Chapter 8.1, Problem 9MS

A card deal stick. Remove three cards from a deck of regular playing cards— a king and two aces. Have a friend act as the dealer. The dealer shuffles these three cards and places them facedown on a table, side by side, without looki ng at them. Once the cards are on the table, the dealer peeks under each card so that the location of the king is known to the dealer but not to you. Point to a card. The dealer then turns over one of the other two cards to reveal one of the aces. Stick with your original guess, turn over that card, and record whether you chose the king. Have the dealer scramble the cards again and repeat the scenario—again, don’t switch—and record the result. Repeat this experiment 50 times (you can get very quick at it). What percentage of the time did you choose the king?