M3-Class Activity 1

|error| error^2 |error|/D 0 0 0 149 22201 0.10478199718706 462.4 213813.76 0.257604456824513 126.56 16017.4336 0.09098490294752 126.064 15892.132096 0.07913622096673 53.6384 2877.07795456 0.034142838956079 34.81696 1212.220703642 0.023149574468085 21.109824 445.624669311 0.013654478654593 123.6658944 15293.25343775 0.074632404586602 340.80046336 116144.9558264 0.274396508341385 227.519721984 51765.22389168 0.135913812415771 114.5118331904 13112.95994063 0.069317090308959 b) c) 64.29290008576 4133.577001438 0.042325806508071 463.4242599485 214762.0447089 0.229304433423327 2020 forecast= 2020 forecast= 173.9454440309 30257.0174991 0.110863890395713 161.6327335815 26125.14056502 0.088083233559387 MAD= 177.1875 MAD= 176.833715 372.0203598511 138399.1481438 0.272342869583539 MSE= 49504.27344 MSE= 51092.4618 11.78778408933 138.9518537367 0.007362763328752 MAPE= 0.1176711369 MAPE= 0.115529 185.9273295464 34568.97187226 0.132050660189205 323.5563977278 104688.7425106 0.270532105123613 d) Which model is the best? The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

error^2 |error|/D 0 0 22201 0 139129 0.083008357 163216 0.268152408 40804 0.253609542 484 0.128580522 4489 0.01462766 1764 0.043337646 12321 0.025347013 172225 0.089371981 186624 0.2479092 484 0.261501211 b) c) 17689 0.014483213 252004 0.065809005 2020 forecast= 1392.75 2020 forecast 1196 204304 0.319949012 70756 0.246321526 MAD= 177.1875 MAD= 235.05 219961 0.194729136 MSE= 49504.27344 MSE= 82293.65 55225 0.292941911 MAPE= 11.77% MAPE= 14.38976994 37249 0.166903409 44944 0.161371237 d) 1645873 2.877953987 Which model is the best? Moving average The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

2000 ge ng st?

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error^2 |error|/D 583390.44 0.6 368788.998 0.42706048 543711.567 0.41078997 1476.15787 0.02762099 50648.6188 0.14127588 12776.1173 0.07194875 0.67058542 0.00054448 1805.51361 0.02748469 18630.8308 0.08237465 110957.688 0.26819897 53888.1107 0.13867272 13755.2733 0.07099448 b) c) 3922.55119 0.04123125 215687.642 0.22979804 2020 forecast= 1392.75 2020 forecast= 30049.1472 0.11048241 26241.363 0.08827894 MAD= 177.1875 MAD= 255.137718 138238.871 0.27218513 MSE= 49504.27344 MSE= 115665.517 142.016555 0.00744352 MAPE= 6.043098064 MAPE= 17.0943705 34540.1326 0.13199557 104658.626 0.27049319 d) Which model is the best? The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

|error| error^2 |error|/D 149 22201 0 373 139129 0.083008356545961 404 163216 0.268152408339324 202 40804 0.253609541745135 22 484 0.128580521960535 67 4489 0.014627659574468 42 1764 0.043337645536869 111 12321 0.025347012673506 415 172225 0.089371980676329 432 186624 0.247909199522103 22 484 0.261501210653753 b) c) 133 17689 0.014483212639895 502 252004 0.06580900544285 2020 forecast= 1392.75 2020 forecast= 452 204304 0.319949012109624 266 70756 0.246321525885559 MAD= 177.1875 MAD= 469 219961 0.194729136163982 MSE= 49504.27344 MSE= 235 55225 0.292941911305434 MAPE= 11.76711369 MAPE= 193 37249 0.166903409090909 212 44944 0.161371237458194 0 d) Which model is the best? MAD sum of mod error / total no of mod error mse error 2 sum / total mape mod error bar d / total b for 0.4 The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

