Assignment - Cold War and Beyond

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1 Assignment: Cold War and Beyond Muhammad Bello Z. Ahmed History of the World since the fifteenth century, 12, University- CHY4U f1+ Ms. Samantha Gowanlock June 24 th , 2023

2 The Cold War, which spanned from 1947 to 1991, was a period characterized by intense geopolitical tensions, nuclear brinkmanship, proxy wars, and ideological conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. It has prompted an ongoing debate on whether the world was a safer place during the Cold War than it is today. 1 Assessing the level of safety requires an examination of the conflicts and challenges faced in both eras. From my understanding, I contend that the world was relatively safer during the Cold War due to the presence of stable power structures, nuclear deterrence, and clear ideological boundaries. The bipolar structure of the Cold War, with the two superpowers at the helm, created a sense of stability and predictability in international relations. Although tensions were high and proxy wars erupted in regions such as Korea and Vietnam, the conflict was largely contained within these spheres, minimizing the risk of global escalation. The existence of clear power structures and the fear of direct confrontation between the superpowers acted as a deterrent to all-out war, thereby maintaining a delicate balance. 2 The concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), underpinned by the threat of nuclear weapons, further bolstered this balance by establishing a sense of equilibrium. The fear of catastrophic consequences limited the inclination of the superpowers to engage in direct conflict. In contrast, the present global landscape is characterized by a more fragmented and multipolar world. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the rise of new powers have reshaped global dynamics, leading to increased complexity and unpredictability in international relations. Conflicts and security threats span a wide range, from traditional interstate conflicts to the rise of non-state actors and transnational terrorism. The 1 The Editors of Encyclopedia BrItannica, “Cold War,” Britannica, retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War . 2 Mohd Noor Maht Yazid, “The Cold War, Bipolarity Structure and the Power Vacuum in the East and South East Asia after 1945,” JGP, retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://jgpcnet.com/journals/jgpc/Vol_2_No_1_June_2014/6.pdf .

3 absence of a clear bipolar structure and the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional countries introduce new risks and challenges to global security. Without a stable power structure, maintaining stability and predictability becomes more challenging, as competing interests and ideologies intertwine and intersect. 3 The absence of clear ideological boundaries, which were prominent during the Cold War between the capitalist and communist blocs, has led to a blurring of lines in the present era. The rise of hybrid warfare, employing a combination of military, economic, and cyber means, complicates the identification of adversaries and their intentions. The complexity of conflicts, coupled with the lack of a clear ideological divide, makes it difficult to navigate the global security landscape and address emerging threats effectively. 4 While the Cold War era was marked by intense tensions and proxy conflicts, it provided a certain level of stability and predictability that contributed to a relatively safer world compared to the present. The bipolar power structure, the fear of nuclear annihilation, and clear ideological boundaries played significant roles in maintaining this stability. In contrast, the present era is characterized by a more fragmented and multipolar world, with diverse and diffuse conflicts that pose significant challenges to global security. The absence of a clear power structure and the complexity of conflicts make the world less safe and more unpredictable. The bipolar structure of the Cold War, with the United States and the Soviet Union as the two superpowers, created a sense of stability and predictability in international relations. The division of the world into two distinct power blocs provided a framework for countries to align themselves with one of the superpowers, ensuring a certain level of order and control. This stable 3 The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica, “Mutually Assured Destruction,” Encyclopedia Britannica, retrieved June 25, 2023, from https://www.britannica.com/topic/state-sovereign-political-entity/Hegel . 4 Gregory F. Treverton, et al, “Addressing Hybrid Threats,” HYBRIDCOE, retrieved June 25, 2023, from https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Treverton-AddressingHybridThreats.pdf .

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4 power structure reduced the likelihood of major conflicts escalating into global catastrophes. Countries were motivated to maintain alliances and partnerships with either the United States or the Soviet Union to gain protection and support, allowing for a clear understanding of each nation's role and position within the global order. 5 The presence of such power structures helped prevent the outbreak of large-scale conflicts by establishing a balance of power between the superpowers. Each side understood the consequences of engaging in direct conflict, as it could potentially lead to a devastating nuclear war. This understanding acted as a deterrent and contributed to a relatively safer world. Moreover, the stability provided by the bipolar power structure helped contain conflicts within specific regions, such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War, which were fought between the United States and the Soviet Union indirectly through their respective allies. 6 These conflicts, while devastating for the countries involved, remained limited in scope and did not escalate into direct confrontations between the superpowers. The clear division of influence and control between the two blocs ensured that conflicts remained localized, reducing the risk of broader global turmoil. The stable power structures of the Cold War era also facilitated diplomatic negotiations and crisis management, as the superpowers had established channels of communication and engaged in efforts to prevent the escalation of tensions. The existence of stable power structures allowed for the implementation of diplomatic solutions, as demonstrated by the resolution of the Cuban Missile 5 Vidya Nadkarnii, “ Bipolarism and Its End, From the Cold War to the Post-Cold War World,” Oxford Research Encyclopedias, retrieved June 27 from https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.000 1/acrefore-9780190846626-e-325 . 6 Mueller, John. “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World.” International Security 13, no. 2 (1988): 55–79. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538971 .

