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[QUESTION]
[Problem 14.7]
The Bertz Merchandising Company uses a simulation approach to judge investment projects.
Three factors are employed: market demand, in units; price per unit minus cost per unit (on an
after-tax basis); and investment required at time 0. These factors are felt to be independent of one
another. In analyzing a new “fad” consumer product with a one-year product life, Bertz estimates
the following probability distributions:
a. Using a table of random numbers or some other random process, simulate 20 or more trials of
these three factors, and compute the internal rate of return on this one-year investment for each
trial.
b. Approximately, what is the most likely return? How risky is the project?
[ANSWER]
a.
Each simulation will differ somewhat, so there is no exact answer to this problem. A
simulation involving 100 runs resulted in the following IRR distribution:
Continue on next page
b.
The most likely IRR was in the 7 to 9 percent range – a relatively modest return. As can
be seen, the distribution shows a high probability of relatively low (even negative)
returns.
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