Assignment5_EarthquakeRisk_50_EMES101.ALL_Fall23

EMES101.ALL Fall23 Assignment Grade: up to 12 points Group Contribution Grade: up to 3 points Assignment 5: Determining Earthquake Risk Group Number: Group Members Present (first and last names): Each group member present must WRITE THEIR OWN NAME above to earn credit for contributing to the assignment. Do not write the names of group members who are not present. Scribes’ initials: Share the scribe duty with everybody present. This means you must rotate who writes the answers to different questions. Once you’ve completed your scribe duty, initial above. You are part of a team of geologists for the USGS (U.S. Geologic Survey) tasked with determining areas of high seismic risk in the state of California using the following calculation: Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Value Where: hazard = the chance that the building will experience strong shaking vulnerability = the likelihood that the building will collapse due to earthquake hazards value = the number of lives potentially affected Your team previously identified San Francisco as being of one of the highest hazard areas in California; it lies within the San Andreas Fault Zone and has a high probability of a M7.0-7.9 earthquake occurring in the next 30 years. The city of San Francisco has passed a bond measure that will give $10 million each to retrofit 2 schools out of 5 or 6 that have the highest seismic risk. Your job is to conduct a risk assessment on 1 of the schools while other teams assess the others. Once teams compile and share their risk assessment data, you will determine which schools have the highest risk and make recommendations to the school board on how to delegate the $20 million dollars for seismic retrofitting. Learning objectives • Assess the risk for your school based on quantified values for hazard, vulnerability, and value. • Compare your results with other geologic teams and make a recommendation on which two schools should be retrofitted at a cost of $10 million each. Part 1: Determining Risk Examine the overview maps of the San Francisco area schools. Find each of the labeled schools on the San Francisco map. Your team of geologists will be assigned to examine one of the schools based on the data folder you receive. If you’re completing this digitally as an individual, your school is El Camino High School, and its data is in a downloadable file in Sakai’s Assignments tab. All groups and individuals will calculate risk using the using a scaled down version of the FEMA Rapid Screening Protocol for Buildings and

quantifying values for variables A-G: Risk = ( A + B + C ) 9 × ( D + E + F ) 3.5 ×G Where hazard consists of: Where vulnerability consists of: Where value consists of: A = peak ground acceleration D = soft stories G = population B = liquefaction potential E = unreinforced masonry C = landslide potential F = vertical or plan irregularity Tabulate the data for only your assigned school in the table below. Note that columns A-G correspond to the variables in the previous equation. You must write your answers in the table below to be graded; we will NOT grade your answers in the Google Sheet. (4 points, 0.5 points for each column). Hazard Vulnerabili ty Value Analysis School A : Peak Ground Acceleration B : Liquefactio n Potential C : Landslide Potential D : Soft Stories? E : Unreinforce d Masonry F : Vertical or Plan Irregularity G : Population Risk Factor R = [(A+B+C)/9] x [(D+E+F)/3.5] x G Marina Middle School Garfield Elementary School Francisco Middle School Herbert Hoover Middle School Guadalupe Elementary School El Camino High School Table 1. Complied data and risk analysis. Before continuing, refresh your team’s memory by revisiting the components of section 8.6 in your text on ground shaking, liquefaction, and seismically induced landslides. A. Peak Ground Acceleration The Strong Shaking Potential Map shows the peak ground acceleration that is 98% likely to occur in 50 years. The value of peak ground acceleration is a measure of the most violent shaking expected in a likely earthquake. The higher the acceleration, the stronger the shaking. Colors on the map correspond to peak ground acceleration in terms of the fraction of free-fall acceleration (“% g”). Values of % g associated with each color are listed on the map’s legend. Use the following categories to score your school’s location (from 1-3) based on the ground acceleration (% g) and, therefore, the seismic hazard due to strong shaking. Write your team’s determined score for variable A in column A on the Table 1.  <30% g: Low hazard = 1  30-60% g: Moderate hazard = 2  >60% g: Significant hazard = 3