MAD= MSE= MAPE=

mchandra Reddy, Salam Year Attendance MA(4)-predict error |error| error^2 |error|/D ES(0.4)-predict error |error| 2000 1273 1273 0 0 2001 1422 1273 -149 149 2002 1795 1332.6 -462.4 462.4 2003 1391 1517.56 126.56 126.56 2004 1593 1470.25 122.75 122.75 15067.5625 0.077055869428751 1466.936 -126.064 126.064 2005 1571 1550.25 20.75 20.75 430.5625 0.013208147676639 1517.3616 -53.6384 53.6384 2006 1504 1587.5 -83.5 83.5 6972.25 0.055518617021277 1538.81696 34.81696 34.81696 2007 1546 1514.75 31.25 31.25 976.5625 0.020213454075032 1524.890176 -21.109824 21.109824 2008 1657 1553.5 103.5 103.5 10712.25 0.062462281231141 1533.3341056 -123.665894 123.665894 2009 1242 1569.5 -327.5 327.5 107256.25 0.263687600644122 1582.80046336 340.800463 340.800463 2010 1674 1487.25 186.75 186.75 34875.5625 0.111559139784946 1446.480278016 -227.519722 227.519722 2011 1652 1529.75 122.25 122.25 14945.0625 0.074001210653753 1537.4881668096 -114.511833 114.511833 2012 1519 1556.25 -37.25 37.25 1387.5625 0.024522712310731 1583.29290008576 64.2929001 64.2929001 2013 2021 1521.75 499.25 499.25 249250.563 0.247031172686789 1557.57574005146 -463.42426 463.42426 2014 1569 1716.5 -147.5 147.5 21756.25 0.094008922880816 1742.94544403087 173.945444 173.945444 2015 1835 1690.25 144.75 144.75 20952.5625 0.078882833787466 1673.36726641852 -161.632734 161.632734 2016 1366 1736 -370 370 136900 0.27086383601757 1738.02035985111 372.02036 372.02036 2017 1601 1697.75 -96.75 96.75 9360.5625 0.060430980637102 1589.21221591067 -11.7877841 11.7877841 2018 1408 1592.75 -184.75 184.75 34132.5625 0.131214488636364 1593.9273295464 185.92733 185.92733 2019 1196 1552.5 -356.5 356.5 127092.25 0.298076923076923 1519.55639772784 323.556398 323.556398 1390.1338386367 0.4

error^2 |error|/D 0 22201 15.612517580872 213813.76 119.116300835655 16017.4336 11.5150493170381 15892.1321 9.97622855994979 2877.07795 1.83136725306175 1212.2207 0.80599780827235 445.624669 0.28824364121021 15293.2534 9.22948306442485 116144.956 93.51445718711 51765.2239 30.9230728146217 13112.9599 7.93762708270339 b) c) 4133.577 2.72124884887263 214762.045 106.265237362126 2020 forecast= 1392.75 2020 forecast 1390.13384 30257.0175 19.2842686418724 26125.1406 14.2371338228994 MAD= 177.1875 MAD= 176.833715 138399.148 101.317092345353 MSE= 49504.27344 MSE= 51092.4618 138.951854 0.08679066442017 MAPE= 11.77% MAPE= 34.5655967 34568.9719 24.5518266138182 104688.743 87.5323934035256 d) Which model is the best? Moving average The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

Names: salam Year Attendance MA(4)-predict error |error| error^2 |error|/D #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2000 1273 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2001 1422 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2002 1795 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2003 1391 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2004 1593 1470.25 -122.75 122.75 15067.5625 0.07705587 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2005 1571 1550.25 -20.75 20.75 430.5625 0.01320815 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2006 1504 1587.5 83.5 83.5 6972.25 0.05551862 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2007 1546 1514.75 -31.25 31.25 976.5625 0.02021345 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2008 1657 1553.5 -103.5 103.5 10712.25 0.06246228 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2009 1242 1569.5 327.5 327.5 107256.25 0.2636876 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2010 1674 1487.25 -186.75 186.75 34875.5625 0.11155914 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2011 1652 1529.75 -122.25 122.25 14945.0625 0.07400121 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2012 1519 1556.25 37.25 37.25 1387.5625 0.02452271 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2013 2021 1521.75 -499.25 499.25 249250.563 0.24703117 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2014 1569 1716.5 147.5 147.5 21756.25 0.09400892 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2015 1835 1690.25 -144.75 144.75 20952.5625 0.07888283 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2016 1366 1736 370 370 136900 0.27086384 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2017 1601 1697.75 96.75 96.75 9360.5625 0.06043098 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2018 1408 1592.75 184.75 184.75 34132.5625 0.13121449 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2019 1196 1552.5 356.5 356.5 127092.25 0.29807692 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.4