5 Crisis through negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union. 7 The presence of stable power structures during the Cold War era fostered a sense of stability, predictability, and balance, ultimately contributing to a safer global environment. The world today is characterized by fragmentation and unpredictability, in stark contrast to the stability and predictability of the Cold War era. The breakup of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new powers have led to a more complex global landscape. The absence of a clear power structure and the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional countries have introduced new risks and challenges to global security. During the Cold War, the world was divided into two main power blocs, led by the United States and the Soviet Union, which provided a sense of stability and predictability. However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the global power balance has shifted, with new powers such as China, regional players like Iran and North Korea, challenging the traditional power structure. This multipolar world makes it increasingly difficult to maintain stability as diverse interests and ideologies intersect. Furthermore, the spread of nuclear weapons to more countries has complicated the global security landscape. In the past, only the United States and the Soviet Union possessed nuclear capabilities, and the fear of mutual destruction acted as a deterrent to all-out war. However, the proliferation of nuclear weapons has increased the risk of nuclear conflict, as the absence of a clear power structure raises the possibility of misunderstandings and miscalculations. 8 Additionally, conflicts today are more multifaceted and diverse, involving not only traditional interstate disputes but also non- state actors and transnational terrorism. Hybrid warfare, blending military, economic, and cyber 7 “International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War,” National Academies Press, retrieved June 27, 2023, from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/9897/chapter/2 . 8 “The Cold War Era,” NCERT, retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://ncert.nic.in/ncerts/l/leps101.pdf .

6 tactics, blurs the boundaries between conventional and unconventional warfare, further complicating the identification of adversaries and their intentions. The absence of clear ideological boundaries that existed during the Cold War adds another layer of complexity to global security. 9 The world today is marked by fragmentation, unpredictability, and new risks compared to the stability and predictability of the Cold War era. The breakup of the Soviet Union, the rise of new powers, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons have introduced significant challenges to global security. The absence of a clear power structure and the complexity of conflicts make the world a less safe and more uncertain place. One of the key arguments supporting the notion that the world was relatively safer during the Cold War compared to the present era is the absence of clear ideological boundaries in today's global landscape. In the Cold War era, conflicts were primarily driven by the competition between the two superpowers, with proxy wars fought in various regions. The conflicts were largely influenced by the overarching ideological struggle between capitalism and communism. However, in today's world, conflicts are more diverse and involve a multitude of actors with varying motivations and interests. Non-state actors, such as terrorist organizations, operate outside the traditional boundaries of nation-states, making it difficult to attribute actions to specific entities. Additionally, the use of hybrid warfare tactics, which combine military, economic, and cyber means, further complicates the identification and understanding of adversaries' intentions. The lack of a clear ideological divide and the complexity of conflicts pose significant challenges in navigating the global security landscape and effectively addressing 9 “Hybrid Warfare – New Threats, Complexity, and ‘Trust’ as the Antidote,” NATO Review, retrieved June 28 2023, from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2021/11/30/hybrid-warfare-new-threats-complexity-and-trust-as-the- antidote/index.html .

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7 emerging threats. The absence of a dominant power structure and the multipolar nature of the world today result in a more fragmented and unpredictable international order. With multiple world powers competing for influence, conflicting interests and shifting alliances create a tense environment where the dynamics of power and influence are constantly evolving and changing. 10 This unpredictability makes it hard to establish stable relationships and mechanisms for resolving conflicts. Also, the absence of clear ideological boundaries makes it more difficult to build coalitions and alliances based on shared values and common goals, which can hinder the collective response to global security challenges. These factors make it difficult to navigate the global security landscape and address emerging threats effectively. In contrast, the Cold War era provided a certain level of stability and predictability due to the clear bipolar power structure and the presence of ideological boundaries. While conflicts and tensions were present during the Cold War, the existence of these structures acted as a deterrent and provided a framework for managing global affairs. The Cold War era was marked by stability and predictability, despite its intense geopolitical tensions and proxy conflicts. The presence of a bipolar power structure, with the United States and the Soviet Union at the helm, created a sense of order in international relations. The fear of direct confrontation and nuclear annihilation acted as a powerful deterrent to major conflicts escalating into global catastrophes. Also, the clear ideological boundaries between the capitalist and communist blocs helped contain conflicts within specific spheres and minimize the risk of broader global turmoil. In contrast, the present era is characterized by a more fragmented and multipolar world, with diverse conflicts and security threats that pose significant challenges to 10 “The Cold War Era,” NCERT, retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://ncert.nic.in/ncerts/l/leps101.pdf .

8 global security. The absence of a stable power structure, the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional countries, and the blurring of ideological boundaries contribute to a less safe and more unpredictable global environment.

9 References The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica. “Cold War.” Britannica. Retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War . Mohd Noor Maht Yazid. “The Cold War, Bipolarity Structure and the Power Vacuum in the East and South East Asia after 1945.” JGP. Retrieved June 24, 2023, from https://jgpcnet.com/journals/jgpc/Vol_2_No_1_June_2014/6.pdf . The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica. “Mutually Assured Destruction.” Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved June 25, 2023, from https://www.britannica.com/topic/state-sovereign- political-entity/Hegel . Gregory F. Treverton, et al. “Addressing Hybrid Threats.” HYBRIDCOE. Retrieved June 25, 2023, from https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Treverton- AddressingHybridThreats.pdf . Vidya Nadkarnii. “Bipolarism and Its End, From the Cold War to the Post-Cold War World.” Oxford Research Encyclopedias, retrieved June 27 from https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acr efore-9780190846626-e-325 . Mueller, John. “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World.” International Security 13, no. 2 (1988): 55–79. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538971 . “International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War.” National Academies Press, Retrieved June 27, 2023, from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/9897/chapter/2 . “The Cold War Era.” NCERT. retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://ncert.nic.in/ncerts/l/leps101.pdf . “Hybrid Warfare – New Threats, Complexity, and ‘Trust’ as the Antidote.” NATO Review. retrieved June 28 2023, from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2021/11/30/hybrid- warfare-new-threats-complexity-and-trust-as-the-antidote/index.html . “The Cold War Era.” NCERT. retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://ncert.nic.in/ncerts/l/leps101.pdf .

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