Chapter 5.2, Problem 1AC

Radiation Exposure

On March 28, 1979, the nuclear generating facility at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, began discharging radiation into the atmosphere. People exposed to even low levels of radiation can experience health problems ranging from very mild to severe, even causing death. A local newspaper reported that 11 babies were born with kidney problems in the three-county area surrounding the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. The expected value for that problem in infants in that area was 3. Answer the following questions.

1. What does expected value mean?

2. Would you expect the exact value of 3 all the time?

3. If a news reporter stated that the number of cases of kidney problems in newborns was nearly four times as many as was usually expected, do you think pregnant mothers living in that area would be overly concerned?

4. Is it unlikely that 11 occurred by chance?

5. Are there any other statistics that could better inform the public?

6. Assume that 3 out of 2500 babies were born with kidney problems in that three-county area the year before the accident. Also assume that 11 out of 2500 babies were born with kidney problems in that three-county area the year after the accident. What is the real percentage increase in that abnormality?

7. Do you think that pregnant mothers living in that area should be overly concerned after looking at the results in terms of rates?