Concept explainers
(a)
Introduction:
Treasury bonds (T-bonds):
These bonds involve earning periodic interest up to maturity (greater than 20 years) and consider government debt securities that are issued by the Federal government of the country.
Expectations theory:
Based on long-term (current) interest rates this theory
To determine: The expected one-year interest rates in the second year by using the expectation theory when the interest rate on one-year treasury bonds is 0.4%, 0.8% on two-year bonds, and 1.1% on three-year T-bonds.
(b)
Introduction:
Treasury bonds (T-bonds):
These bonds involve earning periodic interest up to maturity (greater than 20 years) and consider government debt securities that are issued by the Federal government of the country.
Expectations theory:
Based on long-term (current) interest rates this theory forecasts the short-term interest rates for the future where an investor receives the same amount of interest by investing in two (one-year bond and two-year bond), one after the other year. It is useful to calculate the expected returns and differentiate the investment returns in business.
To determine: The expected one-year interest rates in the third year by using the expectation theory when the interest rate on one-year treasury bonds is 1%, 0.9% on two-year bonds, and 0.8% on three-year T-bonds.
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Check out a sample textbook solution- The 3-year interest rate is 6.60%, and the 4-year interest rate is 7.90%. The liquidity premia for 3- and 4-year bonds are 0.60% and 0.9%, respectively. Calculate the adjusted forward-rate forecast for 3 periods in the future. (Round your answer to two decimal points.)arrow_forwardSuppose the current interest rate on a one-year bond is 2% and the current interest rate on a two-year bond is 4%. The term premium on a two-year bond is 1%. According to the expectations hypothesis, what interest rate should we expect on a one-year bond next year? Answer as a percentage to one decimal place and do not include symbols (e.g. $, %, commas) in your answer. Answer:arrow_forwardSuppose you can observe that 1-year bond interest rate is 4%, 2-year bond interest rate is 8%, and 3-year bond interest rate is 10% at time t. It is also known that the term premium on a 2-year bond is 1% and the term premium on a 3-year bond is 1.5%. a) What are the market's expected 1-year bond interest rates for the next two years from time t? b) How to interpret those expected short-term interest rates? (what would be the "possible" economic meanings in the expected short- term interest rates?) Discuss as least two "candidates" to explain them.arrow_forward
- Suppose the yield on a two-year-old Treasury bond is 5 percent and the yield on a one-year Treasury bond is a 4 percent. If the maturity risk premium (MRP) on these bonds is zero (0), what is the expected one-year interest rate during the second year (Year 2)?arrow_forwardSuppose we observe the 3-year Treasury security rate (1R3) to be 8 percent, the expected 1-year rate next year—E(2r1)—to be 4 percent, and the expected one-year rate the following year—E(3r1)—to be 6 percent. If the unbiased expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates holds, what is the 1-year Treasury security rate, 1R1? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)arrow_forwardThe current 1-year, 2-year, and 3 year bond interest rates are 4%, 5%, and 6%, respectively. The expectations theory of the term structure predicts that the expected 1-year bond interest rate is ___% next year and _____% the year after.arrow_forward
- Forecasting interest rates Assume the current interest rate on a one-year treasury bond(1R1) is 4.50 percent, the current rate on a two-year treasury bond (1R2) is 5.25 percent, and the current rate on a three-year treasury bond (1R3) is 6.50 percent. If the unbiased expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates is correct, what is the one-year forward rate expected on treasury bills during year 3, 3f1?arrow_forwardSuppose that the yield curve shows that the one-year bond yield is 8 percent, the two-year yield is 7 percent, and the three-year yield is 7 percent. Assume that the risk premium on the one-year bond is zero, the risk premium on the two-year bond is 1 percent, and the risk premium on the three-year bond is 2 percent. a. What are the expected one-year interest rates next year and the following year? The expected one-year interest rate next year = The expected one-year interest rate the following year b. If the risk premiums were all zero, as in the expectations hypothesis, what would the slope of the yield curve be? The slope of the yield curve would be (Click to select) % %arrow_forwardOne-year government bonds yield 6 percent and 2-year government bonds yield 5.5 percent. Assume that the expectations theory holds. What does the market believe the rate on 1-year government bonds will be one year from today?arrow_forward
- Suppose that the current one-year rate (one-year spot rate) and expected one-year government bonds over years 2, 3 and 4 are as follows: 1R₁ = 4.80%, E(2r₁) = 5.45%, E(3r₁) = 5.95%, E(41) = 6.10% Assume that there are no liquidity premiums. To the nearest basis point, what is the current rate for the four-year-maturity government bond? A. 5.57% B. 5.62% C. 5.83% D. 6.10%arrow_forwardSuppose that the current one-year rate (one-year spot rate) and expected one-year government bonds over years 2, 3 and 4 are as follows: 1R1 = 4.80%, E(2r1) = 5.45%, E(3r1) = 5.95%, E(4r1) = 6.10% Assume that there are no liquidity premiums. To the nearest basis point, what is the current rate for the four-year-maturity government bond? 5.57% 5.62% 5.83% 6.10%arrow_forwardSuppose we observe the three-year Treasury security rate (1R3) to be 4.9 percent, the expected one-year rate next year-E(21)-to be 5.4 percent, and the expected one-year rate the following year-E(301)-to be 6.4 percent. If the unbiased expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates holds, what is the one-year Treasury security rate? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your percentage answer to 2 decimal places. (e.g., 32.16)) One-year Treasury security rate %arrow_forward