PS6

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Brown University *

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1629

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Economics

Date

Jan 9, 2024

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2

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1 Econ 1629: Applied Research Methods Assignment 6: Fixed Effects Part I Democracy and development While many scholars argue that democracy fosters development (e.g., because it improves access to healthcare and education), others have questioned this given the recent economic success of non-democratic regimes, such as China. Imagine you have panel data for a large number of countries and years, including GDP per capita, a Democracy Index that takes values from 1 to 5 (where 5 is fully democratic), and several other variables related to economic development, such as total investment, infant mortality (share of children who die before age 5), and an indicator variable that takes value 1 if there was a violent conflict in the country during that year. 1. Considering this dataset: a. Write the regression relationship between GDP per capita and the Democracy Index, including any controls you think are necessary. b. What other factors should be included in this relationship? You may mention variables that are not listed in the dataset above. c. For each variable, decide whether it should be computed in logs (that is, ln x) or levels (that is, just x), and explain the reason for your decision. 2. Imagine you run the regression you wrote in 1.a. above. a. Interpret the coefficient on the Democracy Index. 3. A classmate suggests adding fixed effects to this regression. a. What dimension(s) of fixed effects could you add? b. What identification concerns would each dimension address? c. What identification concerns would each dimension not address? 4. Imagine you run the regression including the fixed effects your classmate suggests. You obtains the result that an additional unit in the Democracy Index results in a 10% increase in GDP per capita, controlling for the factors you described. The coefficient has a p-value of 0.000002. a. Based on this evidence, would you conclude that democracy fosters development? Why or why not? b. What additional evidence would make you more confident in reaching this conclusion? gap per capita B TB dem index Etotalinu Is infant mort BE violent con the logs should be used for variables likeapp per capita attotal investmentbecause they grow exponentially Infant mort nd democracy in a can be left in education should be included eve is because log could benot s significant A percent increase in democracy index is associated with an increase in GDP per capita controlling fo effects of regression Timee freq effects a country fixedeffect time would address trends that a fee countries nice economic trends country fixed e would address timeand country fixed effectwould not address reverse causalityomittedvariable bias and non linear mn unobserved facto relationshipsbetween democracy and development that affect bo democracy reco No would not conclude that becausealthough it has a statist significant positive association bet we these two ran a bus it is not enough t to be more confident w the conclusion additionalevidence such as more data over establish causal a longer period of timetoexaime relationshipovertime additionally qualitative research could help provecausality
2 Part II: Schooling and interpersonal trust We are interested in understanding whether schooling affects how much people trust one another. We will use data from the World Values Survey, a nationally representative survey conducted in a large number of countries. It captures a wide array of attitudes, beliefs, individual characteristics, etc. The dataset includes the following variables: country - Country of residence of the respondent urban - Indicator for urban area (vs. rural area) trust - Indicator for whether the respondent thinks most people can be trusted (1=yes) male - Indicator for the respondent s sex being male age - Respondent s age educ - Respondent s highest educational level achieved GDPpercap - GDP per capita in respondent s country of residence 1. Create an indicator variable called college for whether the respondent has a college degree or not. 2. Regress the indicator for trust on the indicator for college and interpret your result. 3. Do you think the above regression gives you the causal relationship between graduating college and trust? What are the factors that you think might cause problem in this case? Why? 4. Rerun your regression adding some controls: male , age , urban , and GDPpercap . How does the value and significance of the coefficient on college change? Why did it change? 5. Do you think it would be important to control for the respondent s country of residence? Why, and why isn t it enough to control for GDPpercap ? 6. Rerun your regression adding country fixed effects. (You should use the <areg> command with the absorb( ) option. Type help areg for details.) How does the value and significance of the coefficient on college change? Interpret the coefficient given the new set of controls. Write down the equation that you are estimating, and label all the variables. 7. Which variable can be omitted from the regression above without changing the result? Why? 8. Do you think we can claim this is an unbiased estimate of the effect of graduating college on trust? Can you think of an omitted variable that could be introducing bias, even after controlling for country fixed effects? Many correct possible answers here we will evaluate based on the explanation. o.io sa this result is statistically significant at p value it means being college educated in associate with a 102 increase in trust controlling for an e is I don't think it does Somefactors that may cause problems in this case could potentially be ours an example of this isfamily background personality traitsor cultural differences that could affect tru and college Oops It decreases slightly bit remainssignificant It changes because mom omittedvariables were added making result more adjusted yes Ithink it i r important because there are many factors that ooo s It remains significant but decreases again it means Being conge educated is assoc w a t.gg increase in trust controlling forall other factors trust 0.19130.584 college to 0133 male to ooo age 0.0028 urba GDP per capitacanbe omitted from the regression because it is coninear we already account forit with the other variables Yes wecanclaim it's a nonbiased estimate an omitted variable that could introduce bias are specific personality traits Fixed effect only help addressunobserved country level factors whereas individual level factors such asthese differing personality traits could leave there tobe a biasedestimate of trust
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