(Mar 22) 3PX3 Final Project Module
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ENGINEER 3PX3 Integrated Engineering Design Project 3 Final Project - Winter Semester, 2022-2023 High-speed rail
is largely considered a major economic growth stimulus and a sustainable response to population growth, increased travel demand, and transport capacity constraints [1]. While prevalent in Europe and Asia, North American rail infrastructure is notably lacking, due in part to the vast distances between major cities. North America is especially lacking in high-speed rail infrastructure (classified as new railway that can support maximum speeds over 250 kph, or existing railway upgraded to support maximum speeds over 200 kph) compared to other continents [2]. The currently operational Acela rail in the United States, the under-construction California High-Speed Rail
, and a planned high-speed rail in Mexico mark the first three high-
speed rails on this continent. This leaves Canada as the only G7 country without an active high-
speed railway, despite its economic and social well-being [3]. In recent years, the possibility of implementing high-speed rail in Canada has gained public support, with a growing recognition of the potential economic, social, and environmental benefits such infrastructure could provide. In the past twenty years, several route options for high-speed rail have been explored or suggested, including Edmonton-Calgary, Windsor-Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo-Toronto, Ottawa-Montreal, Montreal-Boston, and Montreal-New York City. The feasibility studies undertaken means that some pricing information and benefit generation may be published and available online for your reference [4]. A proposed route by Alstom; TGV –
HFR map presented in November 2022 [5].
Recently, two councillors in Montreal, Craig Sauve and Serge Sasseville, have tabled a motion to ask Prime Minister Trudeau to support a high-frequency rail project between Toronto and Montreal [6], [7]
. Sasseville has referred to this project as, “the most significant transport infrastructure in Canada [8]
.” The benefits of implementing high
-speed rail are obvious, yet tasking to quantify: faster travel times, increased population mobility, reduced highway and city street congestion, tourism and job stimulus, environmental benefits, and more [9], [10], [11], [12]. As our governments currently are doing, you are tasked to explore the feasibility of high-
speed rail along the corridor between Ontario and Quebec. Suppose you are a private consulting firm hired by the Canadian Federal Government (your client) to assess the economic feasibility of a high-speed rail project along this corridor. By collaborating in multidisciplinary groups of your peers, you will have the chance in this Final Project to explore the design and optimization of various rail system components, the economic viability and sustainability of high-speed rail, and incorporate course concepts such as time value of money, net value analysis, sensitivity analysis, and project management tools. The Final Project will have weekly deliverables to ensure schedule adherence. It is a requirement that these deadlines are consistently met. These deliverables should be draft submissions showing your effort on the associated project phase. They will each be graded as 0, 1, or 2 out of 2 based on the shown effort. Brief TA feedback will be provided that can be implemented into the final project deliverables. There is a listed expectation in the Course Syllabus that one hour of asynchronous design work will be completed before Design Studios each week. Please use this time to familiarize yourself with the expectations ahead, so that during Design Studio you can immediately get to work with your team members.
