Excess mortality
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COVID-19 AND EXCESS MORTALITY
Student’s Name
Class
Date
1
Rationale and Objectives
The global novel coronavirus disease 2019, commonly referred to as the Covid-19
pandemic, has been raging in nearly all countries worldwide and leading to millions of deaths.
Many counties have experienced different waves of the Covid-19 virus, contributing
significantly to more deaths and overstretched healthcare systems. The pandemic has had
unprecedented consequences, including a considerable rise in global mortality rates
1
. Besides,
countries provide data regarding infections, recoveries, and fatalities. In Canada, the government
has been providing daily updates about new infections, recoveries, and deaths related to Covid-
19. However, scholars have argued that the actual death toll related to Covid-19 may differ from
the numbers reported by the ministry of health. Such a discrepancy can occur due to
inconsistencies regarding the cause of death recorded in various jurisdictions and fatalities
resulting from other proximate causes influenced by the pandemic and measures to combat the
diseases, such as lockdowns
2
. For these reasons, finding the estimates of excess mortality due to
Covid-19 by age group and jurisdiction is integral in understanding the actual impact of the
disease on people based on their years.
Excess mortality remains the most reliable measure of the burden caused by the
pandemic. Although some countries have efficient death reporting systems, others do not have
such a mechanism, leading to inadequate information regarding the actual impact of the
pandemic. Canada is an example of a country that has lagged in developing an efficient death
reporting system. Some jurisdictions adjust their data late, and others fail to report any fatalities.
For instance, Statistics Canada publishes partially completed data or provisional information,
providing room for late reporting. For instance, Statistics Canada indicates that Ontario and
Brunswick can submit their daily mortality data with at least two months of delay, while others
report within one month
3
. Therefore, understanding excess mortality provides significant
information regarding the impact of Covid-19 and how it affects people across all age groups. I
intend to evaluate excess mortality to ascertain the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and how it
invariably affects people in different age groups and the regions in Canada.
Literature Review
The paper “Counting the Dead: Covid-19 and Mortality in Quebec and British Columbia”
by Yann Decarie and Pierre-Carl Michaud offers fundamental insights regarding the importance
of understanding excess mortality during Covid-19. Data reporting inaccuracies can adversely
affect how people perceive the impact of Covid-19. However, with excess mortality data, it is
possible to know how the Covid-19 pandemic affects people in all age groups and its impact on
different regions in Canada. My research will differ considerably from previous studies, as it will
incorporate data related to the Covid-19 pandemic compared to historical mortality rates and
estimates of mortality rates to determine excess mortality. Besides, the research will use data
from different regions to determine how Covid-19 affects those regions. The research will also
use information from
Ariel and Kobak
“
Tracking Excess Mortality across Countries during the
1.
Vellore, Arthi and Parman, John. "Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic
History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19."
Explorations in Economic History
79 (2021):
101381.
2
. Arthi and Parma, 10
3. Statistics Canada, “Estimation of excess mortality,”
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical- programs/document/3233_D5_V1
2
COVID-19 Pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset
.” The authors use data from different
countries to determine the dissemination of Covid-19 related data and excess mortality. The
researchers indicate that many countries do not produce vital statistics and excess mortality may
remain a mystery for an extended period. Therefore, understanding excess mortality in different
regions in Canada will help determine the impact of the diseases on people in different age
groups and various regions in the country.
Empirical Methods and Data
The study will utilize the Statistics Canada data regarding historical mortality rates by
age groups and different territories. For instance, the data obtained from this site will analyze
mortality information related to different age groups, male and female, and regions, such as
Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. The duration will be five years, from 2016 to 2020. The
study will rely on data obtained from 2016 to 2020. On the other hand, the Poisson process with
the help of the multiplicative expectation method will be used to analyze the data obtained from
the CVSD website. The process will incorporate estimation of fixed effects over data from 2016
to 2020 using a simply fixed effect specification. The Poisson process can be illustrated using
equation
ʎ
w,t
= e
yt
e
yw
4
. The process will be used to compute deaths using the 12 causes of death
in each month. Besides, Poisson regression will be utilized to re-estimate the total number of
deaths in each month. The primary reason for undertaking such a data analysis process is to
determine which regions have under-estimated or overstated the number of deaths resulting from
Covid-19.
The Poisson process will help the researcher to understand excess mortality based on
different age groups. The data will be captured in percentage form to present a relative increase
in mortality by age groups. The information obtained from the Poisson Process analysis can
determine abnormal increases in deaths in a particular age group. For instance, the data collected
can indicate a 300% increase in deaths observed for 80 to 90
5
. Moreover, it is possible to
determine excess mortality based on other parameters, such as deaths in institutions or income.
For instance, such information is critical in determining how people in the racial minority with
the highest mortality rates relate to Covid-19. Furthermore, researchers can determine how
excess mortality affects people based on their income level. Understanding excess mortality
contributes significantly to the development of appropriate policies and programs.
Expected Projects Start and End Dates
The project will start in January 2022 and end in March 2022.
Key Tasks
Proposal Approval- January
Data Collection and analysis- February
Project completion and presentation-March
Conclusion
The covid-19 pandemic has had unprecedented effects on countries worldwide. Notably,
nations update their Covid-19 pandemic data regularly on different platforms. The data provided
indicate new infections, deaths, number of people tested, recoveries, and cumulative information
regarding such data categories. However, many countries have inefficient death reporting
systems, leading to inaccuracies in mortality rates. For this reason, excess mortality has become
4.
Décarie, Yann, and Pierre-Carl Michaud. "Counting the Dead: COVID-19 and
Mortality in Quebec and British Columbia During The First Wave."
Canadian Studies in
Population
48, no. 2 (2021): 139-164.
5. Decarie, 152
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3
an important approach to understanding the actual impact of Covid-19 on people and various
regions. The approach utilizes historical data obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics
Database to analyze the excess mortality using the Poisson process. The information on excess
mortality can be used to estimate the actual impact of Covid-19 on people, regions, racial
minorities, and households. For instance, excess mortality can be used to determine how Covid-
19 affected each age group, households with different income levels, and regions. Understanding
the actual impact of Covid-19 enables policymakers and other stakeholders to make appropriate
intervention measures, programs, and plans to combat the pandemic. On the other hand, excess
mortality analysis helps address the inaccuracies that many Canadian regions have been making
when reporting Covid-19 related data. Therefore, the excess mortality approach is vital in
helping to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on different age groups, regions,
population groups, and households.
4
Bibliography
Ariel, Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak. "Tracking Excess Mortality across Countries during the
COVID-19 Pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset."
Elife
10 (2021): e69336.
Arthi, Vellore, and John Parman. "Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and
the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19."
Explorations in Economic History
79 (2021):
101381.
Décarie, Yann, and Pierre-Carl Michaud. “Counting the Dead: COVID-19 and Mortality in
Quebec and British Columbia During the First Wave.”
Canadian Studies in
Population
48, no. 2 (2021): 139-164.
Statistics Canada, “Estimation of excess mortality,” https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-
programs/document/3233_D5_V1