7-3 Milestone 3

docx

School

Southern New Hampshire University *

*We aren’t endorsed by this school

Course

520

Subject

Business

Date

Feb 20, 2024

Type

docx

Pages

Uploaded by DeanRiver5511

MILESTONE THREE 1 DAT 520 DECISION METHODS & MODELING January 25, 2024 7-3 Final Project Milestone 3

MILESTONE THREE 2 A. Summarize My research question “What in game activities most likely contribute to winning in the NFL?” has proven difficult for me to get a solid decision tree model formed. This question calls for a bottom-up modeling style, meaning I need to use a decision tree chart for my model. I have been continuously struggling to get a chart to even establish for me. My target variable is set as ‘Outcome’ from the NFL game logs and this represents whether the selected team Won or Lost. Input variables have included: Touchdown (TD) passes, rushing TD, pass yards, rush yards, and receiving yards. I used several different combinations of these input variables to manipulate the system enough to create the decision chart, these attempts remained unsuccessful. I initially thought the data set I was using may be too large and that was the reasoning for my constant error with the decision tree, so I tried minimizing my data set and input

MILESTONE THREE 3 variables. I was able to get a small chart created this way, so I made some progress, however I need to continue to adjust and add more variables to see if I am able to establish a larger and more accurate chart. The image shown below is the model I ended up with this week. B. Evaluate The current results clearly are not very reasonable with the given input variables. The chart shows that the team with the most passing completions wins the game 59% of the time. While the result seems accurate and I can agree that pass completions and touchdowns contribute to winning, I cannot get fully reasonable and accurate results without other input variables in the chart. C. Leverage Tools I plan to use to determine the accuracy of my decision model include PowerBI, NFL Stats, and the game logs provided for data sets. As stated above, the current model is

Your preview ends here

Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version

Access to all documents
Unlimited textbook solutions
24/7 expert homework help

MILESTONE THREE 4 accurate yet does not give enough input variables to conclude feasible research for the question at hand. D. Identify As it stands, my model is currently missing several elements since I am still not able to get an accurate chart loaded. I am continuing to mess with the system and input variables. Changing the target variable would not be beneficial, since the main goal here is to determine what activities lead to winning, Win or Lose would be the variable. E. Outline Common errors associated with creating a bottom-up decision tree model include: Insufficient data, Overfitting, Incorrect assumptions, Lack of validation, and disregarding model interpretation. To avoid insufficient data, we need to ensure data sets are relevant & accurate. To avoid overfitting the data set needs to be simplified to keep the model from becoming overly complex. It is essential to split the data into training and test sets to evaluate the model’s performance and accuracy.

Related Documents

McCubbin Mod 2 Assn.docx

RES 497 Week 3 Assignment.pdf

RES 497 Week 2 Assignment.docx

W09 Paper- Discussion Leader.docx

W09 Group Project.docx

10-1 Module Ten Lab.docx

4-2 Module Four Lab.docx

OPSCB574 Reflection 1.docx

Task 3.pdf

BUSS230 - SandraC-Portfolio Project week 4 .docx

Core-Mark inventory - suggested solution (1).pdf

IMG_0991.jpeg

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:Cengage,

Management, Loose-Leaf Version

Management

ISBN:9781305969308

Author:Richard L. Daft

Publisher:South-Western College Pub

MARKETING 2018

Marketing

ISBN:9780357033753

Author:Pride

Publisher:CENGAGE L

Principles of Management

Management

ISBN:9780998625768

Author:OpenStax

Publisher:OpenStax College

Marketing

ISBN:9780357033791

Author:Pride, William M

Publisher:South Western Educational Publishing

Understanding Management (MindTap Course List)

Management

ISBN:9781305502215

Author:Richard L. Daft, Dorothy Marcic

Publisher:Cengage Learning

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Management, Loose-Leaf Version
Management
ISBN:9781305969308
Author:Richard L. Daft
Publisher:South-Western College Pub
MARKETING 2018
Marketing
ISBN:9780357033753
Author:Pride
Publisher:CENGAGE L
Principles of Management
Management
ISBN:9780998625768
Author:OpenStax
Publisher:OpenStax College
Marketing
Marketing
ISBN:9780357033791
Author:Pride, William M
Publisher:South Western Educational Publishing
Understanding Management (MindTap Course List)
Management
ISBN:9781305502215
Author:Richard L. Daft, Dorothy Marcic
Publisher:Cengage Learning