Data Exploration 3 EAPS 32700
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Date
Dec 6, 2023
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EAPS 32700 (2023)
DATA EXPLORATION 3: MODELING FUTURE
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS & COSTS
PURPOSE
We know that the addition of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere cause the planet to warm, but
what are the effects of this? In this assignment, you will use the
webDICE model
to differentiate between climate
sensitivity and future emissions as distinct sources of uncertainty in our projections of future climate change. The model
will also help you to quantify the social costs of climate change. The goal of this activity is to develop your understanding
of the sources of uncertainty around future predictions of climate change and its impacts.
BACKGROUND
For this exploration, we will use the
webDICE model
, an online Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy model developed
by Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy at the University of Chicago. We will manipulate
input parameters and interpret outputs of this model to understand uncertainties and costs associated with climate
change.
READ THIS:
Read through the entire exercise before you get started on the questions. The wording of the questions will
help you understand our goals for the assignment and make the “big picture” clearer. Questions you need to answer in
the quiz for this data exploration are
bolded and highlighted.
TASKS / QUESTIONS
1.
To get the most out of this activity, its important to understand the goals of model outputs. Take a few minutes to
read and review this
social cost of carbon factsheet
or the EPA’s explanation of the
Social Cost of Carbon
. Then,
answer this question in a 2-4 sentence response:
a.
Question 1: What is the social cost of carbon? How is it estimated? How is this value used and by whom?
2.
We have been using models for the past two explorations, so now is the time to synthesize what you know and think
about the
webDICE model
. First, take a look at the
webDICE model documentation
, focusing on Sections 1 - 7 (6
pages). Sections 8.5, 9.0, 9.3 are also relevant to the material we will cover and it may be beneficial to skim these
pages. After reading, answer the following questions in a 1-2 paragraph response:
a.
Question 2: What is a model, as applied to climate change science? Define “parameters”, “input”, and
“output” as they apply to climate modeling. What is webDICE? What are some components of the
webDICE model? Are there situations in which the webDICE’s output will be of limited value or potentially
misleading?
3.
The webDICE model will explore ideas of feedbacks, forcings, and climate sensitivity. Research these terms, and then
answer these questions in 2-4 sentences each:
a.
Question 3: Explain how a climate forcing is distinct from a climate feedback. As part of your answer, give
an example of a climate forcing and a climate feedback.
b.
Question 4: What is climate sensitivity? Your friend (who is not in this class) asks you to explain the
following statements that summarize the findings in the
IPCC AR6 Report
: “
Modelled pathways consistent
with the continuation of policies implemented by the end of 2020 lead to global warming of 3.2 [2.2 to 3.5]°C
(5–
95% range) by 2100 (medium confidence) …. Pathways of >4°C (≥50%) by 2100 would imply a reversal of
EAPS 32700 (2023)
current technology and/or mitigation policy trends (medium confidence). However, such warming could
occur in emissions pathways consistent with policies implemented by the end of 2020 if climate sensitivity or
carbon cycle feedbacks are higher than the best estimate (high confidence)”
What do you say? How do you
explain these statements in easy-to-understand terms?
4.
Follow the directions below to begin manipulating the webDICE model to generate a prediction for the globally
averaged warming that we will experience in the year 2105 (relative to the preindustrial era) for each of the six
scenarios given in the Data Table below.
Question 5: You will copy/paste this table into the quiz for this exercise.
Data Table 1
: Temperature rise in 2105 relative to Preindustrial Era (
0
C):
Climate Sensitivity is 1.6
0
C
Climate Sensitivity is 3.2
0
C
Climate Sensitivity is 4.4
0
C
Business as
Usual
Optimized
Policy
a.
Go to
http://webdice.rdcep.org/
. Select “Advanced Inputs”
b.
The screen that appears has four graphs.
i.
These are graphs of the output from the webDICE model, which has already been run once for what
it has called the Default Run 0.
ii.
The figure in the upper left-hand corner shows Atmospheric Temperature Increase since 1900.
Move your mouse to the blue curve and find that the Default Run predicts that it will be 3.8°C
warmer in the year 2105 than it was in 1900.
Enter this number in the table above.
iii.
The Default Run is chosen with a set of default model inputs: Climate Sensitivity is 3.2 Degrees
Celsius for a Doubling of Carbon Dioxide and our future emissions will follow a “Business as Usual”
trajectory.
c.
At the upper right hand corner of the next screen, select “Parameters”
d.
