Discussion Week 3 - Moore's Law

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Southern New Hampshire University *

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Electrical Engineering

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Jan 9, 2024

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“From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?” Moore’s Law: states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years.

The easiest way to approach this problem is to create an equation we can place the relevant numbers into. We’re focusing on how to predict the number of transistors per IC in a future year, so the equation that we’re going to make can be equal to F. It looks like we’re often going to be

analyzing the number of transistors in a current (or past) year, so I’ll signify that as C. Finally, we’ll want to focus on a key part of the Moore’s Law statement: that the progress of technology doubles every 2 years. Here we will use n, which is the number of years between F and C. It’s important to take 2 and multiply it by n over 2,

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because Moore’s Law specifies that the technology doubles every 2 years. F = numbers of transistors per IC in a future year C = numbers of transistors per IC in a current (or past) year n = number of years divided by 2 If you take all of this and put it together you get an

equation that looks like this: F = C * 2^(n/2) We can use the aforementioned discussion prompt to get the numbers we want to plug in. Estimated # of transistors in 2016: ~600,000,000 = C # of transistors in 2040: ??? = F Number of years: 2040- 2016 = 24 = (n/2)

F = 600,000,000 * 2^(24/2) Simplify to: F = 600,000,000 * 2^(12) Simplify again: F= 600,000,000 * 4096 Multiply: F = 2,457,600,000,000 estimated transistors in 2040 “From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your

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estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?” Moore’s Law: states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. The easiest way to approach this problem is to create an equation we can place the relevant

numbers into. We’re focusing on how to predict the number of transistors per IC in a future year, so the equation that we’re going to make can be equal to F. It looks like we’re often going to be “From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?” Moore’s Law: states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. analyzing the number of transistors in a current (or past) year, so I’ll signify that as C. Finally, we’ll want to focus on a key part of the Moore’s Law statement: that the progress of technology doubles every 2 years. Here we will use n, which is the number of years between F and C. It’s important to take 2 and multiply it by n over 2, because Moore’s Law specifies that the technology doubles every 2 years. F = numbers of transistors per IC in a future year C = numbers of transistors per IC in a current (or past) year n = number of years divided by 2 If you take all of this and put it together you get an equation that looks like this: F = C * 2^(n/2) We can use the aforementioned discussion prompt to get the numbers we want to plug in. Estimated # of transistors in 2016: ~600,000,000 = C

# of transistors in 2040: ??? = F Number of years: 2040-2016 = 24 = (n/2) F = 600,000,000 * 00 estimated transistors in 2040 “From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?” Moore’s Law: states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. The easiest wo be To approach this problem, I will put it into an equation so that I can solve for the number of transistors per IC in 2040, so the equation that I’m going to make can be equal to “F”. “C” will represent the transistors per IC in current year. I will use “n”, which is the number of years between F and C. It’s important to take 2 and multiply it by n over 2, because Moore’s Law specifies that the technology doubles every 2 years. F = numbers of transistors per IC in a future year C = number of transistors per IC in a current year n = number of years divided by 2 So now the equation looks like this: F = C * 2^(n/2) Estimated number of transistors in 2016: ~600,000,000 = C Number of transistors in 2040: ??? = F Number of years: 2040-2016 = 24 = n F = 600,000,000 * 2^(24/2) Simplify: F = 600,000,000 * 2^(12) F = 600,000,000 * 4096 Multiply: F = 2,457,600,000,000 is the estimated number of transistors per IC in 2040

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Part A : The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore’s Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? I will be using the same equation as before: F = C * 2^(n/2) F = numbers of transistors per IC in 1992 = ??? C = number of transistors per IC in 1972 = 4,000 Number of years: 1992-1972 = 20 = n F = 4,000 * 2^(20/2) Simplify: F = 4,000 * 2^(10) F = 4,000 * 1,024 Multiply: F = 4,096,000 is the estimated number of transistors per IC in 1992 Part B : From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2016. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? This is the same question that was asked to solve in the top part of the discussion question. Here is my input….. F = numbers of transistors per IC in a future year C = number of transistors per IC in a current year n = number of years divided by 2 So now the equation looks like this: F = C * 2^(n/2) Estimated number of transistors in 2016: ~600,000,000 = C

Number of transistors in 2040: ??? = F Number of years: 2040-2016 = 24 = n F = 600,000,000 * 2^(24/2) Simplify: F = 600,000,000 * 2^(12) F = 600,000,000 * 4096 Multiply: F = 2,457,600,000,000 is the estimated number of transistors per IC in 2040 Part C : Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? analyzing the number of transistors in a current (or past) year, so I’ll signify that as C. Finally, we’ll want to focus on a key part of the Moore’s Law statement: that the progress of technology

doubles every 2 years. Here we will use n, which is the number of years between F and C. It’s important to take 2 and multiply it by n over 2, because Moore’s Law specifies that the technology doubles every 2 years. F = numbers of transistors per IC in a future year

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C = numbers of transistors per IC in a current (or past) year n = number of years divided by 2 If you take all of this and put it together you get an equation that looks like this: F = C * 2^(n/2) We can use the aforementioned discussion prompt to get the numbers we want to plug in.

Estimated # of transistors in 2016: ~600,000,000 = C # of transistors in 2040: ??? = F Number of years: 2040- 2016 = 24 = (n/2) F = 600,000,000 * 2^(24/2) Simplify to: F = 600,000,000 * 2^(12) Simplify again: F= 600,000,000 * 4096 Multiply:

F = 2,457,600,000,000 estimated transistors in 20 40

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