Chapter 5, Problem 71CE

Flashner Marketing Research Inc. specializes in providing assessments of the prospects for women’s apparel shops in shopping malls. Al Flashner, president, reports that he assesses the prospects as good, fair, or poor. Records from previous assessments show that 60% of the time the prospects were rated as good, 30% of the time fair, and 10% of the time poor. Of those rated good, 80% made a profit the first year; of those rated fair, 60% made a profit the first year; and of those rated poor, 20% made a profit the first year. Connie’s Apparel was one of Flashner’s clients. Connie’s Apparel made a profit last year. What is the probability that it was given an original rating of poor?