FIRST COURSE IN PROBABILITY (LOOSELEAF)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753751
Author: Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 6, Problem 6.29TE
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Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ 160,000,000 before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ 59,200.
Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ ____________ before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ ___________ .
A television network earns an average of $14 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $8 million each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospective program and issue a report predicting whether the given program will end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 75% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is only a 30% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.
What is the maximum value of C that the network should be willing to pay the market research firm? Enter your answer in dollars, not in million dollars.
$ __________
Calculate EVPI for this decision problem. Enter your answer in dollars, not in million…
Chapter 6 Solutions
FIRST COURSE IN PROBABILITY (LOOSELEAF)
Ch. 6 - Two fair dice are rolled. Find the joint...Ch. 6 - Suppose that 3 balls are chosen without...Ch. 6 - In Problem 8 t, suppose that the white balls are...Ch. 6 - Repeat Problem 6.2 when the ball selected is...Ch. 6 - Repeat Problem 6.3a when the ball selected is...Ch. 6 - The severity of a certain cancer is designated by...Ch. 6 - Consider a sequence of independent Bernoulli...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.8PCh. 6 - The joint probability density function of X and Y...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.10P
Ch. 6 - In Example Id, verify that f(x,y)=2exe2y,0x,0y, is...Ch. 6 - The number of people who enter a drugstore in a...Ch. 6 - A man and a woman agree to meet at a certain...Ch. 6 - An ambulance travels back and forth at a constant...Ch. 6 - The random vector (X,Y) is said to be uniformly...Ch. 6 - Suppose that n points are independently chosen at...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.17PCh. 6 - Let X1 and X2 be independent binomial random...Ch. 6 - Show that f(x,y)=1x, 0yx1 is a joint density...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.20PCh. 6 - Let f(x,y)=24xy0x1,0y1,0x+y1 and let it equal 0...Ch. 6 - The joint density function of X and Y is...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.23PCh. 6 - Consider independent trials, each of which results...Ch. 6 - Suppose that 106 people arrive at a service...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.26PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.27PCh. 6 - The time that it takes to service a car is an...Ch. 6 - The gross daily sales at a certain restaurant are...Ch. 6 - Jills bowling scores are approximately normally...Ch. 6 - According to the U.S. National Center for Health...Ch. 6 - Monthly sales are independent normal random...Ch. 6 - Let X1 and X2 be independent normal random...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.34PCh. 6 - Teams 1, 2, 3, 4 are all scheduled to play each of...Ch. 6 - Let X1,...,X10 be independent with the same...Ch. 6 - The expected number of typographical errors on a...Ch. 6 - The monthly worldwide average number of airplane...Ch. 6 - In Problem 6.4, calculate the conditional...Ch. 6 - In Problem 6.3 calculate the conditional...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.41PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.42PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.43PCh. 6 - The joint probability mass function of X and Y is...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.45PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.46PCh. 6 - An insurance company supposes that each person has...Ch. 6 - If X1,X2,X3 are independent random variables that...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.49PCh. 6 - If 3 trucks break down at points randomly...Ch. 6 - Consider a sample of size 5 from a uniform...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.52PCh. 6 - Let X(1),X(2),...,X(n) be the order statistics of...Ch. 6 - Let Z1 and Z2 be independent standard normal...Ch. 6 - Derive the distribution of the range of a sample...Ch. 6 - Let X and Y denote the coordinates of a point...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.57PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.58PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.59PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.60PCh. 6 - Repeat Problem 6.60 when X and Y are independent...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.62PCh. 6 - Prob. 6.63PCh. 6 - In Example 8b, let Yk+1=n+1i=1kYi. Show that...Ch. 6 - Consider an urn containing n balls numbered 1.. .....Ch. 6 - Suppose X,Y have a joint distribution function...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.2TECh. 6 - Prob. 6.3TECh. 6 - Solve Buffons needle problem when LD.Ch. 6 - If X and Y are independent continuous positive...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.6TECh. 6 - Prob. 6.7TECh. 6 - Let X and Y be independent continuous random...Ch. 6 - Let X1,...,Xn be independent exponential random...Ch. 6 - The lifetimes of batteries are independent...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.11TECh. 6 - Show that the jointly continuous (discrete) random...Ch. 6 - In Example 5e t, we computed the conditional...Ch. 6 - Suppose that X and Y are independent geometric...Ch. 6 - Consider a sequence of independent trials, with...Ch. 6 - If X and Y are independent binomial random...Ch. 6 - Suppose that Xi,i=1,2,3 are independent Poisson...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.18TECh. 6 - Let X1,X2,X3 be independent and identically...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.20TECh. 6 - Suppose that W, the amount of moisture in the air...Ch. 6 - Let W be a gamma random variable with parameters...Ch. 6 - A rectangular array of mn numbers arranged in n...Ch. 6 - If X is exponential with rate , find...Ch. 6 - Suppose thatF(x) is a cumulative distribution...Ch. 6 - Show that if n people are distributed at random...Ch. 6 - Suppose that X1,...,Xn are independent exponential...Ch. 6 - Establish Equation (6.2) by differentiating...Ch. 6 - Show that the median of a sample of size 2n+1 from...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.30TECh. 6 - Compute the density of the range of a sample of...Ch. 6 - Let X(1)X(2)...X(n) be the ordered values of n...Ch. 6 - Let X1,...,Xn be a set of independent and...Ch. 6 - Let X1,....Xn, be independent and identically...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.35TECh. 6 - Prob. 6.36TECh. 6 - Suppose that (X,Y) has a bivariate normal...Ch. 6 - Suppose that X has a beta distribution with...Ch. 6 - 6.39. Consider an experiment with n possible...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.40TECh. 6 - Prob. 6.41TECh. 6 - Each throw of an unfair die lands on each of the...Ch. 6 - The joint probability mass function of the random...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.3STPECh. 6 - Let r=r1+...+rk, where all ri are positive...Ch. 6 - Suppose that X, Y, and Z are independent random...Ch. 6 - Let X and Y be continuous random variables with...Ch. 6 - The joint density function of X and Y...Ch. 6 - Consider two components and three types of shocks....Ch. 6 - Consider a directory of classified advertisements...Ch. 6 - The random parts of the algorithm in Self-Test...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.11STPECh. 6 - The accompanying dartboard is a square whose sides...Ch. 6 - A model proposed for NBA basketball supposes that...Ch. 6 - Let N be a geometric random variable with...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.15STPECh. 6 - You and three other people are to place bids for...Ch. 6 - Find the probability that X1,X2,...,Xn is a...Ch. 6 - 6.18. Let 4VH and Y, be independent random...Ch. 6 - Let Z1,Z2.....Zn be independent standard normal...Ch. 6 - Let X1,X2,... be a sequence of independent and...Ch. 6 - Prove the identity P{Xs,Yt}=P{Xs}+P{Yt}+P{Xs,Yt}1...Ch. 6 - In Example 1c, find P(Xr=i,Ys=j) when ji.Ch. 6 - A Pareto random variable X with parameters a0,0...Ch. 6 - Prob. 6.24STPECh. 6 - Prob. 6.25STPECh. 6 - Let X1,...,Xn, be independent nonnegative integer...
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