetration of the ~4.9MM customer base
▪
40% of customers adopt >1 module
▪
Fully penetrated merchant = ~$500 in monthly software ARPU/location
▪
Assuming 50% of the customer base is fully penetrated, and 50% is running at ~300/month/location
▪
Incremental $25B in TAM
▪
~220MM SMBs globally
▪
~47MM are Retail and Restaurants
▪
~6MM have complex needs
▪
80% are in industries covered by LSPD
▪
pre-Payments monthly ARPU of ~200/customer
▪
Core opportunity of $12B
#2 –
Expansion Opportunity
#1 –
Core Opportunity
#3
–
Addressable Opportunity
Business Model Overview
$12B
$37B
$75B
$5B
$15B
$25B
$35B
$45B
$55B
$65B
$75B
Core Opportunity
Expanded TAM
Addressable TAM
Total Addressable Market (Estimation)
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Is Lightspeed’s TAM large enough to sustain long
-term growth?
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Business Model Overview
$75B
Core Opportunity
Expanded TAM
Addressable TAM
Total Addressable Market (Estimation)
Lightspeed’s potential customer base has a value of $75B, which represents what LSPD could generate revenues of $75B if it captures 100% of the market
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Is Lightspeed’s TAM large enough to sustain long
-term growth?
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Step 3
Finalize Package and Pricing
Step 5
Virtual Installation & Onboarding
Step 4
Shipping Hardware
Step 1
Lightspeed Website
Google-Sponsored Research
Website Advertisements
Social Media Presence
Review Websites
Partnership
Word of Mouth
Step 2
Sales Hotline
Robot Assistant
Business Model Overview
How does Lightspeed acquire new customers?
Source: Company Filings, National Bank Financial
Lightspeed’s Customer Acquisition Process
Online
Offline
Commentary
First, a merchant engages with LSPD online or offline. Second, the prospect is connected to LSPD’s direct sales team (which physically sits beside the marketing group). Third, the prospect is connected to the on-boarding group (which sits physically beside sales). The entire process, except shipping, happens online, enabling operating leverage. While LSPD does not provide its cost of acquisition, we estimate its Lifetime Value: Customer Acquisition Cost target to be ~3-5:1
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Commentary
A significant growth opportunity exist in LSPD’s current customer base. As explained in page 21, management predicts that the current ARPU of ~$200/mo. could be expanded to ~$500/mo. if the merchant was “fully penetrated” (subscribed to multiple add-
on modules). Thus, LSPD’s “land and expand” strategy is a key growth pathway for the company
EXPAND
Business Model Overview
How can Lightspeed leverage its existing customer base (increase its average revenue per user, “ARPU”)?
Source: Company Filings, National Bank Financial
Lightspeed’s “Land and Expand” Strategy
LAND
MARKETING
Targeted acquisition and growth strategy
ONBOARDING & TRAINING
First touchpoint and ensuring optimal product usage
CGS
Creating upsell demand
ADD-ON SALE
Front and back-
office additional modules
FIRST SALE
Simplified pricing, local currencies, flexible contracts
SDR
Structured customer qualification process
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M&A Strategy
2014
Acquisition of POSIOS
–
entry into restaurant market
2015
2017
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021
Acquisition of SEOShop
–
entry into eCommerce
Acquisition of CrankLogic
–
Turned into LSPD Analystics
Acquisition of ReUp
–
Turned into LSPD Loyalty
Acquisition of Chronogolf
Acquisition of iKentoo
Acquisition of Kounta
Acquisition of Gastrofix
Acquisition of ShopKeep
Acquisition of Upserve
1
2
3
4
Geographic expansion for existing solutions
Targeted take-outs in existing markets
Expansion of platform into adjacencies
Consolidation in certain complex verticals (e.g. retail - bike shops)
Inorganic growth: Lightspeed’s goals
Acquisition timeline
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Host Communities
The financial industry is highly regulated and LSPD has to respect the reporting laws of the many country in which it operates. Furthermore, SMBs (LSPD target customers) tend to have stronger ties to local communities than multinational corporations.
Business Level Overview
Who are Lightspeed’s important stakeholders?
Stakeholders Analysis Tool
Positive
Negative
Low
High
Stakeholder Interests / Expectations
Importance to Success
Capital Markets Investor
LSPD is entering its growth phase and is not yet profitable. Thus, it requires frequent and significant financing (particularly equity) to fund its operations
Capital Markets
Product-Market
Organizational
Merchants LSPD’s core mission and strategy revolve around making life easier for merchants and offering them an end-to-end omnichannel cloud platform
R&D and S&M Leaders and Employees
S&M is key for customer acquisition and retention
and R&D is key for platform innovation. Both are
extremely
important
as
the
POS
market
is
a
fragmented and fast-cycle market.
Suppliers LSPD mainly leverages suppliers for its hardware devices, which represent a small % of its offering / revenue mix
Short Sellers
Firms like Spruce Point Capital Management profit when Lightspeed’s stock depreciates. However, the company refuted most of their claims and the stock moved minimally upon the release of their report.
Competitors
Competition is fierce in the SMBs payment and e-
commerce space. Other firms like Shopify and Square are actively competing with LSPD to capture market share in the early-innings of what is believe to be a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
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Business Level Overview
What is Lightspeed’s vision and mission and how did it evolve over time?
