An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9780134114217
Author: Richard J. Larsen, Morris L. Marx
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 5.8, Problem 3Q
(a)
To determine
To calculate: The corresponding posterior distribution.
(b)
To determine
To calculate: The squared-error loss Bayes estimate for
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Questions
An insurance company's cumulative incurred claims for the last 5 accident years are given
in the following table:
Development Year
Accident Year 0
2018
1 2 3 4
245 267 274 289 292
2019
255 276 288 294
2020
265 283 292
2021
263 278
2022
271
It can be assumed that claims are fully run off after 4 years. The premiums received for
each year are:
Accident Year Premium
2018
306
2019
312
2020
318
2021
326
2022
330
You do not need to make any allowance for inflation.
1. (a) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the basic chain ladder method.
(b) Calculate the reserve at the end of 2022 using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.
2. Comment on the differences in the reserves produced by the methods in Part 1.
Chapter 5 Solutions
An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)
Ch. 5.2 - A random sample of size...Ch. 5.2 - The number of red chips and white chips in an urn...Ch. 5.2 - Use the sample y1=8.2,y2=9.1,y3=10.6, and y4=4.9...Ch. 5.2 - Suppose a random sample of size n is drawn from...Ch. 5.2 - Given that y1=2.3,y2=1.9, and y3=4.6 is a random...Ch. 5.2 - Use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate ...Ch. 5.2 - An engineer is creating a project scheduling...Ch. 5.2 - The following data show the number of occupants in...Ch. 5.2 - For the Major League Baseball seasons from 1950...Ch. 5.2 - (a) Based on the random sample...
Ch. 5.2 - Find the maximum likelihood estimate for in the...Ch. 5.2 - A random sample of size n is taken from the pdf...Ch. 5.2 - If the random variable Y denotes an individuals...Ch. 5.2 - For the negative binomial pdf...Ch. 5.2 - The exponential pdf is a measure of lifetimes of...Ch. 5.2 - Suppose a random sample of size n is drawn from a...Ch. 5.2 - Let y1,y2,...,yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 18QCh. 5.2 - A criminologist is searching through FBI files to...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 20QCh. 5.2 - Suppose that Y1=8.3,Y2=4.9,Y3=2.6, and Y4=6.5 is a...Ch. 5.2 - Find a formula for the method of moments estimate...Ch. 5.2 - Calculate the method of moments estimate for the...Ch. 5.2 - Find the method of moments estimates for and 2,...Ch. 5.2 - Use the method of moments to derive estimates for...Ch. 5.2 - Bird songs can be characterized by the number of...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 27QCh. 5.3 - A commonly used IQ test is scaled to have a mean...Ch. 5.3 - The production of a nationally marketed detergent...Ch. 5.3 - Mercury pollution is widely recognized as a...Ch. 5.3 - A physician who has a group of thirty-eight female...Ch. 5.3 - Suppose a sample of size n is to be drawn from a...Ch. 5.3 - What confidence would be associated with each of...Ch. 5.3 - Five independent samples, each of size n, are to...Ch. 5.3 - Suppose that y1,y2,...,yn is a random sample of...Ch. 5.3 - If the standard deviation () associated with the...Ch. 5.3 - In 1927, the year he hit sixty home runs, Babe...Ch. 5.3 - A thirty-second commercial break during the...Ch. 5.3 - During one of the first beer wars in the early...Ch. 5.3 - The Pew Research Center did a survey of 2253...Ch. 5.3 - If (0.57,0.63) is a 50% confidence interval for p,...Ch. 5.3 - Suppose a coin is to be tossed n times for the...Ch. 5.3 - On the morning of November 9, 1994the day after...Ch. 5.3 - Which of the following two intervals has the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 18QCh. 5.3 - Prob. 19QCh. 5.3 - Prob. 20QCh. 5.3 - Prob. 21QCh. 5.3 - A public health official is planning for the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 23QCh. 5.3 - Given that a political poll shows that 52% of the...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 25QCh. 5.3 - Suppose that p is to be estimated by Xn and we are...Ch. 5.3 - Let p denote the true proportion of college...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 28QCh. 5.4 - Two chips are drawn without replacement from an...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose a random sample of size n=6 is drawn from...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 3QCh. 5.4 - A sample of size n=16 is drawn from a normal...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose X1,X2,...,Xn is a random sample of size n...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 6QCh. 5.4 - Let Y be the random variable described in Example...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose that 14, 10, 18, and 21 constitute a...Ch. 5.4 - A random sample of size 2, Y1 and Y2, is drawn...Ch. 5.4 - A sample of size 1 is drawn from the uniform pdf...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose that W is an unbiased estimator for . Can...Ch. 5.4 - We showed in Example 5.4.4 that 2=1ni=1n(YiY)2 is...Ch. 5.4 - As an alternative to imposing unbiasedness, an...Ch. 5.4 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.4 - An estimator n=h(W1,...,Wn) is said to be...Ch. 5.4 - Is the maximum likelihood estimator for 2 in a...Ch. 5.4 - Let X1,X2,...,Xn denote the outcomes of a series...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose that n=5 observations are taken from the...Ch. 5.4 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.4 - Given a random sample of size n from a Poisson...Ch. 5.4 - If Y1,Y2,...,Yn are random observations from a...Ch. 5.4 - Suppose that W1 is a random variable with mean ...Ch. 5.5 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample from...Ch. 5.5 - Let X1,X2,...,Xn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.5 - Suppose a random sample of size n is taken from a...Ch. 5.5 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample from the...Ch. 5.5 - Prob. 5QCh. 5.5 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.5 - Prove the equivalence of the two forms given for...Ch. 5.6 - Let X1,X2,...,Xn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.6 - Let X1,X2, and X3 be a set of three independent...Ch. 5.6 - If is sufficient for , show that any one-to-one...Ch. 5.6 - Show that 2=i=1nYi2 is sufficient for 2 if...Ch. 5.6 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.6 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.6 - Suppose a random sample of size n is drawn from...Ch. 5.6 - Suppose a random sample of size n is drawn from...Ch. 5.6 - Prob. 9QCh. 5.6 - Prob. 10QCh. 5.6 - Prob. 11QCh. 5.7 - How large a sample must be taken from a normal pdf...Ch. 5.7 - Let Y1,Y2,...,Yn be a random sample of size n from...Ch. 5.7 - Suppose Y1,Y2,...,Yn is a random sample from the...Ch. 5.7 - An estimator n is said to be squared-error...Ch. 5.7 - Suppose n=Ymax is to be used as an estimator for...Ch. 5.7 - Prob. 6QCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1QCh. 5.8 - Find the squared-error loss [L(,)=()2] Bayes...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 3QCh. 5.8 - Prob. 4QCh. 5.8 - Prob. 5QCh. 5.8 - Suppose that Y is a gamma random variable with...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 7QCh. 5.8 - Find the squared-error loss Bayes estimate for in...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 9Q
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