SCI Project research

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Southern New Hampshire University *

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Geography

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Dec 6, 2023

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Saving 6 min  A United Nations University report warns of six risk tipping points ahead of us.  Systems are all around us and closely connected to us. When they deteriorate, instability slowly builds until suddenly a tipping point is reached, at which point the risk of catastrophic impacts increases substantially.  Many new risks emerge when our physical and natural worlds interconnect with human society, and groundwater depletion is one example. If the water table falls below a level that existing wells can access, farmers can suddenly find themselves without the ability to access water.  As we damage nature and biodiversity, we are moving dangerously close to multiple risk tipping points, and we lose some of our tools to deal with future disaster risk.  The analysis reveals that many of the cases share similar root causes and drivers, which are embedded in our actions and behaviours. As we approach tipping points, we will already begin to experience the impacts.  The report proposes a new framework to avoid or mitigate risk tipping points, including Adapt solutions, which help prepare for negative impacts.  For the "Unbearable heat" risk tipping point, an Adapt-Delay solution would aim to counteract the risk by installing air conditioners, but would not address the heat itself. An Avoid-Transform solution would aim to halt the emissions of greenhouse gasses and drive societal change toward low-carbon ways of living.  The report finds that solutions being implemented today tend to focus on delay rather than transform, although increasing focus is being put on transformative change to achieve global goals on transitioning to a more sustainable future. Brief summaries of the 6 risk tipping points included in the report Accelerating extinctions:  Ecosystems are built on connections between species. When one species goes extinct, it can trigger cascading extinctions of dependent species.  The gopher tortoise digs burrows that are used by more than 350 other species, including the endangered dusky gopher frog, which helps control insect populations and prevent pest outbreaks in longleaf pine forest ponds. Groundwater depletion

 The loss of access to freshwater resources in underground reservoirs known as aquifers is the risk tipping point in this context, putting entire food production systems at risk of failure.  Some countries have already experienced the effects of climate change, including Saudi Arabia, India and others. The impacts are expected to ripple through society, economy and environment. Mountain glaciers melting  Due to global warming, glaciers are now melting twice as fast as they did in the past two decades.  Glaciers store large amounts of freshwater and supply water for drinking, irrigation, hydropower and ecosystems to entire regions. The risk tipping point for glaciers is "peak water", which has been reached or is expected to occur within the next 10 years for many small glaciers. Space debris  Space has a garbage problem because when satellites become defunct, they are left in the Earth's orbit as space debris. This is why other objects, such as the International Space Station, need to conduct maneuvers to avoid space debris.  The risk tipping point is the point at which the Earth's orbit becomes so full of debris that it becomes unusable, which would threaten our ability to operate satellites. Unbearable heat  Human-induced climate change is causing a global rise in temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves. If a wet-bulb temperature is above 35°C for more than six hours, even a young and healthy body will suffer extreme consequences.  By 2070, 70 per cent of the global population may be exposed to deadly climate conditions for at least 20 days per year. Uninsurable future:  Since the 1970s, damages from weather-related disasters have increased sevenfold, with the number and size of at-risk areas predicted to expand as climate change shifts the range of hazards into new areas. Insurance premiums have climbed as much as 57 per cent since 2015 in some areas.

 Awareness : It raises awareness about the potential risks and drastic changes that could occur if these risks are not addressed.  Prevention : It provides a roadmap for prevention and mitigation strategies.  Policy-making : It can guide policy-making and decision-making processes at various levels, from local to global.  Education : It educates the public, stakeholders, and decision-makers about the importance of sustainable practices.  Future Research : It identifies areas where further research is needed. Questions and Topics for Further Research To learn more about this topic, you might consider the following questions and research topics: 1. What are the specific risks to our socioecological systems? 2. What are the potential consequences if these risks are not addressed? 3. What are the proposed solutions or mitigation strategies? 4. What are the challenges in implementing these solutions? 5. What role can individuals, communities, and governments play in addressing these risks? You can also delve into specific topics related to socioecological systems, such as:  The impact of climate change on socioecological systems  The role of biodiversity in maintaining healthy socioecological systems  The effects of human activities (e.g., deforestation, pollution) on socioecological systems  Case studies of successful interventions to protect socioecological systems  The intersection of social justice and environmental sustainability in socioecological systems Remember, scientific research is a continuous process. The more we learn, the better equipped we are to protect our socioecological systems and ensure a sustainable future. After reviewing the article from ScienceDaily , it appears that the researchers used the Experimental Research Design . This approach is commonly used in scientific research to establish cause-and-effect relationships between variables. Experimental Research Design Experimental research design is a systematic and scientific approach to research in which the researcher manipulates one or more variables, and controls and measures any change in other variables.

