
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781118539712
Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: WILEY
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Question
Chapter 8.2, Problem 27E
a.
To determine
Find missing values and fill the quantities.
b.
To determine
Obtain a 95% confidence interval on the population mean.
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
Chapter 8 Solutions
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers
Ch. 8.1 - 8-1. For a normal population with known variance...Ch. 8.1 - 8-2. For a normal population with known variance...Ch. 8.1 - 8-3. Consider the one-sided confidence interval...Ch. 8.1 - 8-4. A confidence interval estimate is desired for...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 5ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 6ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 7ECh. 8.1 - 8-8. Following are two confidence interval...Ch. 8.1 - 8-9. Suppose that n = 100 random samples of water...Ch. 8.1 - 8-10. Past experience has indicated that the...
Ch. 8.1 - 8-11. The yield of a chemical process is being...Ch. 8.1 - 8-12. The diameter of holes for a cable harness is...Ch. 8.1 - 8-13. A manufacturer produces piston rings for an...Ch. 8.1 - 8-14. The life in hours of a 75-watt light bulb is...Ch. 8.1 - 8-15. A civil engineer is analyzing the...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 16ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 17ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 18ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 19ECh. 8.1 - 8-20. If the sample size n is doubled, by how much...Ch. 8.1 - 8-21. Go Tutorial An article in the Journal of...Ch. 8.1 - 8-22. Ishikawa et al. (Journal of Bioscience and...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 23ECh. 8.2 - 8-24. Find the values of the following...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 25ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 26ECh. 8.2 - 8-27. A random sample has been taken from a normal...Ch. 8.2 - 8-28. A random sample has been taken from a normal...Ch. 8.2 - 8-29. A research engineer for a tire manufacturer...Ch. 8.2 - 8-30. An Izod impact test was performed on 20...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 31ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 32ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 33ECh. 8.2 - 8-34. An article in the Journal of Composite...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 35ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 36ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 37ECh. 8.2 - 8-38. A particular brand of diet margarine was...Ch. 8.2 - 8-39. The compressive strength of concrete is...Ch. 8.2 - 8-40. A machine produces metal rods used in an...Ch. 8.2 - 8-41. An article in Computers & Electrical...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 42ECh. 8.2 - 8-43. An article in Nuclear Engineering...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 44ECh. 8.2 - 8-45. A healthcare provider monitors the number of...Ch. 8.3 - 8-46. Q Determine the values of the following...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 47ECh. 8.3 - 8-48. A rivet is to be inserted into a hole. A...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 49ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 50ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 51ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 52ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 53ECh. 8.3 - 8-54. An article in Cancer Research [“Analyses of...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 55ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 56ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 57ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 58ECh. 8.4 - 8-59. The fraction of defective integrated...Ch. 8.4 - Prob. 60ECh. 8.4 - 8-61. The 2004 presidential election exit polls...Ch. 8.4 - 8-62. Of 1000 randomly selected cases of lung...Ch. 8.4 - 8-63. An article in the Journal of the American...Ch. 8.4 - 8-64. A random sample of 50 suspension helmets...Ch. 8.4 - 8-65. The Arizona Department of Transportation...Ch. 8.4 - 8-66. A study is to be conducted of the percentage...Ch. 8.4 - 8-67. The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has used...Ch. 8.4 - Prob. 68ECh. 8.4 - Prob. 69ECh. 8.4 - Prob. 70ECh. 8.4 - Prob. 72ECh. 8.6 - 8-73. Go Tutorial Consider the tire-testing data...Ch. 8.6 - 8-74. Consider the Izod impact test described in...Ch. 8.6 - 8-75. Consider the syrup-dispensing measurements...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 76ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 77ECh. 8.6 - 8-78. Consider the margarine test described in...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 79ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 80ECh. 8.6 - 8-81. Consider the test on the compressive...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 82ECh. 8.6 - 8-83. Consider the fuel rod enrichment data...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 84ECh. 8.6 - 8-85. Consider the tire-testing data in Exercise...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 86ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 87ECh. 8.6 - 8-88. Consider the margarine test described in...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 89ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 90ECh. 8.6 - 8-91. Consider the television tube brightness data...Ch. 8.6 - Prob. 92ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 93ECh. 8.6 - Prob. 94ECh. 8 - Prob. 95SECh. 8 - 8-96. A normal population has a known mean of 50...Ch. 8 - 8-97. A normal population has known mean μ = 50...Ch. 8 - 8-98. An article in the Journal of Sports Science...Ch. 8 - 8-99. The article “Mix Design for Optimal Strength...Ch. 8 - 8-100. An operating system for a personal computer...Ch. 8 - 8-101. Consider the hemoglobin data in Exercise...Ch. 8 - Prob. 102SECh. 8 - 8-103. The maker of a shampoo knows that customers...Ch. 8 - 8-104. During the 1999 and 2000 baseball seasons,...Ch. 8 - Prob. 105SECh. 8 - 8-106 An article in the ASCE Journal of Energy...Ch. 8 - 8-107. The tar content in 30 samples of cigar...Ch. 8 - Prob. 108SECh. 8 - Prob. 109SECh. 8 - Prob. 110SECh. 8 - 8-111. An article in the Journal of Applied...Ch. 8 - Prob. 112SECh. 8 - Prob. 113SECh. 8 - Prob. 114SECh. 8 - Prob. 115SECh. 8 - Prob. 116SECh. 8 - Prob. 117SECh. 8 - Prob. 118SECh. 8 - Prob. 119SE
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