Chapter 9, Problem 71SE

During the 2004 election year, new polling results were reported daily. In an IBD/TIPP poll of 910 adults, 503 respondents reported that they were optimistic about the national outlook, and President Bush’s leadership index jumped 4.7 points to 55.3 (Investor’s Business Daily, January 14, 2004).

1. a. What is the sample proportion of respondents who are optimistic about the national outlook?
2. b. A campaign manager wants to claim that this poll indicates that the majority of adults are optimistic about the national outlook. Construct a hypothesis test so that rejection of the null hypothesis will permit the conclusion that the proportion optimistic is greater than 50%.
3. c. Use the polling data to compute the p-value for the hypothesis test in part (b). Explain to the manager what this p-value means about the level of significance of the results.