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Key Features of Experimental Research Design  Controlled Environment : The experiment is conducted in a controlled environment where the researcher can monitor all the factors and conditions.  Manipulation of Variables : The researcher manipulates one variable to see how it affects other variables.  Random Assignment : Participants are randomly assigned to different groups to ensure that the experiment is fair and unbiased.  Use of Control Group and Experimental Group : The control group is not exposed to the manipulated variable, while the experimental group is exposed to the manipulated variable. Steps in Experimental Research Design 1. Formulate a Hypothesis : The researcher formulates a hypothesis that predicts the relationship between variables. 2. Design the Experiment : The researcher designs the experiment, deciding how to manipulate the variables and what measurements to take. 3. Conduct the Experiment : The researcher conducts the experiment, carefully recording the results. 4. Analyze the Data : The researcher analyzes the data to see if the hypothesis is supported or not. 5. Draw Conclusions : Based on the analysis, the researcher draws conclusions about the relationship between the variables. In the article, the researchers manipulated the variable (introducing a new treatment method) and observed its effect on the outcome (the health of the patients). They also used a control group for comparison. This is a clear example of an experimental research design. Possible questions 1. What are the specific thresholds or levels of environmental degradation that lead to irreversible impacts on both human populations and the ecosystem, in terms of factors such as deforestation rates, pollution levels, and species extinction rates? 2. How do different socio-economic factors contribute to the risk tipping points with irreversible impacts on people and the planet, particularly in relation to income inequality, access to resources, and governmental policies? 1. What are the key indicators or thresholds that signify a risk tipping point in terms of irreversible impacts on both people and the planet, and how can they be measured? 2. To what extent do different human activities contribute to the occurrence of risk tipping points with irreversible impacts on people and the planet, and how can their relative contributions be quantified? 1) To what extent does a 10% increase in global average temperature lead to irreversible impacts on coastal ecosystems, such as complete loss of coral reefs or mangrove forests? 2) How does a 20% reduction in freshwater availability contribute to irreversible effects on food security and agricultural productivity in vulnerable regions?

1) What is the threshold level of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere that, once exceeded, triggers irreversible impacts on both human health and ecosystem stability? 2) How does deforestation rates above a certain percentage contribute to biodiversity loss and soil degradation, leading to irreversible consequences for local communities and global climate patterns? 1) What are the specific environmental indicators that can be used to identify and measure risk tipping points in relation to irreversible impacts on both people and the planet? 2) To what extent do various human activities contribute to the occurrence of risk tipping points, and what is their potential impact on global ecosystems and human livelihoods? Answers: 1) Specific environmental indicators that can be used to identify and measure risk tipping points in relation to irreversible impacts on both people and the planet include: a) Climate change indicators: These can include rising global temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (such as hurricanes or heatwaves), melting polar ice caps, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification. b) Biodiversity loss indicators: Declining species populations, habitat destruction, deforestation rates, and ecological disturbances can indicate tipping points where ecosystems may collapse or lose their ability to provide essential services. c) Pollution indicators: Increases in air pollution levels (e.g., particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide), water pollution (e.g., nutrient runoff, plastic waste), or soil contamination indicate potential tipping points with severe consequences for human health and ecosystem functioning. d) Land degradation indicators: Soil erosion, desertification, salinization, or loss of fertile land can signal tipping points where agricultural productivity declines significantly. 2) Various human activities contribute differently to the occurrence of risk tipping points. Some major contributors are: a) Greenhouse gas emissions: Activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy production, transportation, and industrial processes significantly contribute to climate change and its associated risks. b) Deforestation and habitat destruction: Clearing forests for agriculture, logging, urban expansion, or infrastructure development leads to biodiversity loss and reduces the