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! b) c) #VALUE! #VALUE! 2020 forecast= 2020 forecast= #VALUE! #VALUE! MAD= 708.75 MAD= #VALUE! MSE= 198017.0938 MSE= #VALUE! MAPE= MAPE= #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! d) Which model is the best? The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

Names: Year Attendance MA(4)-predict error |error| error^2 |error|/D ES(0.4)-predict error 2000 1273 2001 1422 2002 1795 2003 1391 2004 1593 1470.25 122.75 122.75 15067.5625 2005 1571 1550.25 20.75 20.75 430.5625 0.013208147676639 2006 1504 1587.5 -83.5 83.5 6972.25 0.055518617021277 2007 1546 1514.75 31.25 31.25 976.5625 0.020213454075032 2008 1657 1553.5 103.5 103.5 10712.25 0.062462281231141 2009 1242 1569.5 -327.5 327.5 107256.25 0.263687600644122 2010 1674 1487.25 186.75 186.75 34875.5625 0.111559139784946 2011 1652 1529.75 122.25 122.25 14945.0625 0.074001210653753 2012 1519 1556.25 -37.25 37.25 1387.5625 0.024522712310731 2013 2021 1521.75 499.25 499.25 249250.5625 0.247031172686789 2014 1569 1716.5 -147.5 147.5 21756.25 0.094008922880816 2015 1835 1690.25 144.75 144.75 20952.5625 0.078882833787466 2016 1366 1736 -370 370 136900 0.27086383601757 2017 1601 1697.75 -96.75 96.75 9360.5625 0.060430980637102 2018 1408 1592.75 -184.75 184.75 34132.5625 0.131214488636364 2019 1196 1552.5 -356.5 356.5 127092.25 0.298076923076923

|error| error^2 |error|/D b) c) 2020 forecast= 2020 forecast= MAD= MAD= MSE= MSE= MAPE= MAPE= d) Which model is the best? The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?

Names: Year Attendance MA(4)-predict error |error| error^2 |error|/D ES(0.4)-predict error |error| 2000 1273 2001 1422 2002 1795 2003 1391 2004 1593 1470.25 122.75 122.75 15067.5625 0.077055869428751 2005 1571 1550.25 20.75 20.75 430.5625 0.013208147676639 2006 1504 1587.5 -83.5 83.5 6972.25 0.055518617021277 2007 1546 1514.75 31.25 31.25 976.5625 0.020213454075032 2008 1657 1553.5 103.5 103.5 10712.25 0.062462281231141 2009 1242 1569.5 -327.5 327.5 107256.25 0.263687600644122 2010 1674 1487.25 186.75 186.75 34875.5625 0.111559139784946 2011 1652 1529.75 122.25 122.25 14945.0625 0.074001210653753 2012 1519 1556.25 -37.25 37.25 1387.5625 0.024522712310731 2013 2021 1521.75 499.25 499.25 249250.563 0.247031172686789 2014 1569 1716.5 -147.5 147.5 21756.25 0.094008922880816 2015 1835 1690.25 144.75 144.75 20952.5625 0.078882833787466 2016 1366 1736 -370 370 136900 0.27086383601757 2017 1601 1697.75 -96.75 96.75 9360.5625 0.060430980637102 2018 1408 1592.75 -184.75 184.75 34132.5625 0.131214488636364 2019 1196 1552.5 -356.5 356.5 127092.25 0.298076923076923

error^2 |error|/D b) c) 2020 forecast= 2020 forecast= MAD= MAD= MSE= MSE= MAPE= MAPE= d) Which model is the best? The following data shows the number of baseball game attendance in a stadium from 2000 to 2019. a) Plot the data b) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using single moving average with N = 4. What is your forecast for year 2020? c) Develop a spreadsheet model for forecasting attendance using exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. What is your forecast for year 2020? d) Using MAD, MSE and MAPE, find which of the methods used in (a) and (b) is the best?