D. E. F. Building Vulnerability: Soft Stories, Unreinforced Masonry, and Vertical or Plan Irregularity Building construction plays a large role in determining risk. You can assess some major construction issues using the photos provided of the school buildings. Note that most schools have multiple buildings. Do your best to visually assess all the buildings and give the maximum score for each category. Note: $10 million is enough to retrofit one school building. Examine the provided photographs of the buildings and walk around it virtually by dragging the Street View icon to your school in Google Maps to the see if there are any “soft stories”, floors of the building with few supporting walls, such as parking garages or large auditoriums, that are underneath other floors of the building. Watch this video for a demonstration of a soft story collapse and what can be done to prevent it, and view this picture and this picture of soft-story collapse in San Francisco’s Marina District from the 1989 M w 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.  If the buildings do not have soft stories = 0  If the buildings have soft stories = 1 Buildings made of unreinforced masonry (URM), brick or concrete without reinforcement, are particularly susceptible to earthquake damage because they provide little ability for the structure to bend and flex during an earthquake. Read the first 3 pages of this USGS and California Geological Survey’s report on unreinforced masonry buildings in California and examine this photo from San Francisco’s Marina District after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to inform your team. For this project, you have little information besides the photos in your data file. Score each school for URM using the photos. Write your team’s determined score for variable E in column E on Table 1.  If the building is not made of URM = 1  If the building might be made of URM = 1.5  If there is clear evidence that a building is made of URM = 2 Buildings with a vertical irregularity (different parts at different heights) or plan irregularity (deviations from a box-shape) tend to fare poorly in earthquakes. Give each building with either type of irregularity a score of 0.5.  If the buildings do not have vertical or plan irregularities = 0  If the buildings have vertical or plan irregularities = 0.5 G. Population The “value” we are using when calculating risk is the number of lives at risk. Information about the number of students, faculty, and staff is provided in Table 2. Table 2. Population data for select San Francisco schools.

Calculating Risk Now that you’ve quantified variables, calculate risk for your school using the equation on page 2. Show your work. Write your school’s risk score in the Analysis column on Table 1. Navigate to the appropriate Google Sheet, find your school, enter your group number in the second column, and then type in all the data you team has complied for your school. Each person completing this assignment as an individual should enter their name and data for El Camino High School in a separate row. Create a new row if necessary. EMES101.001: Google Sheet EMES101.002: Google Sheet Part 2: Analysis 1. Examine the other teams’ data. How do your values compare with other teams’ values for the same school? Are there variables you are less certain about? Which data, if any, would you like to better constrain, remeasure, or find other ways to estimate? (1 point) 2. Calculated risk allows you to compare schools in terms of the number of students protected by an earthquake retrofit. Which factor, aside from population, has the most influence on the calculated risk? (2 points)

Please complete your peer assessment now! In recognition that the functionality, satisfaction, and academic benefits of group work largely depend on equal participation and the perceived value of each group members’ contributions, up to 3 points of the Group Contributions portion of your course grade will be based on peer assessment according to the rubric in the survey. Complete the peer assessment here (or access using the QR Code with the photo app on your phone) for all group members EXCEPT yourself , including members from other groups you may have worked with temporarily. You can access the survey ONCE so be sure to evaluate ALL your group members by selecting ALL their names when asked who you are assessing (consult the names written on your discussion question or take a picture of the names if you’ll be completing the peer assessment later). There is no requirement for how many group members receive certain points; evaluate them fairly, honestly and based on their effort and quality of their contributions. Because assignments are formative assessments, judging peers on the accuracy of their contributions is secondary. Your feedback will always remain confidential. Your peer assessment score will be the average of those submitted by your group members. If you do not complete a peer assessment for each of your group members, you will not receive your peer assessment points. Download a .pdf of your responses after submission as proof of completion. The survey closes at the end of the late-submission window for this assignment.