There are now three rows of tabs at the top left of the next screen:
i.
First row: Standard, Advanced, Documentation. Advanced should be highlighted.
ii.
Second row: Essential, Climate, Economy, Policy, Customizable. Essential should be highlighted.
iii.
Third row: Policy, Climate, Economy, Technology, Fossil Fuels, Welfare, Damages. Policy should be
highlighted.
e.
We want to change model inputs and run again. The webDICE model calls “inputs” “Parameters.” The two
parameters we’ll be varying can be found under:
i.
the Policy (3rd Row) tab, which is currently what you should be looking at. This is where you can
switch between “Business as Usual” and “Optimized Policy” emissions trajectories. In Business as
Usual, we do very little to reduce our emissions, and in Optimized Policy, we do a lot to reduce our
emissions.
ii.
the Climate (3rd Row) tab. This is where you can vary the value of Climate Sensitivity from 3.2 (it’s
default value, which is what science says is the most likely value) to a high and low value.
f.
To fill out the data table above, you need
to run the webDICE model five more times
to fill out the five
additional blanks in the data table. For example to fill out the bottom left corner in the data table, you’ll
need to:
EAPS 32700 (2023)
i.
Select “Optimized Policy” while you are looking at the Policy (3rd Row) tab
ii.
Select “Climate Sensitivity = 1.6” while you are looking at the Climate (3rd Row) tab. (Always keep
“DICE carbon selected, don’t change that)
iii.
Click the orange “Run Model” button in the upper right of the screen.
iv.
In a few seconds, the third row of tabs will disappear, and the screen that appears will look just like
the first screen that you saw, but now there are two lines, a blue one (which you already used to get
3.80C in step 3), and an orange one which shows you model output (i.e., predictions about the
future) when the inputs “Optimized Policy” and “Climate Sensitivity = 1.6” are chosen.
v.
For the upper left figure, mouseover on the plot to determine the Atmospheric temperature
increase in the year 2105, and copy that down into the appropriate location in the data table.
g.
Question 6: Once you finish running the model and filling in the Data Table, summarize your results in 2-3
sentences. Then, think about which parameter had a bigger effect on the predicted temperature increase,
“Climate sensitivity” or “Policy”? What do these two parameters represent in the real world?
h.
The values that you recorded in the table above are temperature rises, in degrees Celsius, relative to the
preindustrial era. Now,
make new table of predictions for temperature rise in the year 2105
, in degrees
Fahrenheit, relative to today. Recall that we have already warmed about 1.1°C, and to convert from a
change in degrees Celsius to a change in degrees Fahrenheit, you need to multiply by 1.8. To make this
conversion you can use the following formula:
𝑇𝑇
°
𝐹𝐹
= 1.8
∗
(
𝑇𝑇
°
𝐶𝐶
−
1.1 °
𝐶𝐶
)
Where:
𝑇𝑇
°
𝐹𝐹
= Temperature rise in 2105, relative to 2015, in Farenheit.
𝑇𝑇
°
𝐶𝐶
= Temperature rise in 2105, relative to Preindustrial, in Celsius.
Question 7: You will copy/paste this table into the quiz for this exercise.
Data Table 2
: Temperature rise in 2105 relative to Preindustrial Era (
0
C):
Climate Sensitivity is 1.6
0
C
Climate Sensitivity is 3.2
0
C
Climate Sensitivity is 4.4
0
C
Business as
Usual
Optimized
Policy
i.
Question 8:
Next, lets apply what you calculated in the above table. Choose a location (West Lafayette, your
home city) and
determine the temperature on the hottest day in the past year (2022 or 2023) at that
location.
You can use Google or other search engines to determine this value.
j.
Question 9:
Use the information from part a together with the data table in question 5 to give a high,
medium, and low estimate for how hot the hottest day of the year will be in 2105.
Note: Your answer is
not an exact answer, but rather a prediction based on the information you have already found.
k.
Question 10:
Do you think that the warming we are likely to experience by 2105 if we do nothing to
reduce our emissions is acceptable? Use your answers to questions 8 and 9 as well as your understanding
of how climate change impacts are related to the extent of future warming in your discussion.
Note: This
question is asking for your opinion. Try to support it with model outputs, data and sound reasoning (i.e.,
systems thinking)
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EAPS 32700 (2023)
l.