References [1] “Benefits of High
-
Speed Rail for the United States,” American Public Transportation Association
, 17-Mar-2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.apta.com/research-technical-
resources/high-speed-passenger-rail/benefits-of-high-speed-rail-for-the-united-states/. [2] R. Nunno, “High speed rail development worldwide,” EESI
, 19-Jul-2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-high-speed-rail-development-
worldwide. [3
] M. Paulsen, “Off the rails,” The Walrus
, 15-Jun-2020. [Online]. Available: https://thewalrus.ca/off-the-rails/. [4] “All Ontario - Quebec High Speed Rail Studies,” High Speed Rail Canada
, 25-Jan-2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.highspeedrailcanada.com/p/all-canadian-hsr-studies.html. [5] “Alstom TGV Presentation and Map
s for Ontario - Quebec Corridor,” High Speed Rail Canada
, 25-Jan-2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.highspeedrailcanada.com/2023/01/Alstom-TGV-Ontario-Quebec.html. [6] “Government of Canada launches process to identify and qualify up to three top cand
idates to build high frequency rail between Québec and Toronto,” Transport Canada
, 24-Feb-2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-
canada/news/2023/02/government-of-canada-launches-process-to-identify-and-qualify-up-
to-three-top-candidates-to-build-high-frequency-rail-between-quebec-and-toronto.html. [7] K. DeClerq, “High
-speed train between Toronto and Montreal one step closer to becoming reality,” Toronto
, 17-Feb-2023. [Online]. Available: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/could-a-
high-speed-train-between-toronto-and-montreal-become-a-reality-1.6278087. [8] “Toronto could get a high
-
speed train to Montreal & Here's What To Know,” Curiocity
, 17-
Feb-2023. [Online]. Available: https://curiocity.com/toronto-montreal-high-speed-rail/. [9] B. Lo
renz, “High
-
speed rail benefits small towns and large cities,” The Urbanist
, 31-Jul-
2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/07/30/high-speed-rail-
benefits-small-towns-and-large-cities/. [10] A. Kunz, “10 reasons america needs high
-
speed rail,” Global Railway Review
, 27-Jan-2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/article/69858/10-reasons-
america-needs-high-speed-rail/. [11]
“High speed rail: Benefits, costs, and challenges,” EESI
, 04-May-2010. [Online]. Available: https://www.eesi.org/briefings/view/high-speed-rail-benefits-costs-and-challenges.
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[12] A. Henderson, “Public Transit and the Benefits of High
-
Speed Rail,” Smart Cities Dive
. [Online]. Available: https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/benefits-high-speed-
rail/151136/. [Accessed: 02-Mar-2023].
Phase 1: Preliminary Analysis Draft Due: Night of Week 7 Design Studio In this phase, you will take a first look at the demand for a high-speed rail project, and the potential benefits of a system between Ontario and Quebec. You will conduct market research by determining the stakeholders and using second-hand sources to determine the potential demand for the rail system. This will require first determining the start and stop locations of the rail project, so that demand can be accurately assessed. A.
Create a Gantt chart in Microsoft Project that summarizes and illustrates the expectations for your newly-named private firm. (You may choose a creative name for your firm, or stick with your given project team number.) This Gantt chart will be used to determine a schedule for the Final Project immediately, and you should make every attempt to stick to the proposed timeline you set. B.
Write a brief “report” (between 200 –
300 words in length) on the market research assessing project demand. This should include information on potential ridership, demand, and market potential for the high-speed rail system between your start and stop locations. C.
Determine the stakeholders of this proposed project (determine who is impacted –
positively or negatively –
by the project. D.
Define the problem. Demonstrate understanding of the client and the context of the scenario at hand. Note informative background information about the scenario. Determine how you can evaluate if your project is successful (i.e. Lay out a basic net value function (without any conversion factors) and constraints. “
We will be successful if we maximize/minimize X
1
, X
2
while staying within the constraints of Y
1
, Y
2
, etc.
”
) E.
State any initial assumptions, constraints, objectives, and goals of the project that you can determine. F.
Create a risk matrix that identifies and assesses potential risks that could impact the success of the overall project. G.
Propose a potential solution to the scenario that has numerous design aspects that you can later work to optimize. Determine which design aspects will be considered by each group member in later phases. You are welcome to change your mind later, but submit an initial proposal here. Phase 2: Route Planning Draft Due: Night of Week 8 Design Studio Here, you will work to design a route for the high-speed rail system between Ontario and Quebec. Consider factors such as topology, geology, population density, and existing infrastructure to determine a logical route. This phase should also incorporate the proposal of station locations.
H.
Propose a route between Ontario and Quebec. Create a graphic to illustrate this proposed route. Label the locations of all proposed stations. I.
