Terrorism case study assignment F

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Week 2 Case Study Assignment Elijah Washington Terrorism Investigation– CRMJ450 May 12, 2023

Could the 9/11 terrorist attack been prevented? The 9/11 commission report explains that the 9/11 attacks were a shock, but they should not have come as a surprise. Islamic extremists had given plenty of warnings that they meant to kill Americans indiscriminately and in large numbers (Falkenrath, 2004). Based on the report, during the spring and summer of 2001, United States intelligence agencies received a stream of warnings about an attack al-Qaeda planned. The United States administration, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) received multiple prior warnings from foreign governments and intelligence services, including France, Germany, the UK, Israel, Jordan, Afghanistan, Egypt, Morocco, and Russia (Falkenrath, 2004). The warnings varied in their level of detail, but all stated that they believed an Al-Qaeda attack inside the United States was imminent. Royal United Services Institute (2019) cites these warnings, suggesting that some must have been deliberately ignored. Some of these warnings include the following: March 2001 – Italian intelligence warns of an al-Qaeda plot in the United States involving a massive strike involving aircraft, based on their wiretap of al-Qaeda cell in Milan. July 2001 –Jordanian intelligence told US officials that al-Qaeda was planning an attack on American soil, and Egyptian intelligence warned the CIA that 20 al-Qaeda Jihadists were in the United States and that four of them were receiving flight training (Royal United Services Institute, 2019).August 2001 – The Israeli Mossad gives the CIA a list of 19 terrorists living in the US and says that they appear to be planning to carry out an attack in the near future ( Public Broadcasting Service, 2017). August 2001 – The United Kingdom is warned three times of an imminent al-Qaeda attack in the United States, the third specifying multiple airplane hijackings. According to the Sunday Herald, the report is passed on to President Bush shortly. September 2001 – Egyptian intelligence warns American officials that al-Qaeda is in the advanced stages of executing a

significant operation against an American target, probably within the US (Department of Justice, 2017). On May 1, 2001, the CIA informed the White House that a group presently in the United States was in the process of planning a terrorist attack (Shenon, 2004). June 29, 2001; The President's Daily Brief on June 29, 2001, stated that the United States was not the target of a disinformation campaign by Usama Bin Laden. The document repeated evidence surrounding the threat, including an interview that month with a Middle Eastern journalist in which Bin Laden aides warned of a coming attack, as well as competitive pressures that the terrorist leader was feeling, given the number of Islamists being recruited for the separatist Russian region of Chechnya (Shenon, 2004). The CIA reiterated that the attacks were anticipated to be near-term and have dramatic consequences. On July 10, 2001, J.Cofer Black, CIA's counterterrorism chief, and George Tenet, CIA's director, met with Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Advisor, to inform her about communications intercepts and other top-secret intelligence showing the increasing likelihood that al-Qaeda would soon attack the United States. Rice listened but was unconvinced, having other priorities on which to focus (Shenon, 2004). Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld questioned the information suggesting it was a deception meant to gauge the US response (Public Broadcasting Service, 2017). On August 6, 2001, the president's daily briefing, entitled Bin Laden determined to strike in the US warned that bin Laden was planning to exploit his operatives' access to the US to mount a terrorist strike: FBI information indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country, consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attack. Rice responded to the claims about the briefing in a statement before the 9/11 Commission, stating the brief was not prompted by any specific threat information and did not raise the possibility that terrorists might use airplanes as missiles (Department of Justice, 2017).

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9/11 could have been prevented, but the Bush administration was so incapable, as well as the other Agencies. I believe that the failure to predict and act against these threats was a consequence of intelligence agencies not sharing their information with one another and the lack of a central analytical and decision-making focus. On receipt of intelligence indicating the possibility of a terrorist attack, the first action that might be expected from any government would be the calling together of the heads of the intelligence agencies to establish its provenance. This should result in confirmation of its quality and provide the opportunity of piecing together the strands from a variety of sources and activating further intelligence gathering and analysis. Threats against transport systems are a regular event, and the potential shutdown on every occasion would have a major negative impact on even the strongest economies. However, the decision to shut down transport systems is the final and most extreme of the courses of action available and one that is only considered once the credibility of the intelligence, including the probable date for any attack, has been established. In short, there were preventive measures the US government could have taken, even if the information received was patchy, and even if a decision was taken not to resort to radical courses such as a complete overhaul of all the airline transport arrangements.

References Department of Justice. (2017). A Review of the FBI's Handling of Intelligence Information Prior to the September 11 Attacks. Special report: A review of the FBI's handling of intelligence information prior to the September 11 attacks. https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/archive/special/0506/chapter5.htm Falkenrath, R. A. (2004). The 9/11 Commission Report. Public Broadcasting Service. (2017). Why did US intelligence fail September 11th? | looking for answers | frontline. PBS. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/terrorism/fail/ Royal United Services Institute. (2019, November 13). Could 11 September have been prevented? Royal United Services Institute. https://www.rusi.org/publication/could-11- P. September-have-been-prevented Shenon, (2004, April 5). Leaders of 9/11 panel say attacks were probably preventable. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/05/us/leaders-of-9-11-panel-say-attacks- were-probably-preventable.html

Terrorism case study assignment F

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