Discussion 4- evidential reasoning

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Florida State University *

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4744

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Geography

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Dec 6, 2023

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A. Issues Global Strategist - Geopolitical Powe r & Naval D ominance The main concern of a global strategist is their nation's geopolitical power and influence on the global stage. They aim to maintain a robust navy to project power across the seas, protect economic interests, ensure national defense, and express national culture. To achieve this, the strategist must assess the nation's naval capabilities compared to other global powers and formulate long-term strategies to maintain or improve their naval dominance. Naval Commander - Naval Capabilities, Readiness, and Modernization The primary responsibility of a naval commander is to ensure that the navy is ready and effective in fulfilling its duties. These duties may include safeguarding global commerce, responding to conflicts, and providing humanitarian aid and assistance during natural disasters. Naval commanders must ensure the fleet is well-maintained and modernized with advanced technology and strategies, which are crucial to fulfilling their roles. Weapons Designer - Naval Weapon System Innovation & Cost-Effectiveness As a weapons designer, the primary objective is to design and develop state-of-the-art naval weaponry and systems. This requires balancing the need to enhance a nation's naval capabilities with the imperative of accommodating budgetary limitations. The end result should be reliable, efficient, and superior naval weaponry that is cost-effective and technologically advanced. Senior Policy Official - National Defense & Resource Allocation As a senior policy official, a vital responsibility is to develop and execute national defense policies, particularly those related to naval defense. In doing so, it is crucial to consider the geopolitical context, budget constraints, and diplomatic relationships to ensure that the nation's naval forces are appropriately structured and financed. You also need to consider resource allocation in balancing national security needs and economic considerations. B. Informational Request

Global Strategist 1. What is the current distribution of naval power among major nations? 2. Do any regions have naval tensions? 3. How does naval power distribution affect cooperation, diplomacy, and conflicts? 4. What are the geopolitical implications of dominant naval power? 5. What advancements in naval technology and capabilities should be monitored for their potential to disrupt the status quo in naval power? Naval Commander 1. What are the primary roles/responsibilities of a nation's navy? 2. How does the presence of naval forces impact the security of global shipping routes? 3. What were the consequences of the reduced naval presence in the Strait of Malacca in the 1990s, and why did piracy increase in that region? 4. How have aircraft carrier battle groups been employed to project power and influence in various conflicts, such as the war in Somalia and the fight against the Islamic State? 5. What is the outlook for the future of naval power, including potential growth of naval capabilities in countries like China and India, as well as technological advancements? Weapons Designer 1. How do naval forces and aircraft carriers project global power, and what weapon systems are commonly used in these operations? 2. What are the challenges and threats faced by naval forces and aircraft carrier battle groups in different parts of the world, and how are these challenges addressed using weapon systems? 3. What technological advances and innovations in naval weapons and systems are mentioned or implied in the passage? 4. What are the future trends in naval warfare and weaponry, and how do these trends impact weapons designers? 5. What are the factors that influence military expenditures on naval weapons and systems? Senior Policy Official 1. What is the impact of having a robust naval presence on a country's position in the global arena? 2. How do naval forces, particularly aircraft carrier battle groups, utilize their flexibility to project power and influence on a global scale? 3. What are the potential consequences of reduced naval presence in key regions, such as the Strait of Malacca where piracy has been observed? 4. How does the US Navy compare in size and capabilities to other major global navies, such as those of Russia, China, Japan, the UK, France, and India?

5. What are the expected trends and developments in naval power, including carrier fleet expansion, technological advancements, and potential shifts in global naval dominance, and how will these trends impact relations and policies? C. Where to Seek Information - Naval Publications/Journals - International Relations Journals - Government and Military Websites - Defense News Websites - Academic Institutions - Online Forums/ conferences D. Analytic Argument and Data - My analytic Argument will most likely be descriptive and explanatory. - There is a substantial amount of data available to address the issue. E. Cognitive Biases & Intuitive Traps 1. Confirmation Bias - Analysts may hold preconceived notions or biases about the significance of naval power or the efficiency of particular tactics. As a result, they could actively look for and give more attention to data that supports their existing perspectives while neglecting or minimizing conflicting evidence. 2. Overconfidence Bias - Analysts with naval expertise may overestimate knowledge and predictions and be overly confident in assessing capabilities and strategies. 3. Hindsight Bias - It is common for analysts to retrospectively interpret historical naval events as more predictable and evident than they were at the time. This bias can make it challenging to understand the complexity and uncertainty of naval operations and their outcomes. F. How could a conference help? - The conference could feature experts who can provide historical context and contemporary perspectives on the importance of naval power. They will discuss the role of navies in projecting national power, ensuring economic stability, and fostering national culture. This discussion will demonstrate how naval power has evolved over time and why it continues to be relevant today.

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- The protection of shipping trade routes is a crucial factor for global commerce. Experts can analyze the role of naval forces in ensuring the safe flow of goods and people, emphasizing the vital connection between naval presence and economic growth - The reduced naval presence of the US Navy in the Philippines resulted in an increase in piracy in the Strait of Malacca, which illustrates the practical consequences of naval presence. Experts can use case studies like this to showcase the influence of reduced naval presence on the security and economic interests of a nation.

Discussion 4- evidential reasoning

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