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Dec 6, 2023

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Abdullahi Musse The years preceding the onset of the Civil War in 1861 were marked by growing sectional tensions and the increasing likelihood of armed conflict. This essay explores a counterfactual scenario by examining the potential consequences if the Compromise of 1850 had not taken place or had occurred differently. The Compromise of 1850 was a pivotal moment in American history, aiming to address the growing divide between the North and the South. By delving into this alternative history, we can gain insight into how the outbreak of the Civil War could have been altered and evaluate the plausibility of such a scenario. The Failure of the Compromise of 1850 The Compromise of 1850 was a package of bills that attempted to address several contentious issues, such as the expansion of slavery into newly acquired territories, the Fugitive Slave Act, and the abolition of the slave trade in Washington, D.C. The agreement was fragile, and tensions remained high between the North and the South even after its passage. In our counterfactual scenario, we imagine that the Compromise of 1850 had either never been proposed or had failed to gain support from both sides. Escalating Sectional Tensions Without the Compromise of 1850, the fragile equilibrium between the North and the South would have been disrupted. The absence of this compromise would have perpetuated the sectional divide, intensifying conflicts over issues such as the expansion of slavery and the rights of states to determine their own laws regarding slavery. This escalation of tensions would have created a climate in which compromise became increasingly difficult, making the outbreak of the Civil War all the more likely.
The likelihood of the counterfactual scenario: The counterfactual scenario of the Compromise of 1850 not occurring or failing is plausible but would have had significant consequences. The issues that led to the Civil War were deeply rooted in the societal and economic structures of the time. While the Compromise of 1850 temporarily alleviated tensions, it did not address the fundamental disagreements between the North and the South regarding the institution of slavery. Therefore, even if the Compromise of 1850 had been absent or ineffective, it is probable that another event or issue would have ultimately triggered the eruption of the Civil War. The Compromise of 1850 played a crucial role in postponing the outbreak of the Civil War by attempting to address the divisive issues of its time. In our counterfactual scenario, where the Compromise of 1850 had not occurred or had failed, the Civil War would likely have been expedited or intensified. Although the absence of the compromise could have heightened sectional tensions and accelerated the timeline of the war, it is important to acknowledge that the fundamental causes of the conflict would have persisted. The counterfactual scenario allows us to recognize the contingent nature of historical events while highlighting the complex web of factors that ultimately led to the eruption of the Civil War.
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