Chapter 4, Problem 87P

The data in Table 4.20 were reported by men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study on the number of teeth lost over a 1-year period (January 1, 1987, to December 31, 1987).

Table 4.20 Distribution of number of teeth lost from January 1, 1987, to December 31, 1987, among 38,905 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study

Suppose that on January 1, 1987, a man is 50 years old, that he will live for 30 more years (until 2016), and that the rate of tooth loss over this 30-year period is the same as in 1987. If a man has 13 teeth remaining on January 1, 1987, what is the probability he will need dentures (have 10 or fewer teeth remaining) during his 30-year lifetime? (Hint: Use the Poisson distribution.)