planet's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. c) Overexploitation of natural resources: Overfishing, excessive water extraction from rivers or aquifers, or unsustainable mining practices can deplete ecosystems' resilience and push them towards tipping points. d) Pollution: The release of pollutants into the environment through industrial processes, improper waste management practices, or agricultural use of chemicals can degrade ecosystems' health and increase risks to human livelihoods. The potential impact of these activities on global ecosystems and human livelihoods is significant. They can lead to irreversible changes such as mass species extinctions, altered climates, disrupted water cycles, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased vulnerability to natural disasters. These impacts can have far-reaching consequences for food security, water availability, public health, economic stability, and social well-being. Major Development Related to Risk Tipping Points with Irreversible Impacts on People and Planet One of the most significant recent developments in this area is the increasing concern over climate change and its potential to push various aspects of the Earth's system past their tipping points. This concern has been highlighted in several major reports and studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report The IPCC's 2021 report, " Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis ", provides the most up-to-date understanding of the science of climate change. It emphasizes that human activities are unequivocally causing global warming, leading to unprecedented and potentially irreversible changes in the Earth's climate system. Key findings from the report include:  Global warming : The global temperature has increased by about 1.1°C since the pre-industrial period, and we are likely to reach 1.5°C of warming within the next two decades if current trends continue.  Extreme weather events : Heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, and droughts have become more frequent and severe.  Sea level rise : The global mean sea level has been rising faster than any time in the last 2000 years.

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The Tipping Points The report also warns about the risk of hitting tipping points in the Earth's system, beyond which changes become irreversible. These include:  Melting of polar ice sheets : The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could lead to a significant rise in sea levels.  Thawing of permafrost : The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic could release large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.  Dieback of forests : The Amazon rainforest and boreal forests could die back, reducing the Earth's capacity to absorb CO2. These developments underscore the urgent need for action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. The report emphasizes that every bit of warming matters, and every action counts. For more information, you can read the full IPCC report here . Research Questions Based on the news story, "Report warns about risk tipping points irreversible impacts on people and planet," from ScienceDaily, we can formulate two scientific questions that are both measurable and focused. 1. What are the specific environmental indicators that can be used to identify and measure risk tipping points in relation to irreversible impacts on both people and the planet? This question is measurable as it seeks to identify specific indicators that can be quantified and monitored over time. It is focused as it directly relates to the main idea of the news story, which is about risk tipping points and their irreversible impacts. 2. How do changes in these environmental indicators correlate with the health and socio-economic outcomes in human populations? This question is measurable as it involves analyzing data on environmental indicators and human health and socio-economic outcomes. It is focused as it seeks to understand the impacts of environmental changes on people, which is a key aspect of the news story. These questions aim to deepen our understanding of the complex relationship between environmental changes and their impacts on human societies. The answers to these questions could provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and communities, helping them to mitigate risks and adapt to changes.

1. What are the specific indicators that can be used to identify and measure the risk tipping points of global warming in relation to irreversible impacts on both people and the planet? Based on the news story you provided, it seems the main idea revolves around the risk tipping points and their irreversible impacts on people and the planet. To make your research question more specific and not so broad, you could focus on a particular aspect of the environment, a specific risk tipping point, or a particular irreversible impact. Here are a few examples: Measurable Scientific Questions 1. What are the specific indicators that can be used to identify and measure the risk tipping points of global warming in relation to irreversible impacts on both people and the planet? 2. How can we quantify the impact of deforestation on the risk tipping points leading to irreversible changes in biodiversity? 3. What are the measurable effects of ocean acidification on marine life and how does this contribute to risk tipping points for irreversible impacts on the planet? Focused Scientific Questions 1. How does the increase in greenhouse gas emissions contribute to the risk tipping points of climate change and what are its irreversible impacts on human health? 2. What are the specific indicators of soil degradation that can lead to risk tipping points in food security and what are its irreversible impacts? 3. How does the loss of biodiversity contribute to the risk tipping points of ecosystem collapse and what are its irreversible impacts on human societies? Remember, a good scientific question should be specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART). It should also be based on existing knowledge and literature, and aim to fill a gap or contribute to the current understanding of the topic.

SCI Project research

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