Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning From Data, Books a la Carte Edition (4th Edition)
4th Edition
ISBN: 9780133860825
Author: Alan Agresti, Christine A. Franklin, Bernhard Klingenberg
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 6, Problem 74CP
a.
To determine
Calculate the
Construct the probability distribution.
b.
To determine
Compute the probability distribution using the formula.
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(c) Because logistic regression predicts probabilities of outcomes, observations used to build a logistic regression model need not be independent.
A. false: all observations must be independent
B. true
C. false: only observations with the same outcome need to be independent
I ANSWERED: A. false: all observations must be independent.
(This was marked wrong but I have no idea why. Isn't this a basic assumption of logistic regression)
Business discuss
Spam filters are built on principles similar to those used in logistic regression. We fit a probability that each message is spam or not spam. We have several variables for each email. Here are a few: to_multiple=1 if there are multiple recipients, winner=1 if the word 'winner' appears in the subject line, format=1 if the email is poorly formatted, re_subj=1 if "re" appears in the subject line. A logistic model was fit to a dataset with the following output:
Estimate
SE
Z
Pr(>|Z|)
(Intercept)
-0.8161
0.086
-9.4895
0
to_multiple
-2.5651
0.3052
-8.4047
0
winner
1.5801
0.3156
5.0067
0
format
-0.1528
0.1136
-1.3451
0.1786
re_subj
-2.8401
0.363
-7.824
0
(a) Write down the model using the coefficients from the model fit.log_odds(spam) = -0.8161 + -2.5651 + to_multiple + 1.5801 winner + -0.1528 format + -2.8401 re_subj(b) Suppose we have an observation where to_multiple=0, winner=1, format=0, and re_subj=0. What is the predicted probability that this message is spam?…
Chapter 6 Solutions
Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning From Data, Books a la Carte Edition (4th Edition)
Ch. 6.1 - Rolling dice a. State in a table the probability...Ch. 6.1 - Dental Insurance You plan to purchase dental...Ch. 6.1 - San Francisco Giants hitting The table shows the...Ch. 6.1 - Best of three In a best out of three series played...Ch. 6.1 - Grade distribution An instructor always assigns...Ch. 6.1 - Selling houses Let X represent the number of homes...Ch. 6.1 - Playing the lottery The state of Ohio has several...Ch. 6.1 - Roulette A roulette wheel consists of 38 numbers,...Ch. 6.1 - More Roulette The previous exercise on roulette...Ch. 6.1 - Prob. 10PB
Ch. 6.1 - Profit and the weather From past experience, a...Ch. 6.1 - Buying on eBay You are watching two items posted...Ch. 6.1 - Selling at the right price Some companies, such as...Ch. 6.1 - Uniform distribution A random number generator is...Ch. 6.1 - TV watching A social scientist uses the General...Ch. 6.2 - Probabilities in tails For a normal distribution,...Ch. 6.2 - Probability in graph For the normal distributions...Ch. 6.2 - Empirical rule Verify the empirical rule by using...Ch. 6.2 - Central probabilities For a normal distribution,...Ch. 6.2 - z-score for given probability in tails For a...Ch. 6.2 - Probability in tails for given z-score For a...Ch. 6.2 - z-score for right-tail probability a. For the...Ch. 6.2 - Prob. 23PBCh. 6.2 - Prob. 24PBCh. 6.2 - Prob. 25PBCh. 6.2 - Coffee Machine Suppose your favorite coffee...Ch. 6.2 - Energy use An energy study in Gainesville,...Ch. 6.2 - Birth weight for boys In the United States, the...Ch. 6.2 - MDI The Mental Development Index (MDI) of the...Ch. 6.2 - Quartiles and outliers Refer to the previous...Ch. 6.2 - April precipitation Over roughly the past 100...Ch. 6.2 - Tall enough to ride? A new roller coaster at an...Ch. 6.2 - SAT versus ACT SAT math scores follow a normal...Ch. 6.2 - Relative height Refer to the normal distributions...Ch. 6.3 - Kidney transplants In kidney transplantations,...Ch. 6.3 - Compatible donors Refer to the previous exercise....Ch. 6.3 - Symmetric binomial Construct a graph similar to...Ch. 6.3 - Number of girls in a family Each newborn baby has...Ch. 6.3 - Prob. 39PBCh. 6.3 - Prob. 40PBCh. 6.3 - Passing by guessing A quiz in a statistics course...Ch. 6.3 - NBA shooting In the National Basketball...Ch. 6.3 - Season performance Refer to the previous exercise....Ch. 6.3 - Is the die balanced? A balanced die with six sides...Ch. 6.3 - Prob. 45PBCh. 6.3 - Prob. 46PBCh. 6.3 - Prob. 47PBCh. 6.3 - Checking guidelines For Example 13 on the gender...Ch. 6.3 - Class sample Four of the 20 students (20%) in a...Ch. 6.3 - Prob. 50PBCh. 6.3 - Binomial assumptions For the following random...Ch. 6 - Grandparents Let X = the number of living...Ch. 6 - Straight or boxed? Consider a Pick-3 lottery such...Ch. 6 - Auctioning paintings A collector is interested in...Ch. 6 - Prob. 55CPCh. 6 - Are you risk averse? You need to choose between...Ch. 6 - Flyers insurance An insurance company sells a...Ch. 6 - Normal probabilities For a normal distribution,...Ch. 6 - Prob. 59CPCh. 6 - Prob. 60CPCh. 6 - Quartiles If z is the positive number such that...Ch. 6 - Boys and girls birth weight Exercise 6.28...Ch. 6 - Cholesterol The American Heart Association reports...Ch. 6 - Female heights Female heights in North America...Ch. 6 - Cloning butterflies The wingspans of recently...Ch. 6 - Gestation times For 5459 pregnant women using...Ch. 6 - Used car prices Data from the Web site carmax.com...Ch. 6 - Used car deals Refer to the previous exercise....Ch. 6 - Global warming Suppose that weekly use of gasoline...Ch. 6 - Fast-food profits Macs fast-food restaurant finds...Ch. 6 - Metric height A Dutch researcher reads that male...Ch. 6 - Manufacturing tennis balls According to the rules...Ch. 6 - Brides choice of surname According to a study done...Ch. 6 - Prob. 74CPCh. 6 - Prob. 75CPCh. 6 - Prob. 76CPCh. 6 - Weather A weather forecaster states, The chance of...Ch. 6 - Dating success Based on past experience, Julio...Ch. 6 - Canadian lottery In one Canadian lottery option,...Ch. 6 - Likes on Facebook A large retail chain sends out...Ch. 6 - Likes with online credit The retail chain from the...Ch. 6 - Which distribution for sales? A salesperson uses...Ch. 6 - Best of five Example 2 gave the probability...Ch. 6 - Prob. 84CPCh. 6 - Prob. 85CPCh. 6 - Longest streak made In basketball, when the...Ch. 6 - Airline overbooking For the Boston to Chicago...Ch. 6 - Prob. 89CPCh. 6 - Prob. 90CPCh. 6 - Prob. 91CPCh. 6 - Prob. 92CPCh. 6 - Prob. 93CPCh. 6 - Prob. 94CPCh. 6 - Prob. 95CPCh. 6 - Prob. 96CPCh. 6 - Prob. 97CPCh. 6 - Prob. 98CPCh. 6 - Prob. 99CPCh. 6 - Prob. 100CPCh. 6 - Prob. 101CP
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