Introduction To Probability And Statistics
15th Edition
ISBN: 9781337554428
Author: Mendenhall, William.
Publisher: Cengage Learning,
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4.1, Problem 25E
Table of Outcomes Use a table of outcomes to displaythe simple
25. A researcher records the gender of a child as wellas whether the child is home-schooled or not.
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
Chapter 4 Solutions
Introduction To Probability And Statistics
Ch. 4.1 - Experiment I A single die is tossed. List the...Ch. 4.1 - Experiment I A single die is tossed. List the...Ch. 4.1 - Experiment I A single die is tossed. List the...Ch. 4.1 - Experiment I A single die is tossed. List the...Ch. 4.1 - Experiment I A single die is tossed. List the...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 6ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 7ECh. 4.1 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 9ECh. 4.1 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...
Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 11ECh. 4.1 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 13ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 14ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 15ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 16ECh. 4.1 - Simple Events Define the simple events for...Ch. 4.1 - Simple Events Define the simple events for...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 19ECh. 4.1 - Simple Events Define the simple events for...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 21ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 22ECh. 4.1 - Prob. 23ECh. 4.1 - Tree Diagrams Use a tree diagram to find the...Ch. 4.1 - Table of Outcomes Use a table of outcomes to...Ch. 4.1 - Table of Outcomes Use a table of outcomes to...Ch. 4.1 - Table of Outcomes Use a table of outcomes to...Ch. 4.1 - The Urn Problem A bowl contains three red and two...Ch. 4.1 - Prob. 29ECh. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment I A single fair die is tossed....Ch. 4.2 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment II A sample space contains seven...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment III A sample space consists of five...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment III A sample space consists of five...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment III A sample space consists of five...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment III A sample space consists of five...Ch. 4.2 - Experiment III A sample space consists of five...Ch. 4.2 - Prob. 16ECh. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Spaces and Probability For the experiments in...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Sample Spaces and Probability For the experiments...Ch. 4.2 - Free Throws A particular basketball player hits70%...Ch. 4.2 - Four Coins A jar contains four coins: a nickel,a...Ch. 4.2 - Preschool or Not? A teacher randomly selects 1...Ch. 4.2 - Need Eyeglasses? A large number of adults...Ch. 4.2 - Prob. 31ECh. 4.2 - Aspirin Refer to Exercise 31 and find...Ch. 4.2 - Jury Duty Three people are randomly selected...Ch. 4.2 - Jury Duty II Refer to Exercise 33. Suppose...Ch. 4.2 - Tea Tasters A single person is hired to taste...Ch. 4.2 - -Meter Run Four equally qualified runners,John,...Ch. 4.2 - Fruit Flies In a genetics experiment, the...Ch. 4.2 - Playing the Slots A slot machine has three...Ch. 4.2 - Pepsi™ or Coke™? An experiment is conducted ata...Ch. 4.2 - Flextime A survey to determine the availability...Ch. 4.3 - The mn Rule Use the mn Rule to find the number...Ch. 4.3 - The mn Rule Use the mn Rule to find the number of...Ch. 4.3 - The mn Rule Use the mn Rule to find the number of...Ch. 4.3 - The mn Rule Use the mn Rule to find the number of...Ch. 4.3 - Permutations Evaluate the permutations inExercises...Ch. 4.3 - Permutations Evaluate the permutations in...Ch. 4.3 - Permutations Evaluate the permutations in...Ch. 4.3 - Permutations Evaluate the permutations in...Ch. 4.3 - Combinations Evaluate the combinations inExercises...Ch. 4.3 - Combinations Evaluate the combinations in...Ch. 4.3 - Combinations Evaluate the combinations in...Ch. 4.3 - Combinations Evaluate the combinations in...Ch. 4.3 - Choosing People In how many ways can youselect...Ch. 4.3 - Choosing People, again In how many ways canyou...Ch. 4.3 - The Urn Problem, again Three balls are...Ch. 4.3 - What to Wear? You own 4 pairs of jeans, 12...Ch. 4.3 - Itineraries A businessman in New York is...Ch. 4.3 - Vacation Plans Your family vacation involves...Ch. 4.3 - A Card Game Three students are playing a cardgame....Ch. 4.3 - Dinner at Gerard’s A French restaurant offers...Ch. 4.3 - Playing Poker Five cards are selected from...Ch. 4.3 - Poker II Refer to Exercise 21. You have a...Ch. 4.3 - A Hospital Survey A study is to be conducted in...Ch. 4.3 - Traffic Problems Two city council members are tobe...Ch. 4.3 - Prob. 25ECh. 4.3 - Prob. 26ECh. 4.3 - Prob. 27ECh. 4.3 - Cramming A student prepares for an exam bystudying...Ch. 4.3 - Monkey Business A monkey is given 12 blocks:3...Ch. 4.3 - Viruses A certain virus afflicted the families...Ch. 4.4 - Experiment I An experiment can result in one of...