Source: Company Website
Dax Dasilva founded Lightspeed in 2005 as a server-based retail management solution for Mac. From there, the company grew, and went on to create the first fully-featured POS for iPad, develop eCommerce integrations for brick-and-mortar retailers, and create a new, web-based POS platform with LightSpeed Cloud.
1
Lightspeed (2005)
2
Lightspeed POS (September 2020)
3
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (August 2021)
In 2014, Lightspeed launched “Lightspeed Restaurant”, their first foray into a vertical that would account for ~half of their merchant base a few years later. With that launch, the company decided to changed its name to “Lightspeed POS” to reflect its evolution from a retail-centric POS provider into a global, cloud-based commerce platform. On August 5 2021, at its annual shareholders meeting ,the company changed its name from “Lightspeed POS” to “Lightspeed Commerce”. This was done with the intention of more accurately represent Lightspeed’s current and future offerings, which is expanding towards servicing omnichannel commerce solutions. In the company’s word, “Lightspeed is revolutionizing commerce and is set to become much more than point
-of-
sale software.”
Commentary
From Collins and Porras (1996), companies that enjoy enduring success have core values and a core purpose that remain fixed, while their business strategies and practices endlessly adapt to the changing environment. This is exactly the case with Lightspeed. While staying committed to their core purpose of creating technology that powers all of Main Street, they’ve adapted their offering to answer the merchants’ demand for cloud
-based and omni-channel software.
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Business Level Overview
What are Lightspeed’s tangible and intangible resources?
Tangible Resources
Intangible Resources
Financial Resources
▪
~CAD$275MM in revenue
▪
~CAD$750MM in cash on balance sheet ready to deploy for acquisitions or internal capital expenditures
▪
Strong access to capital markets (raised >US~$1B over the past 2 years in secondary equity offering)
▪
Backed by high-conviction institutional investors, such as the Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec
Human Resources
▪
From our conversation with the company and its board of directors, Dax Dasilva (CEO) is a charismatic and visionary leader, with strong collaborative and team-building skills
▪
From our conversation with the company, management emphasizes collaboration between business segment of offer a streamlined experience to customers
Physical Resources
▪
13 offices around the world (Montreal, London, Ottawa, Olympia, Ghent, Amsterdam, Brisbane, Paris, Zurich, Lausanne, Geneva, Berlin, Hamburg)
Innovation Resources
▪
Organic innovation through internal R&D and engineering team
▪
Inorganic innovation through acquisition of other POS players or players acting elsewhere in the software stack
▪
Lightspeed named CIX 2019 “Innovator of the Year”
Organizational Resources
▪
Excellent Sales & Marketing team that identify potential merchants, respond to inbounds, and upsell current customers
▪
Industry-leading R&D team that create new modules for the Lightspeed platform and integrate acquired software
▪
Public Relations team lead Lightspeed's front-facing effort by leading initiatives such as the blog with free tools for merchants (ex: in 2021, LSPD collaborated with the McGill Bensadoun School of Retail Management to create a report on the Global State of the Hospitality Industry)
Reputational Resources
▪
Strong brand name within the SMBs / POS industry
▪
Perceived by industry experts as one of the market leaders in the space and a go-to solution for SMBs with complex needs
▪
Won “Expert Choice Award” in the POS software category from FinancesOnline (2017)
▪
Won CVCA “VC Private Capital Regional Impact Award” for Eastern Ontario in 2020
Technological Resources
▪
Own intellectual property rights on their brand and their software solutions
▪
Often acquire other players in the space to obtain access to their technology, that is then bolted-on the main Lightspeed platform and offered as an additional module
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Resources, Capabilities, Core Competencies, and Competitive Advantages
Resources
Capabilities
Core Competencies
Financial
Physical
Organizational
Technological
Human
Innovation
Reputational
Tangible
Intangible
Full-Stack Offering
International Expansion
Mergers & Acquisitions
Sales & Marketing and Land & Expand Strategy
Merchant Acquisition & Retention
Full-Stack Offering
Mergers & Acquisitions
Sales & Marketing and Land & Expand Strategy
How does Lightspeed leverage its resources into capabilities, and capabilities into core competencies?
Only full-stack platform for SMBs with complex needs
Does more and integrates better acquisitions than peers
Maintained above-average merchant locations growth for multiple years
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Lightspeed’s Key Areas of Differentiation Source: Morgan Stanley
Comprehensive omni-channel platform
Complex SMB
Supplier Initiatives
SaaS Platform
Customer Support
Lightspeed Payments
LSPD’s platform is differentiated by its cloud
-based front office interface/integration and its back-
office sophistication to serve complex SMBs LSPD has advanced inventory management abilities compared to peers, enabling them to serve merchants with a large amount of SKUs or a particularly fast or slow inventory turnover
Products such as the LSPD Supplier Network ultimately enable referrals within a specific sub-
vertical
Lightspeed's modern cloud platform enables more reliability, remote access to data and applications, better security, and ability to run on basic iPad vs. proprietary hardware for legacy systems.
