Assignment Follow Up Dilpreet Singh
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427
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Industrial Engineering
Date
Feb 20, 2024
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Assignment Follow-Up
Dilpreet Singh
1)
Open the document with the answers provided by Professor Hillmer and read through his answers. Compare the answers that Professor Hillmer came up with for each problem to the answers you obtained.
1.
A) For the first question, my answer was the data exhibits seasonality. It would be useful to try to discover the cause of this seasonally. The last point in the graph is a special cause because it is much higher than any other values for June. It would be a good idea to find out what is different about June compared to the other months of June in the time frame. Whereas professor Hilmer’s answer mentioned This plot exhibits seasonality, the sales for the month of October are higher than the other months each year. The last month is a particularly large value since this is not an October.
B) I answered - The seasonality is easier to identify from the plot with the symbols because the month labeled "j" is always higher than the other months. It is also easier to see that the last month labeled "f" is much higher than the other "f" months. Professor Hilmer answered - The seasonality is easier to identify from the plot with the symbols because the month labeled “j” is always higher than the other months. It is also easier to see that the last month labeled “f” is much higher than the other “f” months.
2 ) I answered - i) There is a downward trend beginning around time period 25. This is a special cause.
ii) The plot suggests that the sales declined in the 20 weeks after the contest, thus it looks like the
contest was not effective.
The sales during the first 20 weeks are nearly constant around 425,000. The sales for weeks 21, 22, and 23 may have increased slightly; however, after these weeks the sales seem to decline until around week 45. The sales appear to level off for the last 5 weeks. From the data in this plot, the contest did not seem to be effective in reducing the decline in news stand sales.
Professor Hilmer answerd - The sales during the first 20 weeks is nearly constant around 425,000. The sales for weeks 21, 22, and 23 may have increased slightly; however after these weeks the sales seems to decline until around week 45. The sales appear to level off for the last 5
weeks. From the data in this plot, the contest did not seem to be effective in reducing the decline in news stand sales.
3 ) a) There is a special cause at time 21. Find out what is different about the conditions at time 21 compared to the other times. The appropriate response to a special cause is to find out what occurred at the time the special cause was signaled. In this case, this can be done by comparing the conditions at time 21 to the conditions before and after that time and note what is different.
Professor Hilmer - The value at time 21 is quite a bit larger than the other observations, and is evidence of a special cause
at this time.
B ) I answered - The hospital does not do a good job of meeting the goal.
Since the goal is 720 minutes and there are quite a number of instances in which the time waiting
is longer than 720 minutes.
Professor Hilmer - There are quite a few times in which the waiting time is larger than the goal of 720 minutes, thus it is unlikely that this goal can be met all the time.
4) A) I answered - The upward trend is a special cause. The seasonal pattern is a special cause. The most distinctive feature of this plot is the seasonality, the sales for December each year are higher than the other months and the sales for January and February each year are lower than the other months. The seasonality is evidence of a special cause.
Professor Hilmer - The most distinctive feature of this plot is the seasonality, the sales for December each year are higher
than the other months and the sales for January and February each year are lower than the other
months. The seasonality is evidence of a special cause.
B) I answered - A good forecast would be about 160 because this takes into account the trend in the data and the fact that December is always high. If it was required to forecast the value for the next December, two factors should be taken into consideration - there is an increasing trend in the data so the value for the next year should be slightly higher than the value for the current year
and the value for every December is higher than the other months.
Professor Hilmer - If it was required to forecast the value for the next December, two factors should be taken into consideration – there is an increasing trend in the data so the value for the next year should be slightly higher than the value for the current year and the value for every December is higher than the other months.
5) I answered - There is a special cause at time 19. Management should make a list of the differences between this project and the other 50 projects to find out what is different about this project.
Professor Hilmer - There is one extremely large error. Other than the one large error, the errors tend to vary around zero.
6 ) A) I answered - The wait time improved from about time 27 to time 49. There is a special cause because of the downward shift in the data. shift. Thus, the wait seconds per call is not stable over this time period. If the goal is 16 seconds of per call, this plot shows that the majority of the calls do not meet this target.
Professor Hilmer - The wait time per call of the operation shows a level shift down around time 26 and an upward level shift around time 49 to the value it was before the downward shift. Thus, the wait seconds per call is not stable over this time period. If the goal is 16 seconds of per call, this plot shows that the majority of the calls do not meet this target.
B) I answered - A rough comparison of the two-time series plots suggests that one of the reasons that the wait seconds per call was reduced in the middle of the time was that the number of staff during that time was increased. When the staffing level was increased, the amount of waiting time per call was decreased to a level that was closer to the target value of 16 seconds. These two
plots suggest that one way to meet the goal of 16 seconds of wait time or less would be to increase the number of staff taking call in the dispatch operation.
Professor Hilmer - A rough comparison of the two-time series plots suggests that one of the reasons that the wait seconds per call was reduced in the middle of the time was that the number of staff during that time was increased. When the staffing level was increased, the amount of waiting time per call was decreased to a level that was closer to the target value of 16 seconds. These two plots suggest that one way to meet the goal of 16 seconds of wait time or less would be to increase the number of staff taking call in the dispatch operation.
2)
List the instances where your answers were different from Professor Hillmer’s answers. For each instance where you identified a difference which of the two approaches do you believe is a better answer to the question asked? Why?
Question 3 A) was a little different as compared to Professor Hilmers answer but it had the same meaning. Question 5 was different, I answered There is a special cause at time 19. Management should make a list of the differences between this project and the other 50 projects to find out what is different about this project, and Professor Hilmer answer was - There is one extremely large error. Other than the one large error, the errors tend to vary around zero.
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3) Describe what you have learned, if anything, by comparing your answers to Professor Hillmer’s answers.
I learned that I need to give a more meaningful and good explanation to my answers rather than giving a small direct answer.