Justify the decisions behind your stop locations and route design. If necessary, discuss any required infrastructure improvements needed to make your route feasible. Phase 3: Initial Detailed Net Value Draft Due: Night of Week 8 Design Studio After determining the framework of the high-speed rail line, conduct an economic analysis of the proposal thus far. At this stage, the net value function may contain several factors not yet converted into monetary values. It is most important to produce an exhaustive list of terms for the net value function, many of which can be determined in terms of dollar values later. J.
Create an exhaustive net value function, and replace terms with monetary conversions where possible at this stage. K.
Justify the presence of the terms in your net value function. Justify the omission of terms that were considered but ultimately not implemented. Phase 4: Technical Design Draft Due: Night of Week 9 Design Studio In this phase, you will individually conduct technical analysis on one aspect of the high-speed rail system design. You will determine how the technical work done on this aspect affects the benefits and/or costs of your net value equation. L.
Refer back to your proposed design aspect submitted with Phase 1. If you have changed your mind, briefly justify this swap. Determine how this individual system aspect affects the overall greater net value function by completing a technical analysis of your chosen system aspect. This may conclude with the addition of new terms to your net value function, or at least a better evaluation of the monetary values of the benefits and costs terms in your net value function. There is no requirement to select any of the below options, nor is it an exhaustive list, but you should be selecting a design aspect with a scope you can feasibly design. You may choose to consider these suggestions as “categories” and look at something more specific within that category. It is entirely up to you, but you must assess a different system component than everyone else in your team. Possible Suggestions: 1.
Railbed design (materials, thickness) 2.
Braking control systems 3.
Power supply and distribution systems (transformers, switchgear, protection devices) 4.
Signaling and communication systems
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5.
Schedule design, frequency design 6.
Train speed recommendations at specific locations 7.
Maximum safe speed on curves 8.
Drainage systems for the railway tracks 9.
Train body aerodynamic assessment 10.
Software or hardware for control and management of railway system 11.
Embedded systems for on-board control systems and computers 12.
Networking and communication systems and interfaces for the railway system 13.
Material selection for train body, suspension, or powertrain components 14.
Performance and safety analysis of chassis, suspension, drivetrain components 15.
Information systems design (real-time data transmission to users, user interface design) 16.
Train propulsion system design Phase 5: Environmental Analysis Draft Due: Night of Week 9 Design Studio This phase involves an investigation of the environmental impacts, benefits, and costs of the project. M.
Identify environmental regulatory requirements associated with constructing and operating passenger rail in Ontario and Quebec. N.
Identify potential impacts on wildlife and local ecosystems from construction, maintenance, and usage of high-speed rail along the proposed route. O.
Identify potential environmental benefits from the adoption of high-speed rail, such as lowered highway congestion or air pollution, if applicable. P.
Provide reasonable monetary values for identified items in M, N, and O. Update your net value function with any new terms and values obtained from this project phase and provide an updated net value. Phase 6: Thorough Economic Analysis Draft Due: Night of The Business Day After Week 10 Design Studio After developing your technical design aspects and determining your net value function, in-depth cost estimates are needed to detail the net value function. Q.
Develop a detailed work breakdown structure and cost estimate for the proposed high-
speed rail project. This will involve identifying all the major tasks required to complete the project and determining the resources (such as labour, materials, equipment, etc.) to complete each task. You will need to consider time value of money, expected inflation rates, and other economic factors that may impact the cost of the project over time. Breakdown your cost estimate into categories including capital expenditures, operational expenses, and maintenance costs. Provide all cash inflows and outflows as both nominal
values and as present values. Where possible, provide suggestions on how to improve the financial performance of the project. R.
If your client sets a real MARR of 15%, does your proposal meet this constraint? Evaluate the rate of return over a timeline from today until 20 years after the high-speed rail is expected to become operational. (So, this may be [today] -> [2 years of route planning/technical design/acquiring permits/land/equipment, etc.] -> [5 years of construction] -> [20 years of operation] = 27 years from today, for example) S.