Customers believe LSPD has superior support –
from virtual training to solving customer challenges
Allows for faster sales processing and refunds, and eliminates the need to enter transactions manually / twice
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VRIN Analysis of Core Competencies
Source: Statista, Company Filings, McKinsey & Company
Valuable
Rare
Costly to Imitate
Non-substitutable
Back-office suite capabilities
(R&D)
✓
Provides more value to customers needing such features leading to higher sales ✓
competitors are unable to integrate these capabilities
✓
Requires a lot of R&D
✓
No substitutes for the advanced features
Hardware
(R&D)
✘
Seamless integration with software provides value to customer, increasing sales
✘
Widely available and used for decades
✘
Widely available and used for decades
✘
Lots of alternatives such as mobile-based and cloud-
based solutions
Economies of Scale
(Sales & Marketing)
✓
Saas cost is mainly fixed cost, hence economies of scale are key to profitability
✓
Achieving economies of scale can only be done by the first few largest players
✓
Achieving them requires the acquisition of a large customer base
✓
Need to be a large company
POS Platform
(R&D)
✓
Provides value to SMBs selling products to their clients
✘
Widely available and used for decades
✓
Developing it requires time and a lot of R&D ✘
Lots of alternatives such as mobile-based and cloud-
based solutions
Positive Network Effects
(Customer Relationship Management, R&D)
✓
Makes client want their suppliers to use LSPD, which increases sales
✓
Only fully-integrated omnichannel software providers can achieve and lightspeed one of the only
✓
Requires time to attract customers and keep them over time
✓
No substitutes for such a business model
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Lightspeed’s Value Chain Support Functions
Finance
Human Resources
Management Information Systems
Value Chain Activities
Cloud-Computing Provider
Cloud-Storage Provider
User Onboarding
R&D
Lightspeed
Software Platform
Sources of Competitive Advantage
Customer Acquisition
Customer Service
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41
Business Model Overview
SWOT Analysis Appendix
Strengths:
Lightspeed offers broader software modules with their omni-channel approach. Competitors could offer similar payment systems,
or POS systems, but they are unable to compete with lightspeed when it comes to offering customers (businesses) an integrated
end-to-end software system. Lightspeed also has a remarkably high reach. They have more than 150k locations around the world,
which allows them to have a larger TAM and serve more businesses.
Weaknesses:
One of
Lightspeed’s
weaknesses is its low global brand awareness relative to their large-scale competitors: Square and Shopify.
Even though Lightspeed is showing incredible year-over-year sales growth, they are still extremely behind their competitors in
terms of profitability. For instance, Square currently has 3 times more EBITDA and 30 times higher sales revenue. The financial
suggest that although LSPD caters to a niche market (SMBs) its business model might not capture a large enough market
Opportunities:
LSPD should aim to scale its supplier network. This would allow LSPD to build its brand with scale. Lightspeed can also
geographically expand through acquisitions as organic growth in foreign markets would be more tedious. Acquisitions would allow
Lightspeed to expand geographically as well as technologically. Evolving from only retail to restaurant POS systems is also a very
viable opportunity that Lightspeed is trying to tackle right now as it could allow it to handle a higher order velocity.
Threats:
They have strong competitors that have a swift and agile approach to running their business. This means that competitors such as
Square and Shopify are constantly moving and improving. Thus, it becomes particularly important for lightspeed to be able to
predict what they are doing and respond appropriately. Hypercompetition is present in the industry even though LSPD targets a
specific market segment. Being able to respond to tactical actions is of the utmost importance for LSPD
SWOT Analysis
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APPENDIX –
EXTERNAL ANALYSIS
SECTION IV –
lI
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Competitive Landscape of Lightspeed
There are many competitors in the POS market ranging from large multinationals to niche players
Source: National Bank Financial
Legacy/Incumbents
Acquiring Banks (Payment)
New Entrants
Niche POS Providers
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Key Competitors
Source: Equity Research
Restaurant-Focused Competitors
Future Objectives
Current Strategy
Assumptions
Strengths
Toast
Expand internationally
Sells to customers in most market segments in the US. Offers management, and online ordering solutions
Only run on Android to differentiate itself
•
Comprehensive product offering for restaurants
•
Easily replicable in other geographies
TouchBistro
Expand internationally
Targets full-service, quick-
service, bars & nightclubs, food trucks, and breweries
Believes in the importance of hardware resilience in the case of internet outage
•
Resilient software in the case of internet issues
Retail-Focused Competitors
Future Objectives
Current Strategy
Assumptions
Strengths
Vend
Developing a comprehensive omni-
channel platform Targets merchants with complex needs and/or multiple locations
Integrates with third-party platforms for eCommerce
•
Solid product offering adapted for its niche market
Cross-Segment Competitors
Future Objectives
Current Strategy
Assumptions
Strengths
Square
Developing a comprehensive platform with its own eCommerce solution and POS app
Primarily operates down-
market for brick-and-mortar
Believes in the importance of simplicity of their offering
•
Strong brand name
•
Simple product, easy to use for small businesses
Shopify
Becoming a broader platform of omni-channel solutions
Focuses more on eCommerce than brick-and-
mortar
eCommerce is key to short term and long term growth
•
Strong brand name
•
Targeting both small and large businesses
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Summary of Offerings from Various Vendors
Price for Tier 1 Retail POS
Retail Processing Fees
Summary of Features-POS Offerings
$99.00 $29.00 $99.00 $99.00 $75.00 $79.00 $69.00 $99.00 $60.00 $99.00 $0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Average of $80.70
