Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System
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Temple University *
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Course
0836
Subject
Geology
Date
Apr 3, 2024
Type
Pages
5
Uploaded by EarlStraw13318
Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including: •
Where do earthquakes occur? •
Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? •
What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives •
Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) •
Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a)
Part 1: Forecasting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists. •
What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes?
Some methods that are used are geographic location, foreshocks, ground deformation, radon gas concentrations, seismic gaps along faults, and groundwater levels. •
Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking.
I think Geographical locations are the most promising because most earth quakes happen around faults and around plate boundaries. Looking at the locations of these plates will almost always be an accurate way to measure. Part 2: The data
People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the location of future events. Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively. Data Set 1: Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 -410 / -330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 -335 / -305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 -195 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 -305 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943
-130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot: Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy m
atters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase. •
Locate the approximate year on the Y axis. •
Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is located. •
Connect the dots for that event. •
1967’s earthquake is completed for you.
•
After plotting the data, answer the following questions. Questions: •
How often do earthquakes occur in the same location? They are very often in the same area but its not as common to be in the exact same location •
Can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? west of the most recent one in 1967
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•
Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you forecast it will occur?
Its easy to predicit based on the pattern of past quakes. Based on the pattern of these earthquakes moving west it will most likely occur in Izmit •
How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be earthquake ready?
I would tell them to leave and go to the state to the west of them, or have them prepare with food and water and to seek shelter in a place with not many things on the ceilings or walls. Part 3: Oh, wait, there is one more event... You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2. Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1999 -460 / -280 Historical Account + Geo mapping Questions: •
Did this event fit into your forecast from Part 2? Explain how. Yes because it also goes west. •
Using this new information, can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur?
Istanbul •
At which point did you think you had enough data to make this forecast? Explain your thinking.
After reading about the previous earthquakes moving east to west i felt that there was enough data to predict this.
•
If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the people living in Istanbul? Again i would inform them to seek shelter and to stay away from tall structures. •
Explain how this pattern makes sense in terms of plate tectonics theory. The Anatolian fault, a seismic transform fault with gaps, experiences strike-and-slide earthquakes due to extreme stress, characterized by horizontal movement. These shallow, medium to high magnitude events occur on the transform plate