Determine the key project variables, such as ridership projections, construction costs, interest rates, etc., and determine the impact of these variables on the financial viability of the project. Provide reasonable assumptions as to how significantly the values of these variables may change. Where possible, provide suggestions on how to mitigate risks associated with changes in these key project variables. Briefly discuss how changes in key assumptions or inputs will affect the project’s profitability.
T.
Update your net value function with any new terms and values obtained from this project phase and provide an updated net value. Phase 7: Optimization Draft Due: Night of The Business Day After Week 10 Design Studio Make every attempt to complete the problem formulation (constraint determinations) on your most up-to-
date NVF before
the Week 10 tutorial (as part of your asynchronous work time).
This will allow us to provide guidance on creating a good linear program for your NVF model during tutorial. In this phase, you'll complete a linear optimization on the entire net value function. This follows the steps outlined in lectures: U.
Carefully identify which decision variables you have in your NVF, and summarize constraints in appropriate form to solve with linear programming. Set independent variables you don’t contr
ol to reasonable values so the model is deterministic and NV is dependent only on decision variables. If your NVF is nonlinear in the decision variables, constrain enough of these variables at reasonable values as-needed to make the NVF and your constraints linear (and explain your choice). V.
Complete a linear optimization (using Excel, as shown in class for Topic 9) to identify the best set of decision variable values possible to maximize your NVF (with the assumptions made in step U). Discuss your results and information presented by Excel's "Sensitivity" output report, identifying sensitivity of your NV to your decision variables and constraints. Afterwards, you should explore the following further extensions to improve and demonstrate your mastery of the course content (not for week 10, but for your final version of the report)
: W.
Insert the optimal decision variable values from your linear optimization model into the full, nonlinear NVF (i.e., un-fixing the decision variables you fixed in step U). Complete a full deterministic sensitivity analysis (e.g. spider plot, tornado chart etc.) on the nonlinear NVF in an attempt to approach an even more optimal value. X.
Building off the risk matrix started in earlier phases (or an updated version of it), create a plan to deal with the three most serious risks identified, and estimate the cost of implementing these risk management plans.
Y.
Around the optimum, build in (determine) uncertainty for parameters you have no control over, and determine the 95% confidence interval on net value for the set of inputs that created the optimum (i.e., replace the independent variables you don’t control that you set to constants in step U with functions that take random samples from appropriate statistical distributions instead so you have a stochastic model for NVF, and use a Monte Carlo simulation to find the confidence interval on resulting NVF) Z.
For this stochastic model of the full nonlinear NVF (i.e., with uncertainties from the previous step), complete a new sensitivity analysis for some key decision variable values by adjusting them (by small amounts) and performing new Monte Carlo simulations (present your results with another spider plot, tornado plot, or other visualization tool.) Discuss whether the results of this step suggest modifications to decision variable values for an even better expected outcome (or an improved 95% confidence interval in some way; e.g., better expected value and/or lower risk) (but you don't need to actually pursue further changes after this step). Main Deliverable: Final Report and Video Deadline: April 6
th
, 11:59 pm. Complete an all-encompassing report that discusses all phases of the Final Project, and the technical work done by your team, similar to the structure used in the Case Study reports. Record a video (between 5 –
10 minutes) that communicates the major details of the report to the client. AA.
Create a final report that from the perspective of an analytic report detailing the work and analysis your team has done, and justification for why the solution you have developed is the best solution (and generates the greatest net value). The full scope of your technical analysis should be present and explained within the report –
and deviations from previously submitted drafts should be explained. Include your Excel files detailing your simulation and optimization model work. BB.
Record and upload a five-to-ten-minute presentation detailing the problem, proposed solution, and the technical, economic, and analytical work that was done to prove that from a net value perspective, you are presenting the “best” solution. The presentation should be understandable as a standalone piece of work, covering the same main points as your final report, but not necessarily explained to the same level of detail.
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