MSTR 31111

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MSTR 31111 INTELLIGENCE DRIVEN DECISION MAKING Risk Management Process Name Autumn 2023 Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Looming Threat to National Security The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) - nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons - poses a significant and enduring threat to national security (Reynolds, 2019). The use

of these weapons could result in catastrophic consequences, including widespread loss of life, extensive destruction of infrastructure, and severe environmental damage with potentially devastating impacts on the economy, and public health (Gosden & Gardener, 2005). The international community began to take steps to address the proliferation of WMDs in the 1970s and 1980s, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed in 1968 to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons ( Kibaroglu & Gurzel, 2011) . The focus then shifted to preventing the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons, and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) was signed in 1993, while the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) was signed in 1972 to prohibit the development, production, stockpiling, use, and transfer of chemical and biological weapons (Edward et al., 2022). These international agreements have played a crucial role in curbing WMD proliferation. However, challenges remain, particularly in ensuring full compliance with these treaties and addressing the emerging threat posed by non-state actors. Periodically, a national strategy is released to outline the approach to countering the proliferation of WMDs. Laws have been enacted to regulate and control the development, possession, and use of WMDs. The DHS plays a key role in efforts to prevent and respond to WMD threats, while FEMA is involved in coordinating responses to emergencies, including those involving WMD incidents. The Department of State and the Department of Defense are involved in international efforts to prevent the proliferation of WMDs, and intelligence agencies play a critical role in monitoring and assessing global WMD threats. Implications The proliferation of WMDs could have several specific implications for the nation, including a direct threat to territory and population due to the potential for widespread death and destruction,

the undermining of alliances and partnerships if allies and partners are threatened by WMDs, which could make them less willing to cooperate on other issues, and increased instability in regions of strategic importance such as the Middle East and North Asia. The threat of WMD proliferation also has specific implications for individuals, including the potential for widespread fear and anxiety, serious health risks, and the possibility of extensive social disruption, involving the displacement of large populations, breakdowns in law and order, and the loss of essential services following WMD attacks; furthermore, the proliferation of WMDs can erode international order and make it more difficult for states to cooperate on global challenges, as the fear that WMDs could be used to blackmail or coerce other states can undermine international norms and institutions, and the proliferation of WMDs could erode international norms against WMD use, making it more likely that states will use them The threat of WMD proliferation has had a significant impact on policy and public discourse. The nation has invested heavily in defense and non-proliferation measures, and international organizations have dedicated resources to addressing the threat. The public has also become increasingly aware of the dangers posed by WMDs, leading to calls for stronger non- proliferation measures and greater international cooperation. Mitigation Strategies Mitigating the threat of WMD proliferation requires a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses the various dimensions of the problem. Here's a comprehensive strategy to address

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this critical issue: 1. Strengthening International Non-Proliferation Norms and Agreements 2. Enhancing Export Controls on WMD-Related Materials and Technologies 3. Engaging with Non-State Actors to Prevent WMD Acquisition 4. Strengthening International Cooperation to Share Intelligence and Coordinate Non- Proliferation Efforts 5. Developing a Rapid Response Framework: ○ Establish a rapid response framework to effectively respond to WMD proliferation incidents or threats, and pre-plan response measures, including diplomatic, military, and humanitarian actions. 6. Addressing Root Causes of WMD Proliferation: ○ Promote economic development, social justice, and political stability in regions prone to instability and conflict, which can serve as breeding grounds for WMD proliferation. ○ Address state insecurity and geopolitical tensions that could motivate countries to pursue WMDs and foster dialogue and cooperation among regional and international actors to resolve conflicts peacefully and prevent the emergence of new proliferation threats. By implementing these measures, the nation can significantly reduce the threat of WMD proliferation and safeguard global security. References [1] Reynolds C. (2019). Global Health Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction Chapter. Global Health Security: Recognizing Vulnerabilities, Creating Opportunities, 187–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1_9

[2] Gosden, C., & Gardener, D. (2005). Weapons of mass destruction--threats and responses. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 331(7513), 397–400. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.331.7513.397 [3] Kibaroglu, M., & Gurzel, A. (2011). An Overview of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Proliferation. Response to Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism, 11-22. [4] Edwards, B., Novossiolova, T., Crowley, M., Whitby, S., Dando, M., & Shang, L. (2022). Meeting the challenges of chemical and biological weapons: strengthening the chemical and biological disarmament and non-proliferation regimes. Frontiers in Political Science , 4 , 805426. [5] Rudin, L. The Common Problem: Weapons of Mass Destruction and Anticipatory Self-defence in International Law.

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