2.6%
3.0%
2.8%
Not publicly disclosed
2.5%
2.6%
Not publicly disclosed
2.6%
Not publicly disclosed
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Average of 2.7%
Type
Vendor
One-Stop Shop for Omni Channel
Front End Capabilities
Back End Capabilities Cloud
Payment
Developer-
Friendly
eCommerce
Hardware
Target Vertical Merchant Complexity
New Entrant
Lightspeed
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
Yes
Yes-Integrated eCommerce
3rd Party
Retail & Restaurant
Small-Medium
Legacy/Incumbent
Heartland
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
No
Inhouse
Retail & Restaurant
Medium-Large
Legacy/Incumbent
NCR-Aloha
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
No
Inhouse
Restaurant
Small-Large
Legacy/Incumbent
NCR-Retail
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
Yes - via NCR eCommerce
Inhouse
General
Large
Legacy/Incumbent
Oracle-Micros
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
Yes - via Oracle eCommerce Cloud
Inhouse
Restaurant
Medium-Large
Legacy/Incumbent
SAP
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Retail
Large
Legacy/Incumbent
Aptos
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
No
3rd Party
Retail
Large
Legacy/Incumbent
Microsfot
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Retail
Medium-Large
Legacy/Incumbent
QuickBooks POS
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Retail
Small-Medium
Niche POS Provider
Touchbistro
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Restaurant
Small-Medium
Niche POS Provider
Toast
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
Some-Online ordering
3rd Party
Restaurant
Small-Medium
Niche POS Provider
SilverwarePOS
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Hospitality
Small-Medium
Niche POS Provider
Phorest
Yes
No
Yes
Some
No
3rd party
No
No
3rd Party
Salon
Small-Medium
Niche POS Provider
Revel
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
No
Some-Online ordering
3rd Party
Retail & Restaurant
Small-Medium
New Entrant
Vend
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
3rd party
No
Yes-Integrated eCommerce
3rd Party
Retail
Small-Medium
New Entrant
Shopify POS
Yes
Yes
Some
Some
Yes
Inhouse
Yes
Yes-Integrated eCommerce
3rd Party
Retail
Small-Medium
New Entrant
Square
Yes
Yes
Some
Some
Yes
Inhouse
Yes
Yes-Integrated eCommerce
Inhouse
General
Small-Medium
New Entrant
Clover (First Data)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inhouse
Yes
Yes - via Clover Online
Inhouse
Retail & Restaurant
Small-Medium
New Entrant
Paypal POS
Via 3rd party
Partnership with other vendors
Inhouse
No
No
Inhouse
General
Small-Medium
New Entrant
ERPLY
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
3rd party
Yes
No
3rd Party
Retail
Small-Medium
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Drivers of Competitive Behavior
Lightspeed is well positioned to compete and grow in a very competitive industry
Awareness
▪
Many firms in the industry operate in the same markets as Lightspeed and often have similar resources
▪
Lightspeed recognizes the degree of their mutual interdependence with competitors as demonstrated by multiple acquisitions in recent years to offer a unique and differentiated platform
Motivation
▪
Lightspeed operates in a fast-cycle market with many small competitors growing rapidly and trying to gain market share
▪
Lightspeed is motivated to compete in the industry since it perceives that its market position could suffer if it doesn’t respond
Ability
▪
From our discussion with Marie-Josée
Lamothe (Director), Lightspeed’s executives are outperformers who are always looking for ways to improve the company and its offering
▪
The company expects to keep growing organically at 30%+ per year and execute more acquisitions to further improve its offering
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Competitive Rivalry
Lightspeed operates in competitive markets where it competes with many other firms also having similar capabilities
▪
First-mover benefits: Lightspeed has been one of the early players in the industry (complex SMBs) and can now benefit from an advanced technology and brand loyalty. ▪
Organizational size:
Small competitors are important to monitor in the near-term, as the market will eventually mature and consolidate into a few players. They also represent potential acquisition targets.
▪
Quality:
Lightspeed’s platform is known to be very well adapted for complex SMB needs. They are also constantly improving it by adding new features to meet the needs of their customers. Therefore, the company is well positioned to attack competitors entering in its niche market.
Likelihood of Attack
▪
Type of competitive actions: Additional competitors may add POS features to their existing solutions and/or expand to new markets (tactical actions). Lightspeed is likely to respond to these actions.
▪
Actor’s reputation: Given its aggressive M&A strategy and past acquisitions, LSPD is seen as a fierce competitor that does not back-off from the competitive dynamics within industries, it is therefore likely to respond to actions directed toward them.
▪
Market dependence:
Lightspeed is becoming more and more diversified over the years as they enter in new geographies and offer their services to new markets. However, Lightspeed still focuses on complex SMBs so it is likely to respond to competitors entering this niche market and trying to capture valuable market share.
Likelihood of Response
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General Environment Trends
Demographic
Source: Barclays Equity Research, Harvard Business Review, IBIS World
#1. E-Commerce is a Growing Share of Retail Commerce
Retail spending has seen a gradual shift towards online channels or e-commerce due to mainstreaming of online giants such as Amazon, as well as physical brick and mortar stores providing online storefronts and mobile channels. E-commerce as a % of total retail sales is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of 5.4%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
10%
12%
14%
17%
18%
19%
21%
10A
11A
12A
13A
14A
15A
16A
17A
18A
19A
20A
21E
22E
23E
#2. Consumers Prefer an Omni-channel Shopping Experience
While e-commerce penetration continues to grow, physical stores are here to stay as consumers prefer shopping from several channels, including going in-store to try out merchandise. Thus, omni-channel commerce brings together the best of both worlds.
