424_F2023_ProblemSet1_v1 (1) (1)

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Econ 424. ML for Economists Prediction Competition 1: Using Data for Economic Analysis September 6, 2023 Please do not write your name anywhere in your submission. I can see it on Learn. • Instead, please invent an anonymized name (such as BellKor , Datachamp , Joe97 ) that you will use in problem sets. Write that name at the top of your submission. (Again, I can still see your real name on Learn.) • This anonymized name enables us to construct a leaderboard for Question 1, which is an estimation competition • Best answers will be distributed anonymously to class. Students whose answer is selected will receive ten percentage point bonus points for problem set. Due on Thursday, September 15, 6pm. Please submit via Learn. Please submit the answer to question 1 in one CSV file and the answers to questions (2) and (3) in one PDF file . The top of the first page of your PDF must have the following six elements (and nothing else) 1. Your anonymized name. 2. Your answer to question 2 (a number, nothing else). 3. One sentence summary of how you arrived at the above answer. 4. Your answer to question 3 (a number, nothing else). 5. One sentence summary of how you arrived at the above answer. 6. Your answer to question 4 (one or two screenshots of your interactions with ChatGPT/GPT4. After these, please include in the PDF any code that you utilize. You can use any (or no) programming language/statistical software package to aid with Q2 and Q3. Q1 must be done without using computers for calculations. Collaboration is encouraged but everyone must run their own code and write up their own answers. An economy has 1,000,000 people, all adults. In this economy the government chooses randomly (using a lottery) how much education each person gets, and people in this economy always follow the government’s 1

directive in terms of how much education they get. After graduating, people are free to choose any job they can get (aside from education, it is a free market economy). People can also start businesses. Below are 100 observations on the lifetime earnings and years of education on a random sample of people in this economy. The table below has numbered observations on Years of Education for 20 more people in this economy. ObservationNumber YearsOfEducation 1 11.28278 2 13.68312 3 14.40669 4 15.96969 5 14.86386 6 15.33683 7 12.69982 8 11.447 9 11.87571 10 11.87264 11 15.14703 12 11.12808 13 15.11679 14 12.33917 15 16.24666 16 16.42583 17 15.69144 18 12.7121 2

19 14.64092 20 10.02925 Question 1 (8 points) Give a prediction for the lifetime earnings of each of these 20 people, in this same order. You are not allowed to use a computer program to calculate the predictions (you must eyeball the answers or use only visual aids). Submit your answers in a .CSV datafile (a flat text file, not word/pdf etc). One number on each line. 20 lines. Nothing else in the file, just 20 numbers . Note that this question is a prediction competition . Your grade depends solely on how close you are to the observed lifetime earnings for these 20 individuals. Your anonymized name and accuracy of your predictions will be displayed on class leaderboard on Learn. Question 2 (0.5 points) Jimmy is one individual in this economy. Government assigned Jimmy 12 years of education. How much higher would Jimmy’s expected lifetime earnings be if government instead assigned Jimmy 13 years of education? Question 3 . (0.5 points) How much would the average lifetime earnings increase in this economy if govern- ment assigned everyone 17 years of education? Question 4 . (1 point) Ask ChatGPT/GPT4/Other LLM, how to answer the above three questions. You can utilize the answers in your own answers to Q1, Q2 and Q3 if you like, or ignore them. You still cannot use computers to calculate answers to Q1, please tell this constraint to ChatGPT. 3

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