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 2ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 3ECh. 4.4 - Experiment I An experiment can result in one of...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 5ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 6ECh. 4.4 - Experiment II Suppose P(A)=.1andP(B)=.5.Answer the...Ch. 4.4 - Experiment II Suppose P(A)=.1and P(B)=.5. Answer...Ch. 4.4 - Experiment II Suppose P(A)=.1and P(B)=.5. Answer...Ch. 4.4 - Experiment II Suppose P(A)=.1and P(B)=.5. Answer...Ch. 4.4 - Experiment III An experiment can result in one...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 12ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 13ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 14ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 15ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 16ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 17ECh. 4.4 - Dice An experiment consists of tossing a single...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 19ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 20ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 21ECh. 4.4 - Drug Testing In testing prospective employees...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 23ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 24ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 25ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 26ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 27ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 28ECh. 4.4 - Starbucks or Peet’s®? A college student frequents...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 30ECh. 4.4 - Smoking and Cancer A survey of people in a...Ch. 4.4 - Smoke Detectors A smoke-detector system usestwo...Ch. 4.4 - Plant Genetics In 1865, Gregor Mendel suggesteda...Ch. 4.4 - Prob. 34ECh. 4.4 - Prob. 35ECh. 4.4 - Choosing a Mate Men and women often disagreeon how...Ch. 4.4 - Jordan and Durant Two stars of the LA Clippersand...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule I A sample is selected from one of two...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule I A sample is selected from one of two...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule I A sample is selected from one of two...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule II When an experiment is conducted,...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule II When an experiment is conducted,...Ch. 4.5 - Bayes’ Rule II When an experiment is conducted,...Ch. 4.5 - Law of Total Probability A population can...Ch. 4.5 - Violent Crime City crime records show that 20%...Ch. 4.5 - Worker Error A worker-operated machine producesa...Ch. 4.5 - Airport Security Suppose that, in a particular...Ch. 4.5 - Prob. 11ECh. 4.5 - No Pass, No Play Under the “no pass, no play”rule...Ch. 4.5 - Medical Diagnostics Different illnesses can...Ch. 4.5 - Cheating on Your Taxes? Suppose 5% of all...Ch. 4.5 - Screening Tests Suppose that a certain diseaseis...Ch. 4 - Whistle Blowers Although there is legal...Ch. 4 - DVRs A retailer sells two styles of digital...Ch. 4 - Prob. 3RWYLCh. 4 - A Reticent Salesman The probability that a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 5RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 6RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 7RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 8RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 9RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 10RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 11RWYLCh. 4 - The Match Game Two men each toss a coin....Ch. 4 - Contract Negotiations Experience has shown...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 15RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 16RWYLCh. 4 - Mass Transit Only 40% of all people in a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 18RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 19RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 20RWYLCh. 4 - Prob. 21RWYL
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