Not only are consumer buying preferences shifting online, vendors also benefit from when consumers use multiple channels or touchpoints to transact. A survey indicates 4-10% more money is spent by omni-channel vs single-channel customers, 23% more repeat shopping trips within 6 months after an omni-channel shopping experience, and 13% greater in-store spending among omni-
channel shoppers who browse the company’s / it’s rivals’ website beforehand.
7%
20%
73%
Online Only
Store Only
Omni-channel
65%
45%
78%
32%
13%
Physical Store
Online Store
Amazon
eBay
Facebook
73%
of consumers prefer omni-channel and 65%
of consumers shopped in physical stores during the first 6 months of 2019
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General Environment Trends
Technological
Source: Barclays Equity Research, BRP Consulting, Company Filings, Harvard Business Review
#1. Legacy information systems becoming obsolete
Legacy on-premise POS systems require large upfront investments, technical know-how for installation and ongoing maintenance which suit the needs of large businesses, not SMB’s. This is causing legacy POS to be replaced within the SMB customer base.
Modernization is the top reason SMB’s are looking to replace their current POS systems
31%
21%
20%
Modernize
Faulty Current System
Improve Inventory Tracking
#2. Increased Demand for Cloud-Based POS Systems
Modern POS systems leverage the benefits of cloud to address the needs of today’s digital SMB’s. They are cost efficient, all
ow SMB’s to be up and running quickly, less frequent updates that do not require much technical expertise, and increased optiona
lity.
Adoption of Cloud-Based POS Systems Continues to Increase, But has a Long Way to Go
Top 3 reasons SMB’s replace POS systems
40%
35%
27%
24%
22%
15%
13%
BI / Reporting
CRM
Inventory
Order Management
POS
Returns
Pricing
#3. Consumers are looking for tech enabled shopping
Omni-Channel commerce is increasingly becoming the minimum requirement, and omni-channel integration and unified commerce platforms are key POS priorities for SMB customers.
Cloud penetration for retail store systems
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General Environment Trends
Technological (cont’d)
Overall, technological trends are acting as a tailwind to Lightspeed’s business and their goal to become a one
-stop shop for its clients
#4. Need for End-to-End Solutions
SMB’s do not have technical resources to stitch together multiple digital platforms across front
-office and back-office, so are seeking POS platforms providing end-to-end functionality.
Cloud-based omni-channel commerce platforms are differentiated based on breadth and depth of back-office functionality along with core front-office POS and e-commerce offerings. Most cloud-based POS systems go for simplicity and do not address the value-added modules for back-office management.
Less than Half of the SMB Customers Highlighted that their IT systems can Handle Basic Back-Office Functions
41%
41%
41%
39%
34%
34%
25%
Inventory
Loss Prevention
Order Management
Loyalty Program
Pricing/Promotions
Analytics/Reporting
Returns Management
Percentage of SMB’s that are satisfied with their IT systems’ ability to cope with back-office functions
Source: Barclays Equity Research, BRP Consulting, Company Filings, Harvard Business Review
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General Environment Trends
Global
Source: Barclays Equity Research, eMarketer, Harvard Business Review
#1. COVID-19 Accelerated the E-Commerce Shopping Trend
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend of e-commerce adoption. Traditional vendors are having to digitize to continue selling goods as customers increasingly move to online purchasing. E-Commerce as a % of Total Retail Sales and E-Commerce Sales Growth and Penetration Have Increased Due to COVID
10.8%
11.2%
11.3%
11.8%
16.1%
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
18.0%
14.0%
14.5%
14.0%
2020
2019
Post-COVID
vs Pre-COVID
Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth
E-Commerce as a % of Total Retail Sales
Post-COVID
vs Pre-COVID
Retail E-Commerce Penetration
11.0%
14.5%
14.6%
15.1%
11.0%
12.0%
13.7%
13.6%
2019
2020
2021
2022
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General Environment Trends
Economic
Source: Barclays Equity Research, Harvard Business Review, McKinsey, OECD, Statistics Canada
#1. Consumer Spending Habits
5 Consumer Themes Below Have Emerged in 2021:
#2. Large Corporations Disproportionately Profited From the Pandemic
In April, the OECD estimated that, across 32 countries, 70 to 80% of SMBs had experienced a drop in revenue of between 30 and 50%. Larger businesses have been slightly less hard-hit as a group, but the pandemic amplified a divergence between leading companies and the rest.
This implies that now, more than ever, SMB’s are in need of a cost
-efficient POS solution
#3. Economic Recovery
Following the onset of the pandemic, Canada experienced a drastic drop in its real gross domestic product (GDP), with the economy contracting 18.2% between March and April 2020.Note With the gradual easing of pandemic-related restrictions, the business climate began to improve. GDP grew for eleven consecutive months, although overall economic activity is about 1% below February 2020’s pre
-pandemic level.
Omni-channel is Ascendant:
60-70% of adults are omni-channel consumers; both brick-and-mortar business and e-commerce are growing.
Spending is Strong but Bifurcated:
Spending is growing by 6%
vs pre-pandemic trajectory; higher incomes, younger consumers spend more.
Recovery Differs Across Categories:
Acceleration continues in many categories; travel and out-of-home consumption declined with the Delta variant.
Homebody Economy Continues:
Almost 50% of consumers buy out-of-home products; investment in homes continues
Loyalty Shake-Up Continues:
~75% of consumers continue to switch brands; ~90% among millennials and high-income consumers
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General Environment Trends
Sociocultural Trends
Overall, the general environment trends will act as a catalyst towards Lightspeed’s growth
Source: Harvard Business Review, IBIS World, Small Business Trends
Customers Prefer the Experience Small-Scale Businesses Offer Over Large Corporations
▪
Tailored offerings and great customer service allow SMBs to forge deeper personal relationships with customers. According to a Zendesk survey, 91% of respondents prefer small businesses when convenient, while 74% actively search for opportunities to support SMBs even when it is not convenient.
▪
The advantage small businesses have is their ability to provide niche and differentiating offerings to meet customer demand. In turn, these happy customers will give positive reviews to acquaintances and coworkers —
boosting their reputation.
Sociocultural
Note: Legal / Political and Sustainable Physical Environment was deemed invalid for Lightspeed’s industry
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Porter’s 5 Forces
Threat of New Entrants
Source: Company Filings, Equity Research, IBIS World
Barriers to Entry
#1. Economies of Scale
: High
- Companies in the POS software space are likely to realize economies of scale and operating leverage as fixed costs such as product development, marketing, and general and administrative expenses are spread across a larger revenue base
#2. Product Differentiation: High
-
Each POS software provider claims to offer a unique set of functions / value proposition. For instance, Lightspeed’s cloud POS competitor in the restaurant market, Toast, has a comprehensive product offering. It allows restaurants to setup a direct online channel; most competitors lack this capability or require the use of a third-party app. Toast is also unique in their go-to-
market approach due to their sizeable sales force. Finally, Toast’s solution only runs on Android hardware, which they believe is a competitive differentiator due to the lower cost and as this this enables it to offer a broader range of form factors (such as Toast Go, a handheld that can accept payments and “that can fit into a kitchen apron pocket”) and hardware that’s more physically resilient, due to being commercial
-grade rather than consumer-grade (ex: better able to withstand kitchen grease or being dropped). Similar to Toast, another one of Lightspeed’s competitors, Square, claims to have a unique and
differentiated product. They have a development platform, which allows developers, or restaurants (such as Shake Shack, which is
using this platform), to develop their own POS apps that can leverage Square’s hardware and payment processing. #3. Capital Requirements: Low
- Low capital requirements with companies spending $0.05 on capital for every $1.00 spent on labor. Most software companies need limited capital goods, like server computers and office space. In most ways, software can be
considered an intangible product, and producing quality software chiefly requires talented employees and time. Companies in this
industry rarely encode their software on discs themselves and generally prefer to outsource that activity. On average, this industry spends nearly 40.0% of revenue on employee wages, which is only expected to increase moving forward. The largest companies employ hundreds of workers to develop industry software and require vastly more office space than their smaller counterparts.
$0.22 $0.14 $0.05 Economy
Sector
Industry
The industry capital ratio is much lower than the overall economy; spending $0.05 on capital (vs $0.22) for every $1.00 spent on labor. Therefore, labor is the most valuable resource in this industry as opposed to capital.
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Porter’s 5 Forces
Threat of New Entrants (cont’d)
The POS software industry has low barriers to entry and expected retaliation, meaning the threat of new entrants is high
Source: Company Filings, Equity Research, IBIS World
Barriers to Entry
#4. Switching Costs: Medium
- Customers of POS software have medium switching costs. Businesses develop a level of trust and familiarity with larger POS software developers, which makes them reluctant to switch to another provider. Furthermore, the switching process would involve transferring large amounts of data and integrating the overall system to a new software provider. However, at the same time, new entrants often introduce a new technology or cost-
saving advantage targeting SMB’s, which may make them inclined to shift POS software providers. #5. Access to Distribution Channels: Low
- Typically, access to distribution channels acts as a barrier to entry in consumer nondurable goods industries (such as in grocery stores where shelf space is limited). In the POS software space, distribution is not a major factor given the software can be purchased and integrated relatively easily
#6. Cost Disadvantages Independent of Scale: Medium
–
Existing competitors have certain cost advantages such as proprietary product technology and new combinations of services offered as part of the POS software package (ex: Toast, as mentioned in the previous page). However, these can be easily replicated / companies can work around the patents and create similar products or offer other unique services.
#7. Government Policy: Low
-
Government policy doesn’t have a significant impact on the POS software industry. While regulations around patents and intellectual property may increase barriers to entry, software companies typically find ways around these patents to create a different product which offers similar features. Lastly, anti-trust regulations tend to be an issue for large software companies such as Facebook and Amazon, but not for POS software companies looking to pursue acquisitions in the mid-market space with an average transaction value of ~$300M.
Expected Retaliation
Low:
Expected retaliation of competitors is low. Companies are aware of the existence of several smaller players and that they are growing very rapidly. They respond by integrating more features to their platform to remain the best option for complex SMBs.
However, part of their strategy is to acquire threatening small competitors, as M&A
Represents a Lever to Further Accelerate Growth.
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APPENDIX –
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTION IV –
llI
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57
Comparison of Developed Markets & Africa
Lightspeed’s most attractive expansion opportunity
The African market offers more opportunity for growth and lower legal hurdles for data collection and analytics, making an untapped opportunity.
Sources: Statista, FinancesOnline, McKinsey North America & Europe
Africa
Political & Legal Env.
▪
Smoother regulatory environment given the new arrival of generalized use of internet
▪
Large set of laws to protect privacy of users
Growth Potential
▪
Africa’s economy is less formal and the use of cash
is dominant for transactions. Most stores don’t use modern POS systems. ▪
Africa is the continent who’s expected to see the highest growth in eCommerce due to the increasing access to internet, its young demography, and the wide use of mobile phones.
▪
92% of corporations already use or are in the process of using cloud-
based POS ▪
eCommerce sales in these markets are expected to keep growing. However, eCommerce is already an established and widely used option. Hence, the total eCommerce market has a medium growth potential
. 0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Actual
Projected
North America - eCommerce Growth (millions)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Actual
Projected
Africa - eCommerce Growth (millions)
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Comparison of Developed Markets & Africa
Lightspeed’s most attractive expansion opportunity
North America & Europe
Africa
Growth Potential
▪
There are very few players (4 companies control 92% of the market) in the POS systems and payment processing industries in Africa. The established players only offer software limited to payment processing or registering, but nothing on the scale of the one-stop all-
inclusive model of Lightspeed.
▪
Largely fragmented and competitive market
. Clients tend to stick to the same POS provider due to the high switching cost caused by the complex implementation of a new POS and the loss of the integration smoothness with other platforms. Source: Statista, IBISWorld
42%
24%
24%
4%
4%
1% 1%
Jumia
Takealot
Souq
Konga
Bidorbuy
Zando
Other
Africa –
Market Fragmentation (Low)
North America –
Market Fragmentation (High)
34.70%
4.80%
5.60%
3.30%
11%
9.80%
30.59%
Square
NCR
Heartland
Verifone
LSPD
Shopify
Other (100+ Companies)
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Comparison of Developed Markets & Africa
Lightspeed’s most attractive expansion opportunity
Sources: Statista, FinancesOnline, Conclusion
▪
Regulations
: Lightspeed can benefit from the smoother African regulations with regards to privacy by
creating analytics to predict consumer behavior for suppliers and stores more accurately.
▪
Maturity
: Lightspeed can benefit from the large pool of stores and eCommerce platform who
don’t
use cloud-
based POS systems and their full-integrated platform because it is a completely new technology in Africa. On
the other hand, most North American companies are already using similar systems. It would be hard for
Lightspeed to grow by capturing clients from the competition, because consumers face a high switching cost.
Hence, the North American growth will mainly come from the 8% of corporations who still need modern POS
systems, which is limited compared to
Africa’s
potential.
▪
eCommerce
: The growth of eCommerce in Africa is more than 3.5x faster than
America’s
. It is an opportunity
for lightspeed to implement Lightspeed Pay in a fast-growing environment. It would also allow Lightspeed to
be the first-mover in the market. Hence, consumers will get used to the Lightspeed system and will stick with
them since switching to another platform would be costly and decrease the integration of all services
combined. Also, the positive network effects will make consumers stick to Lightspeed more, as stores will ask
for suppliers to use Lightspeed too to integrate their supply management systems in real-time.
▪
Market Fragmentation
: Lightspeed on its own has a 5x greater market capitalization than all the
industry’s
African players combined. Hence, Lightspeed can compete on a larger scale with more resources and
dominate the market with ease and capture all its growth. Lightspeed could even opt for an acquisition in the
African market to penetrate it faster and ensure a first-mover advantage.
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How to Penetrate the African Market
Adapting the offering to key differences in the African market
African Consumers have a very limited access to credit cards
and use cash a main payment method. To benefit from the growth of eCommerce in Africa and be convenient for the 60% of consumers who use cash, we recommend a new service: Lightspeed Cash, an extension of Lightspeed Pay
How it Works
Consumers
–
Choose their preferred products with an eCommerce partnered with Lightspeed
Lightspeed
processes
the order and compiles the data
for future consumer behavior analysis
Warehouse
–
Receives the order and prepares its shipping
Lightspeed
provides
real-time data
to shipping company and suppliers about the Warehouse inventory
First Mile
–
The transportation company takes the product to a local last mile shipping company partnered with Lightspeed Pay
Last Mile
–
The delivery man takes the package to the customer’s house and takes a cash payment at the place of delivery.
Lightspeed
processes
the order and compiles the data
for future consumer behavior analysis
Lightspeed
Communicates invoice information to delivery man
Lightspeed
stores data about delivery time for further analysis
Cash is collected and taken back to the shipping company partnered with Lightspeed Pay to be cashed in by Lightspeed Pay and electronically transferred to the seller
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61
Lightspeed Shipment Model Overview
Goal
Design
Value added
Resources needed
Benefits
As Marie-Josee Lamothe, Director of
Lightspeed’s
board mentioned during the call team #101 had with
her, the next step for LSPD is to become a fully integrated one-stop shop for its partners. Doing so
would allow LSPD to achieve higher customer stickiness and therefore be more resilient in an industry
where competition is ever-increasing.
The shipment model sees LSPD take care of the B2B or B2C shipments through warehouses LSPD
could have across its main geographies of business.
LSPD’s
partners would send their inventory to be
shipped out to the nearest Lightspeed shipment warehouse after which LSPD would take care of getting
the product to the end consumer and handling other components of the logistics (freight errors, product
returns etc.).
Given
LSPD’s
strenuous position within the tactical action heavy industry, the value of this initiative
would be mostly captured by the SMBs themselves (the customers): small and medium businesses
often times try to outsource the delivery and logistics portion of their business to focus on core
operations as they mostly are targeting sales growth.
LSPD’s
shipment model would allow them to
eliminate the burden of handling logistics all the while having LSPD maneuvering all non-core parts of
their business. The value-added therefore stems from the added convenience businesses would have.
To tackle such a project, LSPD would need. To purchase warehouses at strategic locations where there
is the most partner traffic. LSPD would then hire staff and partner with shipping companies to get the
products to the end consumer.
LSPD would effectively use core competencies to achieve a competitive advantage as its new model
would create superior value for customers through the integrated offering. Although that competitive
advantage may be short lived given the fast-cycle market, the significant amount of capital required to
duplicate the model would make it harder to imitate.
Recommendation #2
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Lightspeed Shipment Model Overview: Mapping
Consumers
–
Choose their preferred products with an eCommerce partnered with Lightspeed
Lightspeed
Lightspeed –
Receives the order, stores the data, gets the goods from the commerce
1
2
3
SMBs –
Sends the goods to the closest LSPD warehouse in a timely fashion
4
Warehouse –
Receives the goods, stores them and prepares the shipment
5
Dispatcher –
Takes the shipments to a shipping company. Ships in bulk or in low volumes depending on consumer preferences
6
Shipping company –
receives the package and ships it across the world directly to the consumer
7
Worldwide
consumers receive goods from SMBs that would, without the help of LSPD,
only ship locally.
Commerce get
access to a larger audience and market and consumers get to consume products that would not have been available to them.
LSPD therefore is a significant actor in the globalization of e-commerce
Recommendation #2
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Lightspeed Shipment Model Overview: Shopify Case Study
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian multinational e-commerce company headquartered in Ottawa, Ontario. It is also the name of its
proprietary e-commerce platform for online stores and retail point-of-sale systems.
The Shopify platform offers online
retailers a suite of services including payments, marketing, shipping and customer engagement tools.
In an effort to build an end-to-end solution for its partners, Shopify created the
“Shopify
Fulfillment
Network”
. Under the model, Shopify
permanently holds some of its customers inventory for future shipments and stores them in automated warehouses that send the
products to customers once ordered
Value-added
Accuracy
Robotic support ensured 99.5% order accuracy
Flexibility
Service for businesses that ship 3 orders a day
Optimization
better routing and carbon emission
Management
Centralized inventory management by tech
How they made it possible
Scalable
Responsible
Control
Pricing
Shopify achieved a successful model by balancing making the service it provides fulsome and automated with charging a price that makes sense for each of their partners. See below for a more detailed pricing/quote computation. Storage
Fulfillment rates
Special projects
$$$ –
Calculated daily based on the space the inventory occupies in the warehouse
$$ –
Cost of fulfilling each order, using the most affordable shipping rates
$ –
Cost of projects that go beyond normal tasks Quote ($)
+
+
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Lightspeed Shipment Model Overview: Shopify Case Study
Storage
$$$ –
Calculated daily based on the space the inventory occupies in the warehouse
+
+
Changing the storage format of Shopify’s Fulfillment Network is the only way to reach a feasible price point for the SMBs that have less inventory and less capital available
compared to Shopify’s target companies x
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LightMarket Pace
Recommendation #3
Potential results
The LightMarket Pace is a marketplace that connects consumers with the small & medium
businesses LSPD partners with. Through a proprietary algorithm, LSPD monitors and predicts
consumers’
shopping patterns to propose a product catalogue and locations to shop via phone
pop-ups according to their geolocation.
Powered by
John has been shopping for running shoes over the past week
Shoe shop
LSPD Partner
Once he gets closer to the shop, John gets a pop-up telling him he’s approaching a shoe shop and showing him some of the deals they have
John found the pair of shoes he was looking for and the shoe shop got a new customer!
Source of the problem
SMBs cannot afford to advertise their products heavily until they reach a certain top line and profitability. However, advertising helps them reach financial prosperity; they are therefore stuck in a vicious circle where they cannot afford to advertise without using advertising
The app
Brings unmatched value to businesses as it allows them to gain exposure and get advertised at no additional cost, which would
precipitate revenue growth and profitability (given the no downside risk nature of the app)
What’s in it for LSPD?
Lightspeed would effectively create a platform with centralized consumer data which would allow it to be on the forefront of data analysis and general
environment predictions and forecasts, positioning it to be poised for growth going forward. The data could be used to provide advice to partners with regards to
their inventory management, product offering, and strategic positioning, which would again be a value generator.
1
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
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References
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References
JP Morgan
. “Lightspeed POS Initiating Coverage." Thomson Reuters, 2 April 2019.
CIBC Capital Markets
. “Lightspeed POS Initiating Coverage." Thomson Reuters, 1 April 2019.
Shopify. “Harness the Power of Our Technology.” Shopify, https://www.shopify.com/fulfillment/features#order-
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.
RBC. “By the Numbers: COVID's Impact on Canadian Consumer Spending.” RBC Direct Investing, 4 August 2021.
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spending/kp1bua6c
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Small Business Trends. “91% of Customers Prefer Small Businesses When Convenient.” Small Business Trends, 15 October 2019. https://smallbiztrends.com/2019/10/what-customers-want-in-2019.html
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The Canadian Press. “Lightspeed POS shareholders will vote on name change in August”. The Globe and Mail, 30 June 2021. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/technology/article-lightspeed-pos-inc-shareholders-will-vote-on-name-
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Investment Research Report. “Lightspeed Commerce, Inc.”. Spruce Point Capital Management, 29 September 2021. https://www.sprucepointcap.com/lightspeed-commerce-inc/
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