civl2010 slides - sustainable systems 2b - tragedy of the commons

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CIVL 2010 Environmental Engineering - 2021 Sustainable Systems IIb: Tragedy of the Commons Prof Abbas El-Zein School of Civil Engineering University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia
14 September 2003
Was Hardin Wrong (I)? LA Times
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Was Hardin Wrong (II): Enter Elinor Oström How have different groups managed common-pool resources? Irrigation systems (Nepal, Japan, Switzerland) Fisheries (Indonesia, USA)
Incentive for more harvesting Difficulty of excluding potential beneficiaries, i.e., open access Subtractability of Use: the more it is used, the less there of it Conditions that Lead to Tragedy of the Commons
Was Hardin Wrong (III): Enter Elinor Oström
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Incentive for more harvesting (oxygen versus ocean fish) Difficulty of excluding potential beneficiaries, i.e., open access (oxygen versus national park) Subtractability of Use: the more it is used, the less there of it (oxygen versus ocean fish) Erodability (the less there is of it, the less it grows) Lack of (or delayed ) feedback from stock to outflow Escalation Conditions that Lead to Tragedy of the Commons
Examples of Resources Characteristics Oxygen in the Air Ice Cream in a Super- market Security in a City Public Parks in a City Ground- water Ocean Fish Stocks Non- Excludable? High Low High High High High Subtractable? Low High Low Low High High Erodable? Low No High No No High Delayed Feedback? Low Variable High Variable High High Escalation? Low High Low Low Variable High Tragedy of the Commons
Critique of Tragedy of the Commons Hardin is really describing not a “commons” regime but an “open access” regime (as Hardin himself acknowledged later) ◦ no authority ◦ no property rights ◦ no link to resource abundance ◦ people do not talk to each other
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Activity: SD Model of Covid-19 Island state, 1M people Borders closed Planning: ◦ How fast can disease spread from 1 infection? ◦ How many deaths? ◦ What is the peak infections and how soon?
Activity: SD Model of Covid-19 Initial Model ◦ 1 Stock: number of infected people p ◦ 1 Inflow: infection rate I ◦ 2 Outflows: Death rate Od (stock-dependent) Recovery rate Or (stock-dependent) ◦ Growth is logistic, limited by total population ◦ Assume no lockdown, population is constant at 1M, and no immunity is formed after contracting and recovering from the disease. Build initial model and run – does it work? Build a better model
Assignment Tragedy of the Commons System Dynamics Model Aims ◦ understand key features and risks in TotC systems. ◦ identify ways in which resources under TotC can be managed sustainably. ◦ critically appraise System Dynamics as a tool for addressing sustainability.
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Tasks 1. Download totc.mdl 2. Develop sustainable system a) without changing structure (5 steps) to follow – i to v) (30%) b) by changing structure (4 steps) (40%) 3. Can GHG emissions be analysed as a TotC problem? (15%) 4. Critically appraise system dynamics (15%)
Sustainable Systems A sustainable regime is defined here as one which, within the timeframe of the simulations (0-200 years), reaches an equilibrium characterised by the following: a) renewable resource s 1 ≥ 10% of maximum capacity c 5 , and b) annual net profit f 4 ≥ 10% of production capital f 3 > 0 Conditions a) and b) need only be achieved at equilibrium.
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Submission Submit your assignment on Canvas (1 submission per group) including: a) a report with i. a cover page showing group number and SIDs of group members (but not their names so as to ensure marking anonymity); ii. main body with answers to questions in sections 2 to 4 (The report, excluding cover page, should not exceed 8 pages - reports in excess of this limit will NOT be marked). and a) files totc1.mdl, totc2.mdl, base scenario.vdx, sustainable1.vdx, sustainable2.vdx.
Model Details

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