Question 11: Within the scientific community, there is no debate: a very large majority of scientists who
study climate believe that the climate has already warmed as a result of human influences and that it is
virtually certain that more warming will occur in the coming decades. The debate that does exist among
scientists concerns “how much” and “how fast” the warming will occur, not whether it will occur. Do your
results from the webDICE model support or refute this?
You should discuss uncertainty in input variables
(e.g., climate sensitivity, future emissions) in your discussion.
5.
Next you will calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC). You will use webDICE to make figures and interpret them (i.e.,
practice translating model output into common English). Follow the steps below to generate the SCC curve under
different model scenarios and interpret the results.
a.
Go to
http://webdice.rdcep.org
. (or click webDICE in upper left corner to clear runs from Task 4)
b.
Click on “Standard Inputs” on the top right side of the page
c.
Click on “Customizable” near the top of the page.
d.
Navigate to the bottom of the page to change the variable for the x and y axes
i.
For the x-axis, select “Total Emissions per Year.”
ii.
For the y-axis, select “Social Cost of Carbon.”
e.
Question 12: Interpret the SCC curve you generated. Describe the shape of the social cost of carbon
curve.. In particular, is the slope of the curve positive or negative? Is the slope of the curve constant or
variable? What does this mean?
f.
Question 13: What is the social cost of carbon if annual emissions are around 13 gigatons of carbon?
Write
a complete
sentence that interprets this value.
g.
Now we will change two of the Parameters of the model, “Climate Sensitivity” and “Harms”, to analyze their
impact on the Social Cost of Carbon curve.
i.
Click on “Parameters” on the top right hand corner.
ii.
Click on the “Climate” link (3rd row)
iii.
Increase the “Climate sensitivity”.
iv.
Click on “Run Model” on the top right-hand of the page.
v.
Repeat Steps f, g, and h. Then try decreasing climate sensitivity.
vi.
If the SCC figure is not showing, click on “Customizable” (2nd row) to return to it.
h.
Question 14:
Describe how an increase in climate sensitivity changed the shape of the social cost of
carbon curve. In particular, How did its y-intercept change? What does that mean? How did its slope
change at 20 gigatons?
i.
Click on “Parameters” again on the top right hand corner.
j.
Return the “Climate sensitivity” parameter back to its middle position.
k.
Go to the Damages tab (3rd row) and increase the “Harms” parameter.
l.
Click on “Run Model” on the top right-hand of the page. Repeat.
m.
Question 15: How do estimates of “Harms” affect estimates of SCC? With “Climate sensitivity” at the
expected (middle) value, increase “Harms” by one increment. Describe how an increase in “Harms”
changed the shape of the social cost of carbon curve. In particular, how did its y-intercept change? How
did the slope change around 20 gigatons? What does this mean?
n.
Question 16: Compare and contrast the effect of the climate sensitivity and harms on the social cost of
carbon. Which of them causes the social cost of carbon curve to change more significantly? Why do you
think this is?
EAPS 32700 (2023)
6.
Putting it all together.
Lastly, think holistically about the activities you’ve completed. Then, compose a 1-2
paragraph response to the following question:
a.
Question 17: webDICE shows us that emissions are costly. Who will pay the costs of climate change? What
can/should we do about it as individuals? as a community? as a nation? as a global society?
Note: This
question is asking for your opinion. Try to support it with model outputs, data and sound reasoning (i.e.,
systems thinking)
SUBMISSION AND CRITERIA FOR GRADING
Once you have completed this exploration, you will input your answers to the
bolded, highlighted
questions in a quiz
titled “Data Exploration 3 Quiz”. Be ready to type out, or copy/paste your answers when you open the quiz; i.e.
complete this worksheet, first. You may work with up to four partners, please enter their names in the first question of
the quiz (2 points).
Question 1
2 points
Question 2
4 points
Question 3
3 points
Question 4
3 points
Question 5
3 points
Question 6
3 points
Question 7
3 points
Question 8
1 point
Question 9
2 points
Question 10
4 points
Question 11
3 points
Question 12
2 points
Question 13
1 point
Question 14
3 points
Question 15
4 points
Question 16
3 points
Question 17
4 points
You will be graded by point values indicated for each of the questions above. Points will be assigned for answering the
question, for accuracy of your response, and for completeness of the response. Note that all responses request sentence
paragraph answers – include all details needed to fully demonstrate your understanding. You will upload the data tables
into the quiz, but if you want to upload drawings, or video captures, you are welcome to do so…whatever it